A cost-effectiveness analysis of a program to control rheumatic fever and rheumatic heart disease in Pinar del Rio, Cuba.

BACKGROUND: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) persist in many low- and middle-income countries. To date, the cost-effectiveness of population-based, combined primary and secondary prevention strategies has not been assessed. In the Pinar del Rio province of Cuba, a comprehensive ARF/RHD control program was undertaken over 1986-1996. The present study analyzes the cost-effectiveness of this Cuban program. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a decision tree model based on the natural history of ARF/RHD, comparing the costs and effectiveness of the 10-year Cuban program to a "do nothing" approach. Our population of interest was the cohort of children aged 5-24 years resident in Pinar del Rio in 1986. We assessed costs and health outcomes over a lifetime horizon, and we took the healthcare system perspective on costs but did not apply a discount rate. We used epidemiologic, clinical, and direct medical cost inputs that were previously collected for publications on the Cuban program. We estimated health gains as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted using standard approaches developed for the Global Burden of Disease studies. Cost-effectiveness acceptability thresholds were defined by one and three times per capita gross domestic product per DALY averted. We also conducted an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations and several scenario analyses exploring the impact of alternative assumptions about the program's effects and costs. We found that, compared to doing nothing, the Cuban program averted 5051 DALYs (1844 per 100,000 school-aged children) and saved $7,848,590 (2010 USD) despite a total program cost of $202,890 over 10 years. In the scenario analyses, the program remained cost saving when a lower level of effectiveness and a reduction in averted years of life lost were assumed. In a worst-case scenario including 20-fold higher costs, the program still had a 100% of being cost-effective and an 85% chance of being cost saving. CONCLUSIONS: A 10-year program to control ARF/RHD in Pinar del Rio, Cuba dramatically reduced morbidity and premature mortality in children and young adults and was cost saving. The results of our analysis were robust to higher program costs and more conservative assumptions about the program's effectiveness. It is possible that the program's effectiveness resulted from synergies between primary and secondary prevention strategies. The findings of this study have implications for non-communicable disease policymaking in other resource-limited settings.

Total cardiovascular risk assessment and management using two prediction tools, with and without blood cholesterol.

INTRODUCTION: Over the last decade, total cardiovascular risk assessment and management has been recommended by cardiovascular prevention guidelines in most high-income countries and by WHO. Cardiovascular risk prediction charts have been developed based on multivariate equations of values of some well-known risk factors such as age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure and diabetes, including or omitting total blood cholesterol. OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study were: to determine the distribution of cardiovascular risk in a Cuban population using the WHO/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts with and without cholesterol; and to assess applicability of the risk prediction tool without cholesterol in a middle-income country, by evaluating concordance between the two approaches and comparing projected drug requirements resulting from each (at risk thresholds of ≥20% and ≥30%) and for the single-risk-factor approach. METHODS: From April through December 2008, a cross-sectional study was conducted in 1287 persons (85.8% of the sample selected), aged 40-80 years living in a polyclinic catchment area of Havana, Cuba, based on the protocol and data from a WHO multinational study. The study used the two sets of the WHO and the International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts, with and without cholesterol. Percentages and means were calculated, as well as prevalence (%) of risk factors. The chi-square test was used to compare means (p ≤0.05). Concordance between the two prediction charts was calculated for different risk levels, using the chart with cholesterol as a reference. RESULTS: Using the risk assessment tools with and without cholesterol, 97.1% and 95.4% respectively of the study population were in the ten-year cardiovascular risk category of <20%, while 2.9% and 4.6% respectively were in the category of ≥20%. Risk categories were concordant in 88.1% of the population; overestimation was higher among the nonconcordant (136/153). When risk assessment did not include cholesterol, there was 2.6% (34/1287) overestimation of drug requirements and 0.5% (6/1287) underestimation, compared to estimates including cholesterol. CONCLUSION: Total cardiovascular risk assessment using the WHO/ISH charts without cholesterol could be a useful approach to predict cardiovascular risk in settings where cholesterol cannot be measured. This does not introduce overconsumption of drugs, but does enable better targeting of resources to those who are more likely to develop cardiovascular disease. KEYWORDS Cardiology, risk assessment, health risk appraisal, hypertension, health policy, cost savings, atherosclerosis, Cuba.

Total cardiovascular risk approach to improve efficiency of cardiovascular prevention in resource constrain settings.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the population distribution of cardiovascular risk in eight low- and middle-income countries and compare the cost of drug treatment based on cardiovascular risk (cardiovascular risk thresholds ≥ 30%/≥ 40%) with single risk factor cutoff levels. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Using World Health Organization (WHO) and the International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts, cardiovascular risk was categorized in a cross-sectional study of 8,625 randomly selected people aged 40-80 years (mean age, 54.6 years) from defined geographic regions of Nigeria, Iran, China, Pakistan, Georgia, Nepal, Cuba, and Sri Lanka. Cost estimates for drug therapy were calculated for three countries. RESULTS: A large fraction (90.0-98.9%) of the study population has a 10-year cardiovascular risk <20%. Only 0.2-4.8% are in the high-risk categories (≥ 30%). Adopting a total risk approach and WHO guidelines recommendations would restrict unnecessary drug treatment and reduce the drug costs significantly. CONCLUSION: Adopting a total cardiovascular risk approach instead of a single risk factor approach reduces health care expenditure by reducing drug costs. Therefore, limited resources can be more efficiently used to target high-risk people who will benefit the most. This strategy needs to be complemented with population-wide measures to shift the cardiovascular risk distribution of the whole population.

Aterosclerosis en la juventud: I. Patomorfología y Morfometría según edad y sexo, utilizando el Sistema Aterométrico

Se analizaron 966 aortas torácicas, 947 aortas abdominales y 958 arterias coronarias derechas de autopsias de niños y jóvenes de edades comprendidas entre 5 y 34 años, procedentes de 18 países de 5 continentes, como parte de una investigación multinacional organizada por la Organización Mundial de la Salud y la Federación Internacional de Sociedades de Cardiología desde 1986 a 1996. Para el estudio patomorfológico y morfométrico de las arterias se utilizó el sistema aterométrico, metodología considerada idónea para la caracterización de la lesión aterosclerótica en cualquier arteria, sector vascular o grupo de pacientes. Este sistema permitió mediante el análisis cualitativo, identificar las lesiones ateroscleróticas y mediante el cuantitativo, medir las áreas ocupadas por cada una de ellas y estimar o ponderar sus valores de obstrucción y estenosis intrarterial. Se analizaron los fallecidos según su edad y sexo. Se dividieron en 3 grupos de edades: de 5 a 14, de 15 a 24 y de 25 a 34 años. Los resultados más relevantes fueron: a) la confirmación de que la aterosclerosis progresa siempre con la edad en los 2 sexos; b) que las estrías adiposas están presentes desde la más temprana edad independientemente del país de procedencia, clima, tipo de alimentación, hábitos y estilos de vida; c) que el progreso más acelerado de las estrías adiposas se encontró entre las edades de 15 a 24 años; d) que las placas fibrosas comienzan a presentarse lentamente a partir de la segunda década de la vida y progresan notablemente a partir de la tercera; e) que las placas graves son excepcionales antes de los 30 años de edad y a partir de este momento progresan lentamente.

966 thoracic aortas, 947 abdominal aortas and 958 right coronary arteries were analyzed in autopsied children and young people aged 5 to 34 years from 18 countries in 5 continents, as part of a multinational research study from 1986 to 1996 organized by the World Health Organization and the International Societies Federation of Cardiology. The atherometric system, which is considered to be an ideal methodology to characterize the atherosclerotic lesion in any artery, vascular area or group of patients, was used for the pathomorphological and morphometric study of the arteries. This system allowed to detect the atherosclerotic lesions by a qualitative analysis and to measure the areas occupied by them and estimate/weigh their obstruction and intraarterial stenosis indices by the quantitative analysis. The deceased were examined by age and sex and divided into 3 age groups: 5 to 14, 15 to 24 and 25 to 34 years. The most relevant results which were confirmed by this study were: a) the atherosclerosis increases with rising age level in males and females alike.b) fatty steaks begin with the earliest age regardless of the country of origin, climate, type of food, habits and ways of life.c) the fastest progression in fatty streaks was found in people aged 15 to 24 years. d) fibrous plaques slowly occur during the second decade of life and remarkably progreses in the third decade of life. e) the severe plaques exceptionally occur before the 30 years-old age and from that moment on, the slowly develop.