ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The mortality prediction represents a key factor in the managing of elderly hospitalized patients. Since in older subjects mortality results from a combination of biological, functional, nutritional, psychological and environmental factors, a Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) that predict short- and long-term mortality based on a standardized comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) has recently been developed and validated. OBJECTIVE: This study compares the accuracy in predicting the mortality of the MPI with a modified version of the MPI (m-MPI) that included the Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form (MNA-SF) instead of the standard MNA. DESIGN: This prospective study with a one-year follow-up included 4088 hospitalized patients aged 65 years and older. A standardized CGA that included information on functional (Activities of Daily Living, ADL and Instrumental-ADL), cognitive (Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire), risk of pressure sore (Exton-Smith Scale), comorbidities (CIRS Index), medications, living status and nutritional status (MNA and MNA-SF) was used to calculate the MPI using a previously validated algorithm. RESULTS: Higher MPI values were significantly associated with higher mortality rates with a close agreement between the estimated and the observed mortality both after 1-month (MPI1=2.8% versus m-MPI1=2.8%,p=0.946; MPI2=8.9% versus m-MPI2=9%,p=0.904; MPI3=21.9% versus m-MPI3=21.9,p=0.978) and 1-year of follow-up (MPI1=10.8% versus m-MPI1=10.5%,p=0.686; MPI2=27.3% versus m-MPI2=28%, p=0.495; MPI3=52.8% versus m-MPI3=52.7%,p=0.945). The estimated areas under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves suggested a clinically negligible difference between the two indices. CONCLUSION: The m-MPI is as sensitive as the MPI in stratifying hospitalized elderly patients into groups at varying risk of short- and long-term mortality, but with fewer items.
Subject(s)
Geriatric Assessment , Hospital Mortality , Nutrition Assessment , Surveys and Questionnaires/standards , Activities of Daily Living , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Health Status Indicators , Humans , Male , Mental Health , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , ROC CurveABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Although administration of gastroprotective drugs may reduce the risk of peptic ulcers associated with the chronic use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or aspirin, no consensus exists as to whether this co-therapy is effective for short-term prevention, particularly in old age. AIM: To evaluate the risk of peptic ulcer associated with acute and chronic non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or aspirin therapy in elderly subjects, and the influence of antisecretory treatment on this risk. METHODS: The study included 676 elderly non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or aspirin users and 2435 non-users who consecutively underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. The use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and/or aspirin as well as antisecretory drugs (H2-blockers and proton-pump inhibitors) was evaluated by a structured interview. Diagnosis of gastric and duodenal ulcer as well as Helicobacter pylori infection were carried out by endoscopy and histological examination of the gastric mucosa. RESULTS: About 47.3% of patients were acute and 52.7% chronic users of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or aspirin. The risk of peptic ulcer, adjusted for age, gender, H. pylori infection and antisecretory drug use was higher in acute (gastric ulcer: odds ratio, OR = 4.47, 95% CI: 3.19-6.26 and duodenal ulcer: OR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.73-3.31) than chronic users (gastric ulcer: OR = 2.80, 95% CI: 1.97-3.99 and duodenal ulcer: OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.22-2.33). Proton-pump inhibitor treatment was associated with a reduced risk of peptic ulcer in both acute (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.24-2.04) and chronic (OR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.15-0.67) non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs/aspirin users. Conversely, concomitant treatment with H2-blockers was associated with a significantly higher risk of peptic ulcer both in acute (OR = 10.9, 95% CI: 3.87-30.9) and chronic (OR = 6.26, 95% CI: 2.56-15.3) non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs/aspirin users than non-users. Proton-pump inhibitor treatment resulted in an absolute risk reduction of peptic ulcer by 36.6% in acute and 34.6% in chronic non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs/aspirin users; indeed, the number needed to treat to avoid one peptic ulcer in elderly non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs/aspirin users was three both in acute and chronic users. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that proton-pump inhibitor co-treatment is advisable in symptomatic elderly patients who need to be treated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and/or aspirin for a short period of time.
