Trends in hip fracture epidemiology in Australia: possible impact of bisphosphonates and hormone replacement therapy.

The purposes of this study were to analyse trends in hip fracture (HF) epidemiology over a 13-year period (1994-2007) in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), to assess the potential impact of concurrent changes in hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and bisphosphonate use and to present a new prediction of HFs in Australia up to 2021. Annual sex- and age-specific incidence rates (per 100,000 population) were determined and standardized using the Australian 2006 population. The projected number of HFs was estimated by two models applying age- and sex-specific HF rates averaged for 2002-2006 (model 1) or continuously changing as observed in this period (model 2, Poisson regression) to the projected population. In 2006 compared to 2001, the population > or = 60 years in the ACT increased by 19.7%. Over the last 5 years the average annual incidence HF rate compared to the previous 3-year period decreased in females > or = 60 years of age by 28.3%. Between 2001 and 2006 the number of prescriptions for HRT dispensed in the ACT declined by 54.6, while the number of prescriptions for bisphosphonate increased by 245%, accompanied by a decline in standardized incidence of HF rates of 36.4%, mainly in women (42.1%). This represents an annual cost for bisphosphonates per one prevented HF, of $A45,250 or $A576 person/year. Compared to 2006 the total number of HFs in Australia according to model 1 will increase in 2011 by 20.1% and in 2021 by 58.8%, but according to model 2 will decrease by 15.5% in 2011 and 27.5% in 2021. Our data suggest that the previously predicted rising trend in HFs in elderly women reversed, but did not so for men. This was coincident with a significant fall in HRT use and increased prescribing of bisphosphonates, which is cost-effective. However caution should be used in attributing causation as this is an ecological study. If trends in HF observed in 2002-2006 continue, the absolute number of HFs in Australia in 2011-2021 will stabilise or decline (which is more likely), despite the rapid ageing of the population.

Prevalence survey of multiple sclerosis in the Australian Capital Territory.

AIM: This study sought to obtain an estimate of the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), a largely urban region that differs climatically and socioeconomically from other Australian cities examined in previous MS surveys. METHODS: Prevalence day was chosen to coincide with the 1996 National Census. All ACT neurologists' records for the previous 5 years were examined and cases of MS were classified according to the published diagnostic criteria of Rose et al. and Poser et al. RESULTS: By the criteria of Rose et al., as used in previous Australian surveys of MS, prevalence was 79.9/100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 63.4-99.2) for females, 32.8 (22.7-46.2) for males and 56.7 (43.1-74.1) for all people, standardized to the 1996 population. Standardized to the 1981 population for direct comparison with 1981 surveys in New South Wales, the prevalence of MS in the ACT was still unexpectedly high, particularly for females. Using the criteria of Poser et al., the prevalence of MS standardized to the 1996 population was 70.6/ 100,000 (95% CI = 58.4-85.3) for females, 28.0 (20.3-37.8) for males and 49.5 (42.2-58.2) for all people. There was evidence from a relatively short duration of disease in the ACT sample that some persons with long-standing MS had been missed in the survey and therefore that the prevalence of MS observed in the ACT was an underestimate. CONCLUSIONS: The survey found an unexpectedly high prevalence of MS in the ACT. Possible reasons for this are discussed. There was no evidence that the advent of magnetic resonance imaging had increased the numbers of persons diagnosed with MS in the present survey.

Cervical cancer mortality in Australia: contrasting risk by Aboriginality, age and rurality.

BACKGROUND: The poor health status of Australia's indigenous population is reflected in relatively high mortality rates from almost all causes, including preventable causes such as cervical cancer, where the rate is six to eight times that of non-Aboriginal women. However, there is little information on the geographical distribution of risk, an important issue for service deployment. This study examined the risk of death from cervical cancer in relation to Indigenous status, age and rurality. METHODS: Data from death registers from Australian states and territories who have identified Aboriginal people were examined for 1986-1997 to obtain a list of all deaths where the primary cause was cancer of the cervix. The data categorized females by 5-year age group, by metropolitan, rural or remote category and by Indigenous status. Mean age at death and standardized mortality ratios for deaths from cervical cancer were calculated for Aboriginal compared with non-Aboriginal women in metropolitan, rural and remote areas. RESULTS: The risk of death from cervical cancer for Aboriginal women compared with non-Aboriginal women increased by 4.3-fold for metropolitan areas, 9.7-fold for rural areas and 18.3-fold for remote areas. CONCLUSIONS: Aboriginal women in rural and remote areas of Australia are at significantly higher risk of death from cancer of the cervix than either Aboriginal women in metropolitan areas or non-Aboriginal women in any area. This result raises questions about access to services for prevention and early diagnosis and other factors that might impact on the incidence and natural history of the disease.

Immunisation coverage in Australian children: a systematic review 1990-1998.

The Australian Childhood Immunisation Register (ACIR) commenced operation in January 1996 and provides a comprehensive database of children's immunisations in Australia. The ACIR enables implementation of an immunisation recall and reminder system and improved surveillance and reporting of immunisation coverage. Before the introduction of the ACIR, the methods used in assessing coverage varied widely in design and quality, with few studies measuring coverage at national or statewide level. This is a systematic review of the scope and reliability of estimates of immunisation coverage available in Australia from 1990 to 1998. A total of 108 studies were identified of which 51 were classified as higher quality based on a range of criteria including whether they had a response rate of 50% or better.

Arthroscopic microdiscectomy: comparison of preoperative and postoperative imaging studies.

Forty-three patients with symptomatic lumbar disc herniations underwent paralumbar arthroscopic disc extraction by a uniportal or biportal approach and postoperative imaging studies. Thirty-one patients were subjected to immediate postoperative computed tomography (CT) at the operative site. The other 12 underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI at varying times postoperatively. Images obtained before and after surgery were magnified; the herniation area (H) and the spinal canal area (C) were measured by computerized digitization. The H/C ratio was calculated, and the percentage of canal clearance was obtained in each case. Immediate postoperative CT imaging in 16 of 18 patients with subligamentous and extraligamentous nonmigrated herniation showed a significant change in the external geometry of the annulus and canal clearance (75% to 100% canal clearance). Less compelling change in the postoperative CT images was unexpectedly seen with extraforaminal and foraminal herniations. This result may be attributable to limitations in our study methodology and not to inadequate decompression. Follow-up MRI on these patients within 8 weeks postoperatively did eventually show significant change in two cases that were initially not significant. This study confirms that the arthroscopic microdiscectomy technique effectively extracts herniated disc fragments and alters posterior annular contour, including removal of sequestered pieces.

Open tibial fracture infections in asymptomatic HIV antibody-positive patients.

Fourteen patients with 15 open tibial fractures were examined retrospectively to compare postoperative infection rates of asymptomatic patients who tested positive or negative for the human immunodeficiency virus antibody (HIVab). All patients were treated with a standard open-fracture protocol. All of the HIVab-positive patients developed postoperative infections. There were five postoperative infections in 4 patients; 3 of the 4 patients were HIVab-positive and 2 of these patients developed chronic osteomyelitis. The only other infection, in an HIVab-negative patient with insulin-dependent diabetes, resolved without complication. All other HIVab-negative patients had no complications. The infection rate for asymptomatic HIVab-positive patients with open tibial fractures was higher than that for HIVab-negative patients in our study. These data suggest that the HIV status of patients with open tibial fractures is relevant to treatment outcome.