Cross-validation strategies in QSPR modelling of chemical reactions.

In this article, we consider cross-validation of the quantitative structure-property relationship models for reactions and show that the conventional k-fold cross-validation (CV) procedure gives an 'optimistically' biased assessment of prediction performance. To address this issue, we suggest two strategies of model cross-validation, 'transformation-out' CV, and 'solvent-out' CV. Unlike the conventional k-fold cross-validation approach that does not consider the nature of objects, the proposed procedures provide an unbiased estimation of the predictive performance of the models for novel types of structural transformations in chemical reactions and reactions going under new conditions. Both the suggested strategies have been applied to predict the rate constants of bimolecular elimination and nucleophilic substitution reactions, and Diels-Alder cycloaddition. All suggested cross-validation methodologies and tutorial are implemented in the open-source software package CIMtools (https://github.com/cimm-kzn/CIMtools).

Assessment of tautomer distribution using the condensed reaction graph approach.

We report the first direct QSPR modeling of equilibrium constants of tautomeric transformations (logK T ) in different solvents and at different temperatures, which do not require intermediate assessment of acidity (basicity) constants for all tautomeric forms. The key step of the modeling consisted in the merging of two tautomers in one sole molecular graph ("condensed reaction graph") which enables to compute molecular descriptors characterizing entire equilibrium. The support vector regression method was used to build the models. The training set consisted of 785 transformations belonging to 11 types of tautomeric reactions with equilibrium constants measured in different solvents and at different temperatures. The models obtained perform well both in cross-validation (Q2 = 0.81 RMSE = 0.7 logK T units) and on two external test sets. Benchmarking studies demonstrate that our models outperform results obtained with DFT B3LYP/6-311 ++ G(d,p) and ChemAxon Tautomerizer applicable only in water at room temperature.