ABSTRACT
In a companion paper, Ojeda-Rojas et al. (2021) [1] describe a stochastic agent-based simulation (ABS) model of a cow-calf operation on a commercial farm in São Paulo, Brazil. The model's parameterization was based on data collected from two sources: a real beef cattle herd and related scientific literature. Based on the mentioned simulation model, this study aims to assess the economic outcome of 10 different reproductive scenarios: Natural mating only (ONM); one timed artificial insemination (TAI) plus natural mating (NM) (1TAI + NM); two TAI plus NM, with 24, 32, and 40 days between TAI (2TAI/24 + NM, 2TAI/32 + NM, and 2TAI/40 + NM, respectively); three TAI without NM, with 24, 32, and 40 days between TAI (3TAI/24, 3TAI/32, and 3TAI/40, respectively); and three TAI plus NM, with an interval between TAI of 24 (3TAI/24 + NM) and 32 days (3TAI/32 + NM). The simulation was performed on an animal-by-animal basis over a time horizon of 5000 days. Each scenario had 32 farms, and each farm kept up to 400 adult females. According to the scenario, a bull population was composed of 0, 7, or 15 individuals. The outcomes, represented as means ± standard deviations, were assessed after reaching a steady-state (1825 days). The model outcomes showed that the 3TAI/24 + NM scenario resulted in higher incomes (US$ 96,479.19 ± 709.81), whereas the ONM scenario had the lowest incomes (US$ 79,753.37 ± 741.87). The 3TAI/24 + NM (US$ 101.720.63 ± 79.21) and ONM (US$ 90.898.58 ± 59.17) scenarios presented the highest and lowest total operating costs (TOC), respectively. However, when TOC was evaluated per kg of the weaned calf, the highest and lowest costs were associated with the ONM (US$ 2.81 ± 0.03/kg) and 2TAI/24 + NM (US$ 2.17 ± 0,04/kg) scenarios, respectively. Our model suggests that reproductive strategies that use TAI have a better economic performance than those under NM. However, when performing three TAI with an interval of 40 days, the benefit was lower; in some cases, it was even worse than the ONM. Combining TAI with early pregnancy diagnosis resulted in better economic performance than other TAI programs and NM. The 2TAI/24 + NM scenario outperformed the others due to the contrast between its high income and moderate costs. Beef cattle production is a highly complex system. Simulations models, specifically ABS models, could make the decision-making process on complex systems straightforward and effective. Furthermore, ABS models can overcome the limitations of conventional research approaches, such as high costs and long experimentation periods.
