Factors associated with diet diversity among infants and young children in the Eastern and Southern Africa region.

This study explores common factors associated with not meeting minimum dietary diversity (MDD) among 27,072 children aged 6-23 months in Eastern and Southern Africa using data from nine Demographic and Health Surveys from 2013 to 2016. MDD was defined as consumption of more than or equals to five of eight food groups including breast milk in the past 24 h. Equity gaps were calculated as the difference in MDD prevalence between the top and bottom wealth quintiles. Logistic regression was conducted to identify common factors for not meeting MDD at the household, maternal and child levels across two or more countries to inform regional policies to improve children's diets. Kenya had the highest MDD wealth equity gap (40.4 pts), and South Africa had the smallest (14.4 pts). Equity gaps for flesh foods or eggs (up to 39.8 pp) were larger than for grain or legumes (up to 20 pp). Common risk factors for not reaching MDD included younger child age (6-11 months) (n = 9 countries), no formal maternal occupation (n = 6), not receiving vitamin-A supplementation (n = 3), younger maternal age (n = 3), lower maternal education (n = 3), no media (n = 3) or newspaper (n = 3) exposure, lower household wealth quintile (n = 3), use of nonefficient cooking fuel (n = 2), longer time to get to the water source (n = 2), not listening to the radio (n = 2) and higher birth order (n = 2). Priorities for improving MDD in the region include introducing diverse foods at a young age from 6 months with early nutrition counselling, promoting higher maternal education, increasing food purchasing power and ensuring the support of younger mothers.

Risks to the delivery of essential nutrition services in Eastern and Southern Africa in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction: without timely action, the global prevalence of child wasting could rise by a shocking 14.3% as a result of disruption of nutrition services by fear, stigma, and various government restrictions to curb COVID-19. Therefore, timely action should be emphasized to ensure continued provision of essential health and nutrition services such as vitamin A supplementation, timely identification and treatment of wasting, provision of micronutrients, and promotion of improved infant and young child feeding (IYCF) in the region. Methods: this study analyzed the routine nutrition data from HMIS, comparing continuity of essential nutrition services in the region before and during COVID-19. Two online questionnaires were also administered to UNICEF staff in all the 21 ESA countries in May and June 2020. Results: the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region experienced reduced coverage of vitamin A supplementation among children 6-59 months, while wasting treatment recorded a mixed picture with a 14% overall decline in new admissions, but some countries also reflecting increases. Compared to 2019 there was an increase in the number of mothers and caregivers reached with counselling for improved IYCF. All the countries adopted the revised nutrition programming guidelines in the context of COVID-19. Conclusion: the impact of COVID-19 to the health and nutrition wellbeing of children and women can't be underestimated. Countries in the region should strive to continue providing essential nutrition services while protecting children and women against the spread of COVID-19. Necessary response measures should be established to build resilience in the health and nutrition sectors to cope with the impact of COVID-19.

Can we predict the burden of acute malnutrition in crisis-affected countries? Findings from Somalia and South Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Sample surveys are the mainstay of surveillance for acute malnutrition in settings affected by crises but are burdensome and have limited geographical coverage due to insecurity and other access issues. As a possible complement to surveys, we explored a statistical approach to predict the prevalent burden of acute malnutrition for small population strata in two crisis-affected countries, Somalia (2014-2018) and South Sudan (2015-2018). METHODS: For each country, we sourced datasets generated by humanitarian actors or other entities on insecurity, displacement, food insecurity, access to services, epidemic occurrence and other factors on the causal pathway to malnutrition. We merged these with datasets of sample household anthropometric surveys done at administrative level 3 (district, county) as part of nutritional surveillance, and, for each of several outcomes including binary and continuous indices based on either weight-for-height or middle-upper-arm circumference, fitted and evaluated the predictive performance of generalised linear models and, as an alternative, machine learning random forests. RESULTS: We developed models based on 85 ground surveys in Somalia and 175 in South Sudan. Livelihood type, armed conflict intensity, measles incidence, vegetation index and water price were important predictors in Somalia, and livelihood, measles incidence, rainfall and terms of trade (purchasing power) in South Sudan. However, both generalised linear models and random forests had low performance for both binary and continuous anthropometric outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive models had disappointing performance and are not usable for action. The range of data used and their quality probably limited our analysis. The predictive approach remains theoretically attractive and deserves further evaluation with larger datasets across multiple settings.

Development, Validity, and Cross-Context Equivalence of the Child Food Insecurity Experiences Scale for Assessing Food Insecurity of School-Age Children and Adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Children ages 6 to 17 years can accurately assess their own food insecurity, whereas parents are inaccurate reporters of their children's experiences of food insecurity. No globally applicable scale to assess the food insecurity of children has been developed and validated. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop a globally applicable, experience-based measure of child and adolescent food insecurity and establish the validity and cross-contextual equivalence of the measure. METHODS: The 10-item Child Food Insecurity Experiences Scale (CFIES) was based on items previously validated from questionnaires from the United States, Venezuela, and Lebanon. Cognitive interviews were conducted to check understanding of the items. The questionnaire then was administered in 15 surveys in 13 countries. Other items in each survey that assessed the household socioeconomic status, household food security, or child psychological functioning were selected as criterion variables to compare to the scores from the CFIES. To investigate accuracy (i.e., criterion validity), linear regression estimated the associations of the CFIES scores with the criterion variables. To investigate the cross-contextual equivalence (i.e., measurement invariance), the alignment method was used based on classical measurement theory. RESULTS: Across the 15 surveys, the mean scale scores for the CFIES ranged from 1.65 to 5.86 (possible range of 0 to 20) and the Cronbach alpha ranged from 0.88 to 0.94. The variance explained by a 1-factor model ranged from 0.92 to 0.99. Accuracy was demonstrated by expected associations with criterion variables. The percentages of equivalent thresholds and loadings across the 15 surveys were 28.0 and 5.33, respectively, for a total percentage of nonequivalent thresholds and loadings of 16.7, well below the guideline of <25%. That is, 83.3% of thresholds and loadings were equivalent across these surveys. CONCLUSIONS: The CFIES provides a globally applicable, valid, and cross-contextually equivalent measure of the experiences of food insecurity of school-aged children and adolescents, as reported by them.

Estimates of child mortality reductions attributed to vitamin A supplementation in sub-Saharan Africa: scale up, scale back, or refocus?

BACKGROUND: Vitamin A supplementation (VAS) has been implemented in over 82 countries globally, primarily because of its beneficial effect in preventing child mortality. Secular reductions in child mortality and the implementation of alternative programs to promote vitamin A intake have led to questions on the need for national VAS programs. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate child mortality changes related to VAS using current, scale-back, and scale-up coverage scenarios. METHODS: Data related to demographic characteristics, fertility, intervention coverage, anthropometry, child mortality and cause-of-death structure were integrated into the Lives Saved Tool (LiST). We estimated the cause-specific (LiST model) and all-cause mortality reductions related to VAS based on evidence from recent meta-analyses. RESULTS: Between 2008 and 2018, VAS coverage declined in most sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. In 2019 alone, 12% and 24% reductions in all-cause mortality related to VAS were expected to avert from 105,332 to 234,704 child deaths, respectively, in SSA; whereas the cause-specific mortality model (LiST) estimated that 141,670 child deaths were averted in 2019. Estimates of VAS-related child mortality reductions were highly variable among countries. Our scaling-back scenario led to highly variable country-level results, with expected increases in mortality rates, from a low of 0.04/1000 live births to as high as 49.3/1000 live births, suggesting that some countries could start considering scaling back, while others need to scale up. CONCLUSIONS: Excess child mortality that would be preventable by VAS has declined, but is still significant in many SSA countries. While scale-up of VAS is needed for most of the countries, scaling back can also be considered in some countries. Policy decisions, however, should be guided by more recent data on food consumption, vitamin A statuses, child health, and vitamin A fortification coverage.

Concurrent wasting and stunting among children 6-59 months: an analysis using district-level survey data in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: In the past it was believed that wasting and stunting were independent of each other. Recent work has shown that they can occur concurrently in a child and that increases considerably the risk of mortality. Concurrent wasting and stunting (WaSt) is currently defined as WHZ < -2 AND HAZ < -2. Wasting is measured by WHZ and MUAC and evidence shows that they tend to identify different sets of children. Our study aimed to look at the effect of adding MUAC on the prevalence and burden of WaSt, and to assess diagnosis of WaSt with a single measurement. METHODS: We analyzed population-based anthropometric surveys from 37 districts in Mozambique conducted by the Government of Mozambique between 2017 and 2019. We proposed a new case-definition for WaSt that includes MUAC in acknowledgement of the different children with wasting diagnosed by WHZ and MUAC. We estimated how many WaSt cases are eligible to be included in the existing treatment program in Mozambique by calculating the True Positive and False Positive Values of WaSt using our proposed case-definition against the wasting admission criteria. AUC of ROC curves used for MUAC and WAZ and optimal cut-offs were determined using Youden's Index. RESULTS: Including MUAC in the concurrent WaSt case-definition identified more children with WaSt compared to the original case-definition and more younger children and girls were identified. Using both MUAC and WHZ and enrolling severe and moderate wasting is already picking up most of the WaSt cases: 100% in health facilities and 79.40% with MUAC mass screenings at community level. Cut-off values from the ROC curve for the proposed case-definition were MUAC ≤133 mm and WAZ ≤ 2.145 Z-scores, however, they  yielded many false positive values. CONCLUSION: WaSt case-definition should include MUAC. WaSt should commence to be reported in surveys and Mozambique should also start monitoring and treating children with WaSt. A cost-effective approach to identify all children with WaSt without adding too many false positive is needed, as well as understanding how to achieve optimal treatment outcomes within existing programs.

Does weight-for-height and mid upper-arm circumference diagnose the same children as wasted? An analysis using survey data from 2017 to 2019 in Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: Three different diagnostic criteria are used to identify children aged 6 to 59 months with acute malnutrition: weight-for-height (WHZ), middle upper arm circumference (MUAC) and bilateral pitting oedema. Prevalence of malnutrition from surveys is among the most-used decision support data, however not all diagnostic criteria are used to calculate need, creating a mismatch between programme planning and implementation. With this paper, we investigate if such discrepancies are observed in Mozambique. METHODS: Population-based nutritional anthropometric surveys from 45 districts in Mozambique conducted by the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) and UNICEF between 2017 and 2019 were analysed. We used Cohen's kappa coefficient to measure inter-rater agreement between WHZ and MUAC, Spearman's rank-order coefficient to assess the correlation, binary logistic regression to investigate factors influencing WHZ and MUAC diagnostic classification. We compared acute malnutrition caseload estimates by WHZ, MUAC and oedema to caseloads from combined prevalence estimates. RESULTS: WHZ and MUAC rarely agree on their diagnostic classification (κ = 0.353, ρ < 0.001) and results did not vary by province. We found positive correlation between WHZ and MUAC (rho = 0.593, ρ < 0.0001). Binary logistic regression explained 3.1% of variation in WHZ and 12.3% in the MUAC model. Girls (AOR = 1.6, ρ < 0.0001), children < 24 months (AOR = 5.3, ρ < 0.0001) and stunted children (AOR = 3.5, ρ < 0.0001) influenced the MUAC classification. In the WHZ model, children < 24 months (AOR = 2.4, ρ < 0.0001) and stunted children (AOR = 1.7, ρ < 0.0001) influenced the classification, sex had no effect. Caseload calculations of global acute malnutrition by WHZ and/oedema-only and by MUAC and/oedema-only yielded less children than caseload calculations using the combined prevalence estimates. Similarly, caseload calculations for SAM by WHZ and/oedema-only and SAM by MUAC and/oedema-only yielded less children than the respective combined prevalence calculations. CONCLUSIONS: Given the discrepancy in diagnostic classification between WHZ and MUAC in Mozambique, using either one alone for calculating burden underestimates the real number of children in need of treatment and negatively affects nutrition programme planning. We recommend that use of the combined prevalence estimates, based on the three diagnostic criteria of WHZ, MUAC and oedema, be officially adopted. Further analysis is needed to detail the programmatic impact of this change.

Implications of Updating the Minimum Dietary Diversity for Children Indicator for Tracking Progress in the Eastern and Southern Africa Region.

Minimum dietary diversity (MDD), a population-level dietary quality indicator, is commonly used across low- and middle-income countries to characterize diets of children aged 6-23 mo. The WHO and UNICEF recently updated the MDD definition from consumption of ≥4 of 7 food groups in the previous 24 h (MDD-7) to ≥5 of 8 food groups (MDD-8), adding a breastmilk group. The implications of this definition change were examined across 14 countries in Eastern and Southern Africa where improving complementary feeding is a policy priority. A lower MDD-8 score was found compared with MDD-7 across all countries; in 3 countries the difference between indicators was >5 percentage points. Country-level variability is driven by differences in breastfeeding rates and dietary diversity score. As countries transition to the new indicator it is important to actively publicize changes and to promote valid interpretation of MDD trends.