Prediction of Survival after 48 Hours of Intensive Unit Care following Repair of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm-Multicentric Study for External Validation of a New Prediction Score for 30-Day Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA) remains a critical life-threatening condition. We aimed to evaluate rAAA management in our center focusing on predictors of mortality at 48 hr of intensive care unit (ICU) and to develop a new mortality prediction score considering data at 48 hr postprocedure. External validation of the modified score with patient data from independent vascular surgery centers was subsequently pursued. METHODS: Clinical data of all patients admitted in our center from January 2010 to December 2017 with the diagnosis of rAAA were retrospectively reviewed for the development of the mortality prediction score. Subsequently, clinical data from patients admitted at independent centers from January 2010 to December 2017 were reviewed for external validation of the score. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS Version 25. RESULTS: A total of 78 patients were included in the first part of the study: 21 endovascular aneurysm repairs (EVARs), 56 open repairs (ORs), and 1 case of conservative management. Intraoperative mortality in EVAR and OR groups was 0% vs. 24.6%, respectively (P = 0.012). Thirty-day mortality reached 50% and 33% in the OR and EVAR groups. For patients alive at 48 hr, 30-day mortality diminished to 27.6%. Several preoperative predictors of outcome were identified: smoking (P = 0.004), hemodynamic instability(P = 0.004), and elevated international normalized ratio (P < 0.0001). Dutch Aneurysm Score and Vascular Study Group of New England Score (VSGNE) were also significant predictors of outcome (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [ROC AUC] 0.89 and 0.79, respectively; P < 0.0001). At 48 hr of ICU stay, high lactate level, high Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, need for hemodyalitic technique, and hemodynamic instability were significant risk predictors for 30-day mortality (P < 0.05). VSGNE score was modified with the inclusion of 2 variables: hemodynamic instability and lactate level at 48 hr and a new score was attained-Postoperative Aneurysm Score (PAS). Comparing AUC for VSGNE and PAS for patients alive at 48 hr, the latter was significantly better (AUC 0.775 vs. 0.852, P = 0.039). The PAS was applied and validated in 3 independent vascular surgery centers (AUC VSGNE 0.782 vs. AUC PAS 0.820, P = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: Despite recent evidence on preoperative predictors of survival in an era when both EVAR and OR are available, emergent decision to withhold life-saving treatment will always be extremely difficult. Therefore, the policy in our department is to try surgical repair in all cases. It remains important, however, to identify whether late deaths can be predicted, so that unnecessary prolonged treatment can be avoided. A PAS was delineated predicting 30-day mortality significantly better in patients alive at 48 hr. The score was externally applied and validated in independent centers, corroborating the score's usefulness.

Aortic Curvature Remodeling after Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair: Assessing Device Conformability, Using Image Vector Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Aortic arch curvature can be straightened by endograft placement. However, different measurement methods with dissimilar follow-up and endografts have been published. The aim of this study was to corroborate, for the first time, the pliability of the Conformable Gore TAG Thoracic Endoprosthesis (W.L. Gore and Associates, Flagstaff, AZ, USA) into the aortic arch, using different image vector analysis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We, retrospectively, analyzed patients primarily treated for thoracic aortic aneurysms and blunt traumatic aortic injuries by means of a Conformable Gore TAG Thoracic Endoprosthesis endograft proximally sealed into the aortic arch (zones Z1-Z3) in five different Spanish centers, between 2010 and 2017. The preoperative, one-month and six-month postoperative, computed tomography angiographies (CTAs) were obtained, creating accurate 3D center lumen line and external lumen line from the aortic valve to the renal arteries. Three different image analysis methods were used to compare modifications of the aortic curvature: first, segment analysis (angulations of the center lumen line when divided into seven precise segments, examining anterior-posterior, right-left, and cranial-caudal displacement), second, center lumen line analysis (bending of the center lumen line itself in seven definite points), and third, expected behavior (length of the endograft in the external lumen line). Two independent observers performed a blind analysis of all CTAs. Changes between preoperative and postoperative CTAs at one and six months are compared, and differences are viewed between cases sealed proximally (Z1-Z2) and distally (Z3) into the aortic arch. RESULTS: We analyzed 37 cases. At 1- and 6-month follow-ups, minimal changes occurred first in segment analysis (only a slight decrease of -2.0° in the XY plane at 10 cm from the brachiocephalic trunk at six-month follow-up was seen, P = 0.027). Second, center lumen line analysis again only showed negligible aortic curvature straightening (+3.5° at 10 cm from the brachiocephalic trunk at one month, P = 0.006, disappearing at six-month follow-up). Finally, good device length predictability was shown (interclass correlation coefficients: 0.995 and 0.994 at one and six months, P > 0.001). No differences were seen between cases proximally sealed into the proximal and distal aortic arch. CONCLUSIONS: Conformable Gore TAG Thoracic Endoprosthesis thoracic endograft showed a good pliability into the aortic arch and proximal thoracic aorta, with minimal changes in the aortic curvature after endograft placement in the short-term follow-up (up to six months). In addition, final endograft length into outer aortic curvature is highly predictable.