Projecting the Contribution of Provitamin A Maize Biofortification and Other Nutrition Interventions to the Nutritional Adequacy and Cost of Diets in Rural Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of the effectiveness of biofortified maize with higher provitamin A (PVA) to address vitamin A deficiency in rural Africa remains scant. OBJECTIVES: This study projects the impact of adopting PVA maize for a diversity of households in an area typical of rural Zimbabwe and models the cost and composition of diets adequate in vitamin A. METHODS: Household-level weighed food records were generated from 30 rural households during a week in April and November 2021. Weekly household intakes were calculated, as well as indicative costs of diets using data from market surveys. The impact of PVA maize adoption was modeled assuming all maize products contained observed vitamin A concentrations. The composition and cost of the least expensive indicative diets adequate in vitamin A were calculated using linear programming. RESULTS: Very few households would reach adequate intake of vitamin A with the consumption of PVA maize. However, from a current situation of 33%, 50%-70% of households were projected to reach ≥50% of their requirements (the target of PVA), even with the modest vitamin A concentrations achieved on-farm (mean of 28.3 µg RAE per 100 g). This proportion would increase if higher concentrations recorded on-station were achieved. The estimated daily costs of current diets (mean ± standard deviation) were USD 1.43 ± 0.59 in the wet season and USD 0.96 ± 0.40 in the dry season. By comparison, optimization models suggest that diets adequate in vitamin A could be achieved at daily costs of USD 0.97 and USD 0.79 in the wet and dry seasons, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The adoption of PVA maize would bring a substantial improvement in vitamin A intake in rural Zimbabwe but should be combined with other interventions (e.g., diet diversification) to fully address vitamin A deficiency.

Risk aversion, impatience, and adoption of conservation agriculture practices among smallholders in Zambia.

Sustainable agricultural practices such as conservation agriculture have been promoted in southern Africa for nearly three decades, but their adoption remains low. It is of policy interest to unpack behavioural drivers of adoption to understand why adoption remains lower than anticipated. This paper assesses the effects of risk aversion and impatience on the extent and intensity of the adoption of conservation agriculture using panel data collected from 646 households in 2021 and 2022 in Zambia. We find that 12% and 18% of the smallholders were impatient and risk averse, respectively. There are two main empirical findings based on panel data Probit and Tobit models. First, on the extensive margin, being impatient is correlated with a decreased likelihood of adopting combined minimum-tillage (MT) and rotation by 2.9 percentage points and being risk averse is associated with a decreased propensity of adopting combined minimum tillage (MT) and mulching by 3.2 percentage points. Being risk averse is correlated with a decreased chance of adopting basins by 2.8 percentage points. Second, on the intensive margin, impatience and risk aversion are significantly correlated with reduced adoption intensity of basins, ripping, minimum tillage (MT), and combined MT and rotation by 0.02-0.22 ha. These findings imply a need to embed risk management (e.g., through crop yield insurance) in the scaling of sustainable agricultural practices to incentivise adoption. This can help to nudge initial adoption and to protect farmers from yield penalties that are common in experimentation stages.

Adoption potential of conservation agriculture practices in sub-Saharan Africa: results from five case studies.

Despite the reported benefits of conservation agriculture (CA), its wider up-scaling in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has remained fairly limited. This paper shows how a newly developed qualitative expert assessment approach for CA adoption (QAToCA) was applied to determine its adoption potential in SSA. CA adoption potential is not a predictor of observed adoption rates. Instead, our aim was to systematically check relevant factors that may be influencing its adoption. QAToCA delivers an assessment of how suitable conditions "and thus the likelihood for CA adoption" are. Results show that the high CA adoption potentials exhibited by the Malawi and Zambia case relate mostly to positive institutional factors. On the other hand, the low adoption potential of the Zimbabwe case, in spite of observed higher estimates, is attributed mainly to unstable and less secured market conditions for CA. In the case of Southern Burkina Faso, the potential for CA adoption is determined to be high, and this assessment deviates from lower observed figures. This is attributed mainly to strong competition of CA and livestock for residues in this region. Lastly, the high adoption potential found in Northern Burkina Faso is explained mainly by the fact that farmers here have no alternative other than to adopt the locally adapted CA system-Zaï farming. Results of this assessment should help promoters of CA in the given regions to reflect on their activities and to eventually adjust or redesign them based on a more explicit understanding of where problems and opportunities are found.