Effects of wind speed and wind direction on crop yield forecasting using dynamic time warping and an ensembled learning model.

The cultivation of cashew crops carries numerous economic advantages, and countries worldwide that produce this crop face a high demand. The effects of wind speed and wind direction on crop yield prediction using proficient deep learning algorithms are less emphasized or researched. We propose a combination of advanced deep learning techniques, specifically focusing on long short-term memory (LSTM) and random forest models. We intend to enhance this ensemble model using dynamic time warping (DTW) to assess the spatiotemporal data (wind speed and wind direction) similarities within Jaman North, Jaman South, and Wenchi with their respective production yield. In the Bono region of Ghana, these three areas are crucial for cashew production. The LSTM-DTW-RF model with wind speed and wind direction achieved an R2 score of 0.847 and the LSTM-RF model without these two key features R2 score of (0.74). Both models were evaluated using the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, which is commonly used in time series analysis to assess stationarity, where the LSTM-DTW-RF achieved a 90% level of confidence, while LSTM-RF attained an 87.99% level. Among the three municipalities, Jaman South had the highest evaluation scores for the model, with an RMSE of 0.883, an R2 of 0.835, and an MBE of 0.212 when comparing actual and predicted values for Wenchi. In terms of the annual average wind direction, Jaman North recorded (270.5 SW°), Jaman South recorded (274.8 SW°), and Wenchi recorded (272.6 SW°). The DTW similarity distance for the annual average wind speed across these regions fell within specific ranges: Jaman North (±25.72), Jaman South (±25.89), and Wenchi (±26.04). Following the DTW similarity evaluation, Jaman North demonstrated superior performance in wind speed, while Wenchi excelled in wind direction. This underscores the potential efficiency of DTW when incorporated into the analysis of environmental factors affecting crop yields, given its invariant nature. The results obtained can guide further exploration of DTW variations in combination with other machine learning models to predict higher cashew yields. Additionally, these findings emphasize the significance of wind speed and direction in vertical farming, contributing to informed decisions for sustainable agricultural growth and development.

CCMT: Dataset for crop pest and disease detection.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been evident in the agricultural sector recently. The objective of AI in agriculture is to control crop pests/diseases, reduce cost, and improve crop yield. In developing countries, the agriculture sector faces numerous challenges in the form of knowledge gap between farmers and technology, disease and pest infestation, lack of storage facilities, among others. In order to resolve some of these challenges, this paper presents crop pests/disease datasets sourced from local farms in Ghana. The dataset is presented in two folds; the raw images which consists of 24,881 images (6,549-Cashew, 7,508-Cassava, 5,389-Maize, and 5,435-Tomato) and augmented images which is further split into train and test sets. The latter consists of 102,976 images (25,811-Cashew, 26,330-Cassava, 23,657-Maize, and 27,178-Tomato), categorized into 22 classes. All images are de-identified, validated by expert plant virologists, and freely available for use by the research community.

Uncertainty Estimation Using Variational Mixture of Gaussians Capsule Network for Health Image Classification.

Capsule Networks have shown great promise in image recognition due to their ability to recognize the pose, texture, and deformation of objects and object parts. However, the majority of the existing capsule networks are deterministic with limited ability to express uncertainty. Many of them tend to be overconfident on out-of-distribution data, making them less trustworthy and hence reducing their suitability for practical adoption in safety-critical areas such as health and self-driving cars. In this work, we propose a capsule network based on a variational mixture of Gaussians to train distributions of network weights as opposed to a single set of weights and enable the model to express its predictive uncertainty on out-of-distribution data. Training distributions of weights have the added advantage of avoiding overfitting on smaller datasets which are common in health and other fields. Although Bayesian neural networks are known to exhibit slow training and convergence, experimental results show that the proposed model can retrieve only relevant features, converge faster, is less computationally complex, can effectively express its predictive uncertainties, and achieve performance values that are comparable to the state-of-the-art models. This is an indication that CapsNets can exhibit the transparency, credibility, reliability, and interpretability required for practical adoption.