Climate change impact and adaptation assessment for road drainage systems.

Climate change exhibits a clear trend of escalating frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing heightened risks to drainage systems along the existing road networks. However, very few studies to date have investigated the consequences of projected future changes in rainfall on main road drainage and the resulting risk of road flooding. The work presented in this paper builds on the limited research by introducing a probabilistic model for assessing the impact of climate change on road drainage systems, incorporating climate uncertainty and drainage system variation. The probabilistic scenario-based model and associated framework offer a practical and innovative method for estimating the impact of short-duration storms under future climates for 2071-2100, in the absence of fine-resolution spatio-temporal data. The model also facilitates the assessment of the effectiveness of a climate adaptation strategy. An illustrative case-study of a road drainage system located in the south of Ireland is presented. It was found that the probability of road flooding during intense rainfall is projected to surpass the current acceptable limits set by Irish standards. Assessment of a proactive climate adaptation strategy implemented in 2015 indicated it may need to be adjusted to further reduce climate change impacts and optimise adaptation costs.

Artificial intelligence in medicine - is too much transparency a good thing?

Some encouraging uses for AI in medicine will lead to potentially novel legal liability issues. Complex algorithms involve an opacity that creates problems for the medical and legal professions alike. As iatrogenic injury is common in medical malpractice, the medical profession is understandably concerned when AI is introduced in diagnostic and therapeutic devices and events and outcome cannot be fully explained due to the "black box" effect.A concern about machine learning algorithms is the black box issue and understanding how conclusions or outcomes are reached. The deployment of AI devices in healthcare will require an increase in a clinician's understanding of AI to increase the transparency of their use.An important aspect of medical treatment is the notion of "therapeutic privilege". This will only arise in limited circumstances and requires the clinician to make a judgment, based on reasonable grounds, that the patient's physical or mental health might be seriously harmed by providing the information.Given the complexity of AI and the black box effect, could too much AI transparency possibly overwhelm a patient, such that it may dissuade them from giving consent in circumstances where treatment is necessary and essential? In other words, too much AI transparency and information may inadvertently hinder treatment and progress.

Artificial Intelligence in Medicine: Issues When Determining Negligence.

The introduction of novel medical technology, such as artificial intelligence (AI), into traditional clinical practice presents legal liability challenges that need to be squarely addressed by litigants and courts when something goes wrong. Some of the most promising applications for the use of AI in medicine will lead to vexed liability questions. As AI in health care is in its relative infancy, there is a paucity of case law globally upon which to draw. This article analyses medical malpractice where AI is involved, what problems arise when applying the tort of negligence - such as establishing the essential elements of breach of duty of care and causation - and how can these can be addressed. Product liability under Australian Consumer Law is beyond the scope of this article. In order to address this question, the article: (1) identifies the general problems that black box AI causes in the health care sector; (2) identifies the problems that will arise in establishing breach and causation due to the "black box" nature of AI, with reference to the Civil Liability Act 2002 (NSW) and common law through two hypothetical examples; and (3) considers selected legal solutions to the problems caused by "black box" AI.

Large Regenerative Nodules and Focal Nodular Hyperplasia-Like Lesions: Definition, Pathogenesis, and Imaging Findings.

Focal nodular hyperplasia-like (FNH-like) nodules are hepatocellular lesions with similar radiologic and pathologic features as typical FNH but occur within an abnormal liver. They arise due to alteration of hepatic vasculature at both the microscopic and macroscopic levels. Although these nodules are not thought to have malignant potential, their imaging features overlap with premalignant and malignant lesions including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and arise in patients who may be at risk for HCC, posing a diagnostic and management dilemma. It is important to consider these benign entities when reviewing liver imaging of patients at risk for HCC to reduce unnecessary interventions.

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP.

Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Will predicted positive effects of climate change be enough to reverse declines of the regionally Endangered Natterjack toad in Ireland?

The global amphibian crisis is driven by a range of stressors including disease, habitat loss, and environmental contamination. The role of climate change remains poorly studied and is likely to influence environmental suitability, ranges, reproduction, and phenology. This study aimed to characterize the bioclimatic-habitat niche space of the Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) throughout its European range and to assess the impact of climate on the toad's environmental suitability and breeding behavior in Ireland, where declines in recent decades have resulted in it being regionally Red-Listed as Endangered. To address these questions, we first identified which climate variables best predict the current bioclimatic niche, fecundity (number of eggs deposit), and phenology. We then used future climate projections for two time periods (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to predict how the species range, fecundity, and phenology would change. The European range of the species was found to be limited by winter temperatures while its bioclimatic niche varied markedly throughout its range. Species distribution models suggested projected climate change will increase environmental suitability for the species throughout its range, including Ireland, but most notably in Scandinavia and the Baltic. Fecundity in Ireland was greatest during the cool temperatures of spring and after wet winters associated with ephemeral breeding pool availability. Warm, dry summers in the preceding year influenced fecundity the following spring indicative of carryover effects. Initiation of spawning was driven by spring temperatures, not rainfall. Projections suggested future climate change may increase fecundity in Ireland while spawning may commence earlier throughout the 21st century especially under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). Despite recent range contraction and population declines due to habitat deterioration, the Natterjack toad, if subject to a suitable species conservation strategy, has the potential to be a climate change winner, notwithstanding unpredictable habitat and land-use change, sea-level rise inducing coastal erosion, changes in invertebrate prey abundance, and disease.

Gastrulation : Current Concepts and Implications for Spinal Malformations.

It has been recognised for over a century that the events of gastrulation are fundamental in determining, not only the development of the neuraxis but the organisation of the entire primitive embryo. Until recently our understanding of gastrulation was based on detailed histological analysis in animal models and relatively rare human tissue preparations from aborted fetuses. Such studies resulted in a model of gastrulation that neurosurgeons have subsequently used as a means of trying to explain some of the congenital anomalies of caudal spinal cord and vertebral development that present in paediatric neurosurgical practice. Recent advances in developmental biology, in particular cellular biology and molecular genetics have offered new insights into very early development. Understanding the processes that underlie cellular interactions, gene expression and activation/inhibition of signalling pathways has changed the way embryologists view gastrulation and this has led to a shift in emphasis from the 'descriptive and morphological' to the 'mechanistic and functional'. Unfortunately, thus far it has proved difficult to translate this improved knowledge of normal development, typically derived from non-human models, into an understanding of the mechanisms underlying human malformations such as the spinal dysraphisms and anomalies of caudal development. A paediatric neurosurgeons perspective of current concepts in gastrulation is presented along with a critical review of the current hypotheses of human malformations that have been attributed to disorders of this stage of embryogenesis.

Creating a better journey of care for patients with heart valve disease.

Heart valve disease has been described as 'the next cardiac epidemic', with prevalence expected to double by 2040 and triple by 2060 due to the ageing of the population. Yet until now, it has been characterized by scarce data, limited research, and low general awareness compared with other cardiovascular diseases. Effective treatment options exist for heart valve disease, and early detection and treatment can dramatically change disease progression, improve quality of life, and reduce mortality. Unfortunately, in too many patients, heart valve disease is undetected, undiagnosed, untreated, or treated too late, leading to avoidable deaths and costs, and significant compromises to people's quality of life. These gaps in the patient pathway can be remedied through appropriate policy action, with a focus on: early detection and diagnosis; timely intervention; patient-centred follow-up care; patient engagement and empowerment; psychological support; and better data to guide practice. Ensuring all patients have access to appropriate diagnosis and care without delays is imperative as we look towards rebuilding stronger and more resilient health systems, and 'build back better' after the coronavirus disease-19 pandemic.

Atlantoaxial rotatory fixation in childhood: a staged management strategy incorporating manipulation under anaesthesia.

AIMS: The aims were to evaluate the safety of manipulation under anaesthesia (MUA) for atlantoaxial rotatory fixation (AARF) and the relative efficacy of rigid collar vs halo-body orthosis (HBO) in avoiding relapse and the need for open surgery. METHODS: Cases of CT-verified AARF treated by MUA were identified from a neurosurgical operative database. Demographic details, time to presentation and aetiology of AARF were ascertained through case note review. Cases were divided according to method of immobilisation after successful reduction, either rigid collar (group 1) or HBO (group 2). The primary outcome measure was relapse requiring open surgical arthrodesis. RESULTS: Thirty-three patients (2.2-12.7 years) satisfied inclusion criteria. Time to presentation varied from 1 day to 18 months. There were 19 patients in group 1 and 14 in group 2. There were no adverse events associated with MUA. 9/19 (47%) patients in group 1 resolved without need for further treatment compared with 10/14 (71%) in group 2 (p = 0.15). Of the 10 patients who failed group 1 treatment, four resolved after HBO. A total of ten patients (30%) failed treatment and required open surgery. CONCLUSIONS: MUA is a safe procedure for AARF where initial conservative measures have failed. MUA followed by immobilisation avoids the need for open surgery in over two thirds of cases. Immobilisation by cervical collar appears equally effective to HBO as an initial management, and so a step-wise approach may be reasonable. Delayed presentation may be a risk factor for relapse and need for open surgery.

Gastrulation : Current Concepts and Implications for Spinal Malformations

It has been recognised for over a century that the events of gastrulation are fundamental in determining, not only the development of the neuraxis but the organisation of the entire primitive embryo. Until recently our understanding of gastrulation was based on detailed histological analysis in animal models and relatively rare human tissue preparations from aborted fetuses. Such studies resulted in a model of gastrulation that neurosurgeons have subsequently used as a means of trying to explain some of the congenital anomalies of caudal spinal cord and vertebral development that present in paediatric neurosurgical practice. Recent advances in developmental biology, in particular cellular biology and molecular genetics have offered new insights into very early development. Understanding the processes that underlie cellular interactions, gene expression and activation/inhibition of signalling pathways has changed the way embryologists view gastrulation and this has led to a shift in emphasis from the ‘descriptive and morphological’ to the ‘mechanistic and functional’. Unfortunately, thus far it has proved difficult to translate this improved knowledge of normal development, typically derived from non-human models, into an understanding of the mechanisms underlying human malformations such as the spinal dysraphisms and anomalies of caudal development. A paediatric neurosurgeons perspective of current concepts in gastrulation is presented along with a critical review of the current hypotheses of human malformations that have been attributed to disorders of this stage of embryogenesis.

Gastrulation : Current Concepts and Implications for Spinal Malformations

It has been recognised for over a century that the events of gastrulation are fundamental in determining, not only the development of the neuraxis but the organisation of the entire primitive embryo. Until recently our understanding of gastrulation was based on detailed histological analysis in animal models and relatively rare human tissue preparations from aborted fetuses. Such studies resulted in a model of gastrulation that neurosurgeons have subsequently used as a means of trying to explain some of the congenital anomalies of caudal spinal cord and vertebral development that present in paediatric neurosurgical practice. Recent advances in developmental biology, in particular cellular biology and molecular genetics have offered new insights into very early development. Understanding the processes that underlie cellular interactions, gene expression and activation/inhibition of signalling pathways has changed the way embryologists view gastrulation and this has led to a shift in emphasis from the ‘descriptive and morphological’ to the ‘mechanistic and functional’. Unfortunately, thus far it has proved difficult to translate this improved knowledge of normal development, typically derived from non-human models, into an understanding of the mechanisms underlying human malformations such as the spinal dysraphisms and anomalies of caudal development. A paediatric neurosurgeons perspective of current concepts in gastrulation is presented along with a critical review of the current hypotheses of human malformations that have been attributed to disorders of this stage of embryogenesis.

Effectiveness of an avatar educational application for improving heart failure patients' knowledge and self-care behaviors: A pragmatic randomized controlled trial.

AIM: To evaluate the effectiveness of education using avatars for improving patients' heart failure knowledge and self-care. BACKGROUND: A lack of knowledge and self-care contributes to poor outcomes and rehospitalization for people with heart failure. DESIGN: A multi-centred, non-blinded pragmatic randomized controlled trial. METHODS: Heart failure patients were randomly assigned to intervention (avatar education application) or usual care groups. Participants were followed up at baseline, 30 and 90 days. ANCOVA was used to compare the scores of heart failure knowledge and self-care, between the two groups. Fisher's exact test was used to compare the two groups' heart failure-cause readmission. Bivariate exact binary logistic regression was used to identify the predictors associated with baseline levels of knowledge. RESULTS: A total of 36 participants were recruited (between October 2018 - March 2019). The mean age of participants was 67.5 (SD 11.3) years. At enrolment, approximately half (47.2%) have been living with Heart Failure for over 5 years. Two groups were comparable at baseline in their demographic and clinical characteristics. At 90 days, the intervention group participants had a higher increase in knowledge score on the Dutch Heart Failure Knowledge Scales compared with the control group (22.2% versus 3.7% P = .002, partial η2  = 0.262, 95% CI -2.755 to -0.686). There was no between-group difference observed at 30- or 90-day follow-up, on self-care behaviour (Self-care of heart failure index) or healthcare use. Overall satisfaction with the avatar app was 91.3%. CONCLUSION: The addition of a co-designed avatar app to usual care improved knowledge in our group of Heart Failure participants at 30 days and continued to increase up to 90 days. The results suggest that our avatar app was perceived as an enjoyable and engaging means of delivering critical knowledge and self-care information. IMPACT: Heart failure is associated with poor clinical outcomes (i.e., readmission rates and mortality rate) and substantial economic burden. The effectiveness of Heart Failure patient education using avatar have not been investigated previously. In this study, the avatar app improved knowledge and self-care behaviours. This innovation could be used at the bedside, at home by nurses, patients and families. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Trial Registry ACTRN12617001403325.

Effect of Echo Times on Prostate Cancer Detection on T2-Weighted Images.

PURPOSE: To compare the effect of different echo times (TE) on the detection of prostate cancer (PCa) on T2-weighted MR images. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study recruited patients (n = 38) with histologically confirmed PCa who underwent preoperative 3T MRI. Three radiologists independently marked region on interests (ROIs) on suspected PCa lesions on T2-weighted images at different TEs: 90, 150, and 180 ms obtained with Turbo Spin Echo imaging protocol with multiple echoes. The ROIs were assigned a value 1-5 indicating the reviewer's confidence in accurately detecting PCa. These ROIs were compared to histologically confirmed PCa (n = 95) on whole mount prostatectomy sections to calculate sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), and confidence score. RESULTS: Two radiologists (R1, R2) showed significantly increased sensitivity for PCa detection at 180 ms TE compared to 90 ms (R1: 43.2, 50.5, 50.5%, R2: 45.3, 44.2, 53.7% at TE of 90, 150, 180 ms, respectively) (p = 0.048, 0.033 for R1 and R2). Sensitivity was similar for radiologist 3 (45.3%-46.3%) at different TE values (p = 0.953). No significant difference in the PPV (R1: 64.1%-70.6%, R2: 46.7%-56.0%, R3: 70.5%-81.5%) and the confidence score assigned (R1: 4.6-4.8, R2: 4.6-4.8 R3: 4.3-4.4) was found for either of the radiologists. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest improved detection of PCa with similar PPV and confidence scores when higher TE values are utilized for T2-weighted image acquisition.

Receding ice drove parallel expansions in Southern Ocean penguins.

Climate shifts are key drivers of ecosystem change. Despite the critical importance of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean for global climate, the extent of climate-driven ecological change in this region remains controversial. In particular, the biological effects of changing sea ice conditions are poorly understood. We hypothesize that rapid postglacial reductions in sea ice drove biological shifts across multiple widespread Southern Ocean species. We test for demographic shifts driven by climate events over recent millennia by analyzing population genomic datasets spanning 3 penguin genera (Eudyptes, Pygoscelis, and Aptenodytes). Demographic analyses for multiple species (macaroni/royal, eastern rockhopper, Adélie, gentoo, king, and emperor) currently inhabiting southern coastlines affected by heavy sea ice conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) yielded genetic signatures of near-simultaneous population expansions associated with postglacial warming. Populations of the ice-adapted emperor penguin are inferred to have expanded slightly earlier than those of species requiring ice-free terrain. These concerted high-latitude expansion events contrast with relatively stable or declining demographic histories inferred for 4 penguin species (northern rockhopper, western rockhopper, Fiordland crested, and Snares crested) that apparently persisted throughout the LGM in ice-free habitats. Limited genetic structure detected in all ice-affected species across the vast Southern Ocean may reflect both rapid postglacial colonization of subantarctic and Antarctic shores, in addition to recent genetic exchange among populations. Together, these analyses highlight dramatic, ecosystem-wide responses to past Southern Ocean climate change and suggest potential for further shifts as warming continues.

Personalized Moderate-Intensity Exercise Training Combined with High-Intensity Interval Training Enhances Training Responsiveness.

This study sought to determine if personalized moderate-intensity continuous exercise training (MICT) combined with high-intensity interval training (HIIT) was more effective at improving comprehensive training responsiveness than MICT alone. Apparently healthy, but physically inactive men and women (n = 54) were randomized to a non-exercise control group or one of two 13-week exercise training groups: (1) a personalized MICT + HIIT aerobic and resistance training program based on the American Council on Exercise guidelines, or (2) a standardized MICT aerobic and resistance training program designed according to current American College of Sports Medicine guidelines. Mean changes in maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) and Metabolic (MetS) z-score in the personalized MICT + HIIT group were more favorable (p < 0.05) when compared to both the standardized MICT and control groups. Additionally, on the individual level, there were positive improvements in VO2max (Δ > 4.9%) and MetS z-score (Δ ≤ -0.48) in 100% (16/16) of participants in the personalized MICT + HIIT group. In the present study, a personalized exercise prescription combining MICT + HIIT in conjunction with resistance training elicited greater improvements in VO2max, MetS z-score reductions, and diminished inter-individual variation in VO2max and cardiometabolic training responses when compared to standardized MICT.

Parent's Cardiorespiratory Fitness, Body Mass, and Chronic Disease Status Is Associated with Metabolic Syndrome in Young Adults: A Preliminary Study.

We sought to determine if there was an intergenerational association between parental weight, cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), and disease status, with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetSyn) in their young adult offspring. Young adults (n = 270, 21 ± 1 years, 53.3% female) were assessed for MetSyn and self-reported parent's CRF, body mass status, and disease status. MetSyn was present in 11.9% of participants, 27.4% had one or two components, and 58.5% had no components. A significantly higher percentage (93.9%) of young adults with MetSyn identified at least one parent as being overweight or obese, 84.8% reported low parental CRF and 87.9% reported a parent with disease (all p < 0.017). MetSyn in offspring is more likely when parents are perceived to have low CRF, increased body mass, and a diagnosis of disease. Evaluating the offspring of people with low CRF, elevated body mass, or who have a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or diabetes should be considered to promote early identification and treatment of young adults to reduce future premature CVD in these at-risk individuals.

Prognosticating Outcomes in Interstitial Lung Disease by Mediastinal Lymph Node Assessment. An Observational Cohort Study with Independent Validation.

RATIONALE: Mediastinal lymph node (MLN) enlargement on chest computed tomography (CT) is prevalent in patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) and may reflect immunologic activation and subsequent cytokine-mediated immune cell trafficking. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine whether MLN enlargement on chest CT predicts clinical outcomes and circulating cytokine levels in ILD. METHODS: MLN measurements were obtained from chest CT scans of patients with ILD at baseline evaluation over a 10-year period. Patients with sarcoidosis and drug toxicity-related ILD were excluded. MLN diameter and location were assessed. Plasma cytokine levels were analyzed in a subset of patients. The primary outcome was transplant-free survival (TFS). Secondary outcomes included all-cause and respiratory hospitalizations, lung function, and plasma cytokine concentrations. Cox regression was used to assess mortality risk. Outcomes were assessed in three independent ILD cohorts. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Chest CT scans were assessed in 1,094 patients (mean age, 64 yr; 52% male). MLN enlargement (≥10 mm) was present in 66% (n = 726) and strongly predicted TFS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-2.10; P = 0.008) and risk of all-cause and respiratory hospitalizations (internal rate of return [IRR], 1.52; 95% CI, 1.17-1.98; P = 0.002; and IRR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.15-2.53; P = 0.008, respectively) when compared with subjects with MLN <10 mm. Patients with MLN enlargement had lower lung function and decreased plasma concentrations of soluble CD40L (376 pg/ml vs. 505 pg/ml, P = 0.001) compared with those without MLN enlargement. Plasma IL-10 concentration >45 pg/ml predicted mortality (HR, 4.21; 95% CI, 1.21-14.68; P = 0.024). Independent analysis of external datasets confirmed these findings. CONCLUSIONS: MLN enlargement predicts TFS and hospitalization risk in ILD and is associated with decreased levels of a key circulating cytokine, soluble CD40L. Incorporating MLN and cytokine findings into current prediction models might improve ILD prognostication.

The Effect of Detraining after a Period of Training on Cardiometabolic Health in Previously Sedentary Individuals.

The purpose of this study was to quantify the time-magnitude changes in cardiometabolic health outcomes that occur with cessation of regular exercise training. All participants (n = 22) performed baseline testing, completed a 13-week exercise program, and completed post-program testing. Upon completion of the 13-week exercise program, participants were randomized to one of the following two treatment groups: (1) the treatment group that continued their exercise for 4 weeks (TRAIN); or (2) the treatment group that discontinued exercise (DETRAIN). Changes from baseline to 13 weeks in both the TRAIN and DETRAIN treatment groups for maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max), body fat percentage, mean arterial pressure, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides were significantly favourable (p < 0.05). VO2max, body fat percentage, and favourable cardiometabolic health adaptations continued to improve (p < 0.05) with an additional one month of exercise training. Upon cessation of exercise, all measures of VO2max and body fat percentage, along with mean arterial pressure, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides significantly worsened (p < 0.05) in the DETRAIN treatment group. Favourable training adaptations were further enhanced with an additional month of continued exercise training, and cessation of regular exercise rapidly abolished all training adaptations within one month. These novel findings underscore the importance of sustained and uninterrupted exercise training.

Minimal climate change impacts on natural organic matter forecasted for a potable water supply in Ireland.

Natural organic matter poses an increasing challenge to water managers because of its potential adverse impacts on water treatment and distribution, and subsequently human health. Projections were made of impacts of climate change on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the primarily agricultural Boyne catchment which is used as a potable water supply in Ireland. The results indicated that excluding a potential rise in extreme precipitation, future projected loads are not dissimilar to those observed under current conditions. This is because projected increases in DOC concentrations are offset by corresponding decreases in precipitation and hence river flow. However, the results presented assume no changes in land use and highlight the predicted increase in DOC loads from abstracted waters at water treatment plants.