Sources of bias in applying close-kin mark-recapture to terrestrial game species with different life histories.

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) is a method analogous to traditional mark-recapture but without requiring recapture of individuals. Instead, multilocus genotypes (genetic marks) are used to identify related individuals in one or more sampling occasions, which enables the opportunistic use of samples from harvested wildlife. To apply the method accurately, it is important to build appropriate CKMR models that do not violate assumptions linked to the species' and population's biology and sampling methods. In this study, we evaluated the implications of fitting overly simplistic CKMR models to populations with complex reproductive success dynamics or selective sampling. We used forward-in-time, individual-based simulations to evaluate the accuracy and precision of CKMR abundance and survival estimates in species with different longevities, mating systems, and sampling strategies. Simulated populations approximated a range of life histories among game species of North America with lethal sampling to evaluate the potential of using harvested samples to estimate population size. Our simulations show that CKMR can yield nontrivial biases in both survival and abundance estimates, unless influential life history traits and selective sampling are explicitly accounted for in the modeling framework. The number of kin pairs observed in the sample, in combination with the type of kinship used in the model (parent-offspring pairs and/or half-sibling pairs), can affect the precision and/or accuracy of the estimates. CKMR is a promising method that will likely see an increasing number of applications in the field as costs of genetic analysis continue to decline. Our work highlights the importance of applying population-specific CKMR models that consider relevant demographic parameters, individual covariates, and the protocol through which individuals were sampled.

Female American black bears do not alter space use or movements to reduce infanticide risk.

Infanticide occurs in a variety of animal species and infanticide risk has large implications for the evolution of behavior. Further, the sex hypothesis of sexual segregation predicts that for species in which infanticide occurs, females with dependent young will avoid males to reduce risk of sexually-selected infanticide. Infanticide risk-avoidance behavior has been studied primarily in social species, but also occurs in some solitary species. We used generalized linear mixed models to determine if space use and movements of female American black bears (Ursus americanus) during the breeding season were consistent with the sex hypothesis of sexual segregation in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA. Space use and movements of female black bears (n = 16) were not consistent with avoidance behavior to reduce sexually-selected infanticide risk. Females with cubs occupied core areas (mean = 4.64 km2, standard error [SE] = 1.28) and home ranges (mean = 19.46 km2, SE = 5.10) of similar size to females without cubs (core area [mean = 4.11 km2, SE = 0.59]; home range [mean = 16.07 km2, SE = 2.26]), and those core areas and home ranges were not in areas with lesser relative probability of male use. Additionally, females with cubs did not reduce movements during times of day when male movements were greatest. As female bears do avoid potentially infanticidal males in populations with greater levels of infanticide, female black bears may exhibit variation in avoidance behavior based on the occurrence of infanticide.