Modeling the Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 and Its Delta and Omicron Variants.

Vaccination is an important means to fight against the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its variants. In this work, we propose a general susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infected-hospitalized-removed (SVEIHR) model and derive its basic and effective reproduction numbers. We set Hong Kong as an example and calculate conditions of herd immunity for multiple vaccines and disease variants. The model shows how the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong during the second and third waves of the COVID-19 pandemic would have been reduced if vaccination were available then. We then investigate the relationships between various model parameters and the cumulative number of hospitalized COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong for the ancestral, Delta, and Omicron strains. Numerical results demonstrate that the static herd immunity threshold corresponds to one percent of the population requiring hospitalization or isolation at some point in time. We also demonstrate that when the vaccination rate is high, the initial proportion of vaccinated individuals can be lowered while still maintaining the same proportion of cumulative hospitalized/isolated individuals.

A stochastic SEIHR model for COVID-19 data fluctuations.

Although deterministic compartmental models are useful for predicting the general trend of a disease's spread, they are unable to describe the random daily fluctuations in the number of new infections and hospitalizations, which is crucial in determining the necessary healthcare capacity for a specified level of risk. In this paper, we propose a stochastic SEIHR (sSEIHR) model to describe such random fluctuations and provide sufficient conditions for stochastic stability of the disease-free equilibrium, based on the basic reproduction number that we estimated. Our extensive numerical results demonstrate strong threshold behavior near the estimated basic reproduction number, suggesting that the necessary conditions for stochastic stability are close to the sufficient conditions derived. Furthermore, we found that increasing the noise level slightly reduces the final proportion of infected individuals. In addition, we analyze COVID-19 data from various regions worldwide and demonstrate that by changing only a few parameter values, our sSEIHR model can accurately describe both the general trend and the random fluctuations in the number of daily new cases in each region, allowing governments and hospitals to make more accurate caseload predictions using fewer compartments and parameters than other comparable stochastic compartmental models.

Modeling the COVID-19 Pandemic Using an SEIHR Model With Human Migration.

The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has become a worldwide problem. Due to globalization and the proliferation of international travel, many countries are now facing local epidemics. The existence of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmissions makes it more difficult to control disease transmission by isolating infectious individuals. To accurately describe and represent the spread of COVID-19, we suggest a susceptible-exposed-infected-hospitalized-removed (SEIHR) model with human migrations, where the "exposed" (asymptomatic) individuals are contagious. From this model, we derive the basic reproduction number of the disease and its relationship with the model parameters. We find that, for highly contagious diseases like COVID-19, when the adjacent region's epidemic is not severe, a large migration rate can reduce the speed of local epidemic spreading at the price of infecting the neighboring regions. In addition, since "infected" (symptomatic) patients are isolated almost immediately, the transmission rate of the epidemic is more sensitive to that of the "exposed" (asymptomatic) individuals. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of various interventions, e.g. isolation and border control, on the speed of disease propagation and the resultant demand on medical facilities, and find that a strict intervention measure can be more effective than closing the borders. Finally, we use some real historical data of COVID-19 caseloads from different regions, including Hong Kong, to validate the modified SEIHR model, and make an accurate prediction for the third wave of the outbreak in Hong Kong.

Correlations between communicability sequence entropy and transport performance in spatially embedded networks.

We investigate electric current transport performances in spatially embedded networks with total cost restriction introduced by Li et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 104, 018701 (2010)10.1103/PhysRevLett.104.018701]. Precisely, the network is built from a d-dimensional regular lattice to be improved by adding long-range connections with probability P_{ij}∼r_{ij}^{-α}, where r_{ij} is the Manhattan distance between sites i and j, and α is a variable exponent, the total length of the long-range connections is restricted. In addition, each link has a local conductance given by g_{ij}∼r_{ij}^{-C}, where the exponent C is to measure the impact of long-range connections on network flow. By calculating mean effective conductance of the network for different exponent α, we find that the optimal electric current transport conditions are obtained with α_{opt}=d+1 for all C. Interestingly, the optimal transportation condition is identical to the one obtained for optimal navigation in spatially embedded networks with total cost constraint. In addition, the phenomenon can be possibly explained by the communicability sequence entropy; we find that when α=d+1, the spatial network with total cost constraint can obtain the maximum communicability sequence entropy. The results show that the transport performance is strongly correlated with the communicability sequence entropy, which can provide an effective strategy for designing a power network with high transmission efficiency, that is, the transport performance can be optimized by improving the communicability sequence entropy of the network.

Phase synchronization on spatially embedded duplex networks with total cost constraint.

Synchronization on multiplex networks has attracted increasing attention in the past few years. We investigate collective behaviors of Kuramoto oscillators on single layer and duplex spacial networks with total cost restriction, which was introduced by Li et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 104, 018701 (2010)] and termed as the Li network afterwards. We first explore how the topology of the network influences synchronizability of Kuramoto oscillators on single layer Li networks and find that the closer the Li network is to a regular lattice, the more difficult for it to evolve into synchronization. Then, we investigate synchronizability of duplex Li networks and find that the existence of inter-layer interaction can greatly enhance inter-layer and global synchronizability. When the inter-layer coupling strength is larger than a certain critical value, inter-layer synchronization will always occur. Furthermore, on single layer Li networks, nodes with larger degrees reach global synchronization more easily than those with smaller degrees, while on duplex Li networks, due to inter-layer interaction, this phenomenon becomes much less obvious. The results are important for us to gain insight into collective behaviors of many real-world complex systems which inherently possess multiplex architecture.