Continental concerted efforts to control the seventh outbreak of Ebola Virus disease in Uganda: The first 90 days of the response.

On 20th September 2022, Uganda declared the 7th outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) caused by the Sudan Ebola strain following the confirmation of a case admitted at Mubende Regional Referral Hospital. Upon confirmation, the Government of Uganda immediately activated the national incident management system to initiate response activities. Additionally, a multi-country emergency stakeholder meeting was held in Kampala; convening Ministers of Health from neighbouring Member States to undertake cross-border preparedness and response actions. The outbreak spanned 69 days and recorded 164 cases (142 confirmed, 22 probable), 87 recoveries and 77 deaths (case fatality ratio of 47%). Nine out of 136 districts were affected with transmission taking place in 5 districts but spilling over in 4 districts without secondary transmission. As part of the response, the Government galvanised robust community mobilisation and initiated assessment of medical counter measures including therapeutics, new diagnostics and vaccines. This paper highlights the response actions that contributed to the containment of this outbreak in addition to the challenges faced with a special focus on key recommendations for better control of future outbreaks.

Applying mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related VMMC service disruptions on new HIV infections in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems with knock on effects on diagnosis, treatment, and care. To mitigate the impact, the government of Zimbabwe enforced a strict lockdown beginning 30 March 2020 which ran intermittently until early 2021. In this period, the Ministry of Health and Childcare strategically prioritized delivery of services leading to partial and full suspension of services considered non-essential, including HIV prevention. As a result, Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) services were disrupted leading to an 80% decline in circumcisions conducted in 2020. Given the efficacy of VMMC, we quantified the potential effects of VMMC service disruption on new HIV infections in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We applied the GOALS model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on reducing new HIV infections over 30-years. GOALS is an HIV simulation model that estimates number of new HIV infections based on sexual behaviours of population groups. The model is parameterized based on national surveys and HIV program data. We hypothesized three coverage scenarios by 2030: scenario I - pre-COVID trajectory: 80% VMMC coverage; Scenario II - marginal COVID-19 impact: 60% VMMC coverage, and scenario III - severe COVID-19 impact: 45% VMMC coverage. VMMC coverage between 2020 and 2030 was linearly interpolated to attain the estimated coverage and then held constant from 2030 to 2050, and discounted outcomes at 3%. RESULTS: Compared to the baseline scenario I, in scenario II, we estimated that the disruption of VMMC services would generate an average of 200 (176-224) additional new infections per year and 7,200 new HIV infections over the next 30 years. For scenario III, we estimated an average of 413 (389-437) additional new HIV infections per year and 15,000 new HIV infections over the next 30 years. The disruption of VMMC services could generate additional future HIV treatment costs ranging from $27 million to $55 million dollars across scenarios II and III, respectively. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 disruptions destabilized delivery of VMMC services which could contribute to an additional 7,200 new infections over the next 30 years. Unless mitigated, these disruptions could derail the national goals of reducing new infections by 2030.

Factors associated with late presentation for HIV/AIDS care in Harare City, Zimbabwe, 2015.

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread awareness and publicity concerning Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) care and advances in treatment, many patients still present late in their HIV disease. Preliminary review of the Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) registers at Wilkins and Beatrice Road Hospitals, both located in Harare, indicated that 67 and 71 % of patients enrolled into HIV/AIDS care presented late with baseline CD4 of <200 cells/uL and/or WHO stage 3 and 4 respectively. We therefore sought to explore factors associated with late presentation in Harare City. METHODS: We conducted a 1:1 unmatched case control study where a case was an HIV positive individual (>18 years) with a baseline CD4 of <200/uL or who had WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 at first presentation to OI/ART centres in 2014 and; a control was HIV positive individual (>18 years) who had a baseline CD4 of >200/uL or WHO clinical stage 1 or 2 at first presentation in 2014. Written informed consent was obtained from all study participants. RESULTS: A total of 268 participants were recruited (134 cases and 134 controls). Independent risk factors for late presentation for HIV/AIDS care were illness being reason for test (Adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] =7.68, 95 % CI = 4.08, 14.75); Being male (aOR = 2.84, 95 % CI = 1.50, 5.40) and; experienced HIV stigma (aOR = 2.99, 95 % CI = 1.54, 5.79). Independent protective factors were receiving information on HIV (aOR = 0.37, 95 % CI = 0.18, 0.78) and earning more than US$250 per month (aOR = 0.32, 95 % CI = 0.76, 0.67). Median duration between first reported HIV positive test result and enrolment into pre-ART care was 2 days (Q1 = 1 day; Q3 = 30 days) among cases and 30 days (Q1 = 3 days; Q3 = 75 days) among controls. CONCLUSION: Late presentation for HIV/AIDS care in Harare City was a result of factors that relate to the patient's sex, reason for getting a test, receiving HIV related information, experiencing stigma and monthly income. Based on this evidence we recommended targeted interventions to optimize early access to testing and enrolment into care.