APOE Christchurch-mimetic therapeutic antibody reduces APOE-mediated toxicity and tau phosphorylation.

INTRODUCTION: We discovered that the APOE3 Christchurch (APOE3Ch) variant may provide resistance to Alzheimer's disease (AD). This resistance may be due to reduced pathological interactions between ApoE3Ch and heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs). METHODS: We developed and characterized the binding, structure, and preclinical efficacy of novel antibodies targeting human ApoE-HSPG interactions. RESULTS: We found that one of these antibodies, called 7C11, preferentially bound ApoE4, a major risk factor for sporadic AD, and disrupts heparin-ApoE4 interactions. We also determined the crystal structure of a Fab fragment of 7C11 and used computer modeling to predict how it would bind to ApoE. When we tested 7C11 in mouse models, we found that it reduced recombinant ApoE-induced tau pathology in the retina of MAPT*P301S mice and curbed pTau S396 phosphorylation in brains of systemically treated APOE4 knock-in mice. Targeting ApoE-HSPG interactions using 7C11 antibody may be a promising approach to developing new therapies for AD.

Resilience to autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease in a Reelin-COLBOS heterozygous man.

We characterized the world's second case with ascertained extreme resilience to autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease (ADAD). Side-by-side comparisons of this male case and the previously reported female case with ADAD homozygote for the APOE3 Christchurch (APOECh) variant allowed us to discern common features. The male remained cognitively intact until 67 years of age despite carrying a PSEN1-E280A mutation. Like the APOECh carrier, he had extremely elevated amyloid plaque burden and limited entorhinal Tau tangle burden. He did not carry the APOECh variant but was heterozygous for a rare variant in RELN (H3447R, termed COLBOS after the Colombia-Boston biomarker research study), a ligand that like apolipoprotein E binds to the VLDLr and APOEr2 receptors. RELN-COLBOS is a gain-of-function variant showing stronger ability to activate its canonical protein target Dab1 and reduce human Tau phosphorylation in a knockin mouse. A genetic variant in a case protected from ADAD suggests a role for RELN signaling in resilience to dementia.

Loss of TRPV2-mediated blood flow autoregulation recapitulates diabetic retinopathy in rats.

Loss of retinal blood flow autoregulation is an early feature of diabetes that precedes the development of clinically recognizable diabetic retinopathy (DR). Retinal blood flow autoregulation is mediated by the myogenic response of the retinal arterial vessels, a process that is initiated by the stretch­dependent activation of TRPV2 channels on the retinal vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs). Here, we show that the impaired myogenic reaction of retinal arterioles from diabetic animals is associated with a complete loss of stretch­dependent TRPV2 current activity on the retinal VSMCs. This effect could be attributed, in part, to TRPV2 channel downregulation, a phenomenon that was also evident in human retinal VSMCs from diabetic donors. We also demonstrate that TRPV2 heterozygous rats, a nondiabetic model of impaired myogenic reactivity and blood flow autoregulation in the retina, develop a range of microvascular, glial, and neuronal lesions resembling those observed in DR, including neovascular complexes. No overt kidney pathology was observed in these animals. Our data suggest that TRPV2 dysfunction underlies the loss of retinal blood flow autoregulation in diabetes and provide strong support for the hypothesis that autoregulatory deficits are involved in the pathogenesis of DR.

Notch Signaling in Vascular Endothelial and Mural Cell Communications.

The Notch signaling pathway is a highly versatile and evolutionarily conserved mechanism with an important role in cell fate determination. Notch signaling plays a vital role in vascular development, regulating several fundamental processes such as angiogenesis, arterial/venous differentiation, and mural cell investment. Aberrant Notch signaling can result in severe vascular phenotypes as observed in cerebral autosomal-dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL) and Alagille syndrome. It is known that vascular endothelial cells and mural cells interact to regulate vessel formation, cell maturation, and stability of the vascular network. Defective endothelial-mural cell interactions are a common phenotype in diseases characterized by impaired vascular integrity. Further refinement of the role of Notch signaling in the vascular junctions will be critical to attempts to modulate Notch in the context of human vascular disease. In this review, we aim to consolidate and summarize our current understanding of Notch signaling in the vascular endothelial and mural cells during development and in the adult vasculature.

Targeting Runt-Related Transcription Factor 1 Prevents Pulmonary Fibrosis and Reduces Expression of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Host Mediators.

Pulmonary fibrosis (PF) can arise from unknown causes, as in idiopathic PF, or as a consequence of infections, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Current treatments for PF slow, but do not stop, disease progression. We report that treatment with a runt-related transcription factor 1 (RUNX1) inhibitor (Ro24-7429), previously found to be safe, although ineffective, as a Tat inhibitor in patients with HIV, robustly ameliorates lung fibrosis and inflammation in the bleomycin-induced PF mouse model. RUNX1 inhibition blunted fundamental mechanisms downstream pathologic mediators of fibrosis and inflammation, including transforming growth factor-ß1 and tumor necrosis factor-α, in cultured lung epithelial cells, fibroblasts, and vascular endothelial cells, indicating pleiotropic effects. RUNX1 inhibition also reduced the expression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 and FES Upstream Region (FURIN), host proteins critical for SARS-CoV-2 infection, in mice and in vitro. A subset of human lungs with SARS-CoV-2 infection overexpress RUNX1. These data suggest that RUNX1 inhibition via repurposing of Ro24-7429 may be beneficial for PF and to battle SARS-CoV-2, by reducing expression of viral mediators and by preventing respiratory complications.

Treatment of Experimental Choroidal Neovascularization via RUNX1 Inhibition.

Choroidal neovascularization (CNV) is a prevalent cause of vision loss in patients with age-related macular degeneration. Runt-related transcription factor 1 (RUNX1) has been identified as an important mediator of aberrant retinal angiogenesis in proliferative diabetic retinopathy and its modulation has proven to be effective in curbing pathologic angiogenesis in experimental oxygen-induced retinopathy. However, its role in CNV remains to be elucidated. This study demonstrates RUNX1 expression in critical cell types involved in a laser-induced model of CNV in mice. Furthermore, the preclinical efficacy of Ro5-3335, a small molecule inhibitor of RUNX1, in experimental CNV is reported. RUNX1 inhibitor Ro5-3335, aflibercept-an FDA-approved vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) inhibitor, or a combination of both, were administered by intravitreal injection immediately after laser injury. The CNV area of choroidal flatmounts was evaluated by immunostaining with isolectin B4, and vascular permeability was analyzed by fluorescein angiography. A single intravitreal injection of Ro5-3335 significantly decreased the CNV area 7 days after laser injury, and when combined with aflibercept, reduced vascular leakage more effectively than aflibercept alone. These data suggest that RUNX1 inhibition alone or in combination with anti-VEGF drugs may be a new therapy upon further clinical validation for patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

TNF-α signaling regulates RUNX1 function in endothelial cells.

Runt-related transcription factor 1 (RUNX1) acts as a mediator of aberrant retinal angiogenesis and has been implicated in the progression of proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR). Patients with PDR, retinopathy of prematurity (ROP), and wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD) have been found to have elevated levels of Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha (TNF-α) in the eye. In fibrovascular membranes (FVMs) taken from patients with PDR RUNX1 expression was increased in the vasculature, while in human retinal microvascular endothelial cells (HRMECs), TNF-α stimulation causes increased RUNX1 expression, which can be modulated by RUNX1 inhibitors. Using TNF-α pathway inhibitors, we determined that in HRMECs, TNF-α-induced RUNX1 expression occurs via JNK activation, while NF-κB and p38/MAPK inhibition did not affect RUNX1 expression. JNK inhibitors were also effective at stopping high D-glucose-stimulated RUNX1 expression. We further linked JNK to RUNX1 through Activator Protein 1 (AP-1) and investigated the JNK-AP-1-RUNX1 regulatory feedback loop, which can be modulated by VEGF. Additionally, stimulation with TNF-α and D-glucose had an additive effect on RUNX1 expression, which was downregulated by VEGF modulation. These data suggest that the downregulation of RUNX1 in conjunction with anti-VEGF agents may be important in future treatments for the management of diseases of pathologic ocular angiogenesis.

NOX4 is a major regulator of cord blood-derived endothelial colony-forming cells which promotes post-ischaemic revascularization.

AIMS: Cord blood-derived endothelial colony-forming cells (CB-ECFCs) are a defined progenitor population with established roles in vascular homeostasis and angiogenesis, which possess low immunogenicity and high potential for allogeneic therapy and are highly sensitive to regulation by reactive oxygen species (ROS). The aim of this study was to define the precise role of the major ROS-producing enzyme, NOX4 NADPH oxidase, in CB-ECFC vasoreparative function. METHODS AND RESULTS: In vitro CB-ECFC migration (scratch-wound assay) and tubulogenesis (tube length, branch number) was enhanced by phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA)-induced superoxide in a NOX-dependent manner. CB-ECFCs highly-expressed NOX4, which was further induced by PMA, whilst NOX4 siRNA and plasmid overexpression reduced and potentiated in vitro function, respectively. Increased ROS generation in NOX4-overexpressing CB-ECFCs (DCF fluorescence, flow cytometry) was specifically reduced by superoxide dismutase, highlighting induction of ROS-specific signalling. Laser Doppler imaging of mouse ischaemic hindlimbs at 7 days indicated that NOX4-knockdown CB-ECFCs inhibited blood flow recovery, which was enhanced by NOX4-overexpressing CB-ECFCs. Tissue analysis at 14 days revealed consistent alterations in vascular density (lectin expression) and eNOS protein despite clearance of injected CB-ECFCs, suggesting NOX4-mediated modulation of host tissue. Indeed, proteome array analysis indicated that NOX4-knockdown CB-ECFCs largely suppressed tissue angiogenesis, whilst NOX4-overexpressing CB-ECFCs up-regulated a number of pro-angiogenic factors specifically-linked with eNOS signalling, in parallel with equivalent modulation of NOX-dependent ROS generation, suggesting that CB-ECFC NOX4 signalling may promote host vascular repair. CONCLUSION: Taken together, these findings indicate a key role for NOX4 in CB-ECFCs, thereby highlighting its potential as a target for enhancing their reparative function through therapeutic priming to support creation of a pro-reparative microenvironment and effective post-ischaemic revascularization.

Resistance to autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease in an APOE3 Christchurch homozygote: a case report.

We identified a PSEN1 (presenilin 1) mutation carrier from the world's largest autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease kindred, who did not develop mild cognitive impairment until her seventies, three decades after the expected age of clinical onset. The individual had two copies of the APOE3 Christchurch (R136S) mutation, unusually high brain amyloid levels and limited tau and neurodegenerative measurements. Our findings have implications for the role of APOE in the pathogenesis, treatment and prevention of Alzheimer's disease.

CAMKII as a therapeutic target for growth factor-induced retinal and choroidal neovascularization.

While anti-VEGF drugs are commonly used to inhibit pathological retinal and choroidal neovascularization, not all patients respond in an optimal manner. Mechanisms underpinning resistance to anti­VEGF therapy include the upregulation of other proangiogenic factors. Therefore, therapeutic strategies that simultaneously target multiple growth factor signaling pathways would have significant value. Here, we show that Ca2+/calmodulin-dependent kinase II (CAMKII) mediates the angiogenic actions of a range of growth factors in human retinal endothelial cells and that this kinase acts as a key nodal point for the activation of several signal transduction cascades that are known to play a critical role in growth factor-induced angiogenesis. We also demonstrate that endothelial CAMKIIγ and -δ isoforms differentially regulate the angiogenic effects of different growth factors and that genetic deletion of these isoforms suppresses pathological retinal and choroidal neovascularization in vivo. Our studies suggest that CAMKII could provide a novel and efficacious target to inhibit multiple angiogenic signaling pathways for the treatment of vasoproliferative diseases of the eye. CAMKIIγ represents a particularly promising target, as deletion of this isoform inhibited pathological neovascularization, while enhancing reparative angiogenesis in the ischemic retina.

Observations on spontaneous tumor formation in mice overexpressing mitotic kinesin Kif14.

The KIF14 locus is gained and overexpressed in various malignancies, with prognostic relevance. Its protein product, a mitotic kinesin, accelerates growth of normal mammary epithelial cells in vitro and retinoblastoma tumours in a mouse model, while KIF14 knockdown blocks growth of brain, liver, ovarian, breast, prostate, and other tumour cells and xenografts. However, the tumour-initiating effects of Kif14 overexpression have not been studied. We aged a cohort of Kif14-overexpressing transgenic mice and wild-type littermates and documented survival, cause of death, and tumour burden. The Kif14 transgene was expressed in all tissues examined, and was associated with increased proliferation marker expression. Neither mouse weights nor overall survival differed between genotypes. However, Kif14 transgenic mice showed a higher incidence of fatal lymphomas (73 vs. 50%, p = 0.03, Fisher's exact test), primarily follicular and diffuse B-cell lymphomas. Non-tumour findings included a bilateral ballooning degeneration of lens in 12% of Kif14 transgenic mice but no wild-type mice (p = 0.02). Overall, this work reveals a novel association of Kif14 overexpression with lymphoma but suggests that Kif14 does not have as prominent a role in initiating cancer in other cell types as it does in accelerating tumour development in response to other oncogenic insults.

Isolation of Retinal Arterioles for Ex Vivo Cell Physiology Studies.

The retina is a highly metabolically active tissue that requires a substantial blood supply. The retinal circulation supports the inner retina, while the choroidal vessels supply the photoreceptors. Alterations in retinal perfusion contribute to numerous sight-threatening disorders, including diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma and retinal branch vein occlusions. Understanding the molecular mechanisms involved in the control of blood flow through the retina and how these are altered during ocular disease could lead to the identification of new targets for the treatment of these conditions. Retinal arterioles are the main resistance vessels of the retina, and consequently, play a key role in regulating retinal hemodynamics through changes in luminal diameter. In recent years, we have developed methods for isolating arterioles from the rat retina which are suitable for a wide range of applications including cell physiology studies. This preparation has already begun to yield new insights into how blood flow is controlled in the retina and has allowed us to identify some of the key changes that occur during ocular disease. In this article, we describe methods for the isolation of rat retinal arterioles and include protocols for their use in patch-clamp electrophysiology, calcium imaging and pressure myography studies. These vessels are also amenable for use in PCR-, western blotting- and immunohistochemistry-based studies.

Characterization of a Spontaneously Immortalized Murine Müller Glial Cell Line QMMuC-1.

Purpose: Müller glia are critical for the survival of retinal neurons and the integrity of retinal blood vessels. Müller glial cultures are important tools for investigating Müller glial pathophysiology. Here, we report a spontaneously immortalized Müller glial cell line originally cultured and subsequently cloned from mouse pups. The cell line, Queen's University Murine Müller glia Clone-1 (QMMuC-1), has been cultured for over 60 passages, has morphologic features like primary Müller cell (PMC) cultures and remains stable. Methods: QMMuC-1 and PMC cells were processed for immunohistochemistry, quantitative RT-PCR, Western blotting, whole cell voltage-clamping, and bioenergetic profiling. Results: Immunocytochemistry showed that QMMuC-1 express known Müller glial markers, including glutamine synthetase, glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), alpha-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), Aquaporin 4, Kir4.1, interleukin 33 (IL-33), and sex determining region Y (SRY)-box2 (Sox2), but not Cone arrestin, Calbindin 1, CD68, and ionized calcium-binding adapter molecule 1 (Iba1). Compared with PMC, QMMuC-1 express higher levels of chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 2 (Ccl2), VEGFA, and glutamate aspartate transporter (GLAST), but lower levels of interleukin 6 (IL-6), brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1), and neurotrophin 3 (NTF3). Whole-cell patch clamp recordings demonstrated characteristic inward currents in response to L-glutamate and L-trans-pyrrolidine-2,4-dicarboxylic acid (PDC) by QMMuC-1 cells. The L-glutamate-induced current was significantly higher in QMMuC-1 cells compared with PMC. Bioenergetic profiling studies revealed similar levels of glycolysis and basal mitochondrial respiration between QMMuC-1 and PMC. However, mitochondrial spare capacity was significantly lower in QMMuC-1 compared with PMC. Conclusions: Our results suggest that the QMMuC-1 Müller glial cell line retains key characteristics of PMC with its unique profiles in cytokine/neurotrophic factor expression and mitochondrial respiration. QMMuC-1 has utility as an invaluable tool for understanding the role of Müller glia in physiological and pathological conditions.

Kif14 overexpression accelerates murine retinoblastoma development.

The mitotic kinesin KIF14 has an essential role in the recruitment of proteins required for the final stages of cytokinesis. Genomic gain and/or overexpression of KIF14 has been documented in retinoblastoma and a number of other cancers, such as breast, lung and ovarian carcinomas, strongly suggesting its role as an oncogene. Despite evidence of oncogenic properties in vitro and in xenografts, Kif14's role in tumor progression has not previously been studied in a transgenic cancer model. Using a novel Kif14 overexpressing, simian virus 40 large T-antigen retinoblastoma (TAg-RB) double transgenic mouse model, we aimed to determine Kif14's role in promoting retinal tumor formation. Tumor initiation and development in double transgenics and control TAg-RB littermates were documented in vivo over a time course by optical coherence tomography, with subsequent ex vivo quantification of tumor burden. Kif14 overexpression led to an accelerated initiation of tumor formation in the TAg-RB model and a significantly decreased tumor doubling time (1.8 vs. 2.9 weeks). Moreover, overall percentage tumor burden was also increased by Kif14 overexpression. These data provide the first evidence that Kif14 can promote tumor formation in susceptible cells in vivo.

A Simple Optical Coherence Tomography Quantification Method for Choroidal Neovascularization.

PURPOSE: Therapeutic efficacy is routinely assessed by measurement of lesion size using flatmounted choroids and confocal microscopy in the laser-induced choroidal neovascularization (L-CNV) rodent model. We investigated whether optical coherence tomography (OCT) quantification, using an ellipsoid volume measurement, was comparable to standard ex vivo evaluation methods for this model and whether this approach could be used to monitor treatment-related lesion changes. METHODS: Bruch's membrane was ruptured by argon laser in the dilated eyes of C57BL/6J mice, followed by intravitreal injections of anti-VEGF164 or vehicle, or no injection. In vivo OCT images were acquired using Micron III or InVivoVue systems at 7, 10, and/or 14 days post-laser and neovascular lesion volume was calculated as an ellipsoid. Subsequently, lesion volume was compared to that calculated from confocal Z-stack images of agglutinin-stained choroidal flatmounts. RESULTS: Ellipsoid volume measurement of orthogonal 2-dimensional OCT images obtained from different imaging systems correlated with ex vivo lesion volumes for L-CNV (Spearman's ρ=0.82, 0.75, and 0.82 at days 7, 10, and 14, respectively). Ellipsoid volume calculation allowed temporal monitoring and evaluation of CNV lesions in response to antivascular endothelial growth factor treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Ellipsoid volume measurements allow rapid, quantitative use of OCT for the assessment of CNV lesions in vivo. This novel method can be used with different OCT imaging systems with sensitivity to distinguish between treatment conditions. It may serve as a useful adjunct to the standard ex vivo confocal quantification, to assess therapeutic efficacy in preclinical models of CNV, and in models of other ocular diseases.

Optical coherence tomography enables imaging of tumor initiation in the TAg-RB mouse model of retinoblastoma.

PURPOSE: Retinoblastoma is the most common primary intraocular malignancy in children. Although significant advances in treatment have decreased mortality in recent years, morbidity continues to be associated with these therapies, and therefore, there is a pressing need for new therapeutic options. Transgenic mouse models are popular for testing new therapeutics as well as studying the pathophysiology of retinoblastoma. The T-antigen retinoblastoma (TAg-RB) model has close molecular and histological resemblance to human retinoblastoma tumors; these mice inactivate pRB by retinal-specific expression of the Simian Virus 40 T-antigens. Here, we evaluated whether optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging could be used to document tumor growth in the TAg-RB model from the earliest stages of tumor development. METHODS: The Micron III rodent imaging system was used to obtain fundus photographs and OCT images of both eyes of TAg-RB mice weekly from 2 to 12 weeks of age and at 16 and 20 weeks of age to document tumor development. Tumor morphology was confirmed with histological analysis. RESULTS: Before being visible on funduscopy, hyperreflective masses arising in the inner nuclear layer were evident at 2 weeks of age with OCT imaging. After most of these hyperreflective cell clusters disappeared around 4 weeks of age, the first tumors became visible on OCT and funduscopy by 6 weeks. The masses grew into discrete, discoid tumors, preferentially in the periphery, that developed more irregular morphology over time, eventually merging and displacing the inner retinal layers into the vitreous. CONCLUSIONS: OCT is a non-invasive imaging modality for tracking early TAg-RB tumor growth in vivo. Using OCT, we characterized TAg-positive cells as early as 2 weeks, corresponding to the earliest stages at which tumors are histologically evident, and well before they are evident with funduscopy. Tracking tumor growth from its earliest stages will allow better analysis of the efficacy of novel therapeutics and genetic factors tested in this powerful mouse model.

Carbon accounting and economic model uncertainty of emissions from biofuels-induced land use change.

Few of the numerous published studies of the emissions from biofuels-induced "indirect" land use change (ILUC) attempt to propagate and quantify uncertainty, and those that have done so have restricted their analysis to a portion of the modeling systems used. In this study, we pair a global, computable general equilibrium model with a model of greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change to quantify the parametric uncertainty in the paired modeling system's estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from ILUC induced by expanded production of three biofuels. We find that for the three fuel systems examined--US corn ethanol, Brazilian sugar cane ethanol, and US soybean biodiesel--95% of the results occurred within ±20 g CO2e MJ(-1) of the mean (coefficient of variation of 20-45%), with economic model parameters related to crop yield and the productivity of newly converted cropland (from forestry and pasture) contributing most of the variance in estimated ILUC emissions intensity. Although the experiments performed here allow us to characterize parametric uncertainty, changes to the model structure have the potential to shift the mean by tens of grams of CO2e per megajoule and further broaden distributions for ILUC emission intensities.

Regulation of ischemic neuronal death by E2F4-p130 protein complexes.

Inappropriate activation of cell cycle proteins, in particular cyclin D/Cdk4, is implicated in neuronal death induced by various pathologic stresses, including DNA damage and ischemia. Key targets of Cdk4 in proliferating cells include members of the E2F transcription factors, which mediate the expression of cell cycle proteins as well as death-inducing genes. However, the presence of multiple E2F family members complicates our understanding of their role in death. We focused on whether E2F4, an E2F member believed to exhibit crucial control over the maintenance of a differentiated state of neurons, may be critical in ischemic neuronal death. We observed that, in contrast to E2F1 and E2F3, which sensitize to death, E2F4 plays a crucial protective role in neuronal death evoked by DNA damage, hypoxia, and global ischemic insult both in vitro and in vivo. E2F4 occupies promoter regions of proapoptotic factors, such as B-Myb, under basal conditions. Following stress exposure, E2F4-p130 complexes are lost rapidly along with the presence of E2F4 at E2F-containing B-Myb promoter sites. In contrast, the presence of E2F1 at B-Myb sites increases with stress. Furthermore, B-Myb and C-Myb expression increases with ischemic insult. Taken together, we propose a model by which E2F4 plays a protective role in neurons from ischemic insult by forming repressive complexes that prevent prodeath factors such as Myb from being expressed.

Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation.

This study examines whether policies to encourage cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can abate global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sparing land from deforestation. We use an economic model of global land use to investigate, from 2010 to 2030, the global agricultural outcomes, land use changes, and GHG abatement resulting from two potential Brazilian policies: a tax on cattle from conventional pasture and a subsidy for cattle from semi-intensive pasture. We find that under either policy, Brazil could achieve considerable sparing of forests and abatement of GHGs, in line with its national policy targets. The land spared, particularly under the tax, is far less than proportional to the productivity increased. However, the tax, despite prompting less adoption of semi-intensive ranching, delivers slightly more forest sparing and GHG abatement than the subsidy. This difference is explained by increased deforestation associated with increased beef consumption under the subsidy and reduced deforestation associated with reduced beef consumption under the tax. Complementary policies to directly limit deforestation could help limit these effects. GHG abatement from either the tax or subsidy appears inexpensive but, over time, the tax would become cheaper than the subsidy. A revenue-neutral combination of the policies could be an element of a sustainable development strategy for Brazil and other emerging economies seeking to balance agricultural development and forest protection.

Accounting for indirect land-use change in the life cycle assessment of biofuel supply chains.

The expansion of land used for crop production causes variable direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions, and other economic, social and environmental effects. We analyse the use of life cycle analysis (LCA) for estimating the carbon intensity of biofuel production from indirect land-use change (ILUC). Two approaches are critiqued: direct, attributional life cycle analysis and consequential life cycle analysis (CLCA). A proposed hybrid 'combined model' of the two approaches for ILUC analysis relies on first defining the system boundary of the resulting full LCA. Choices are then made as to the modelling methodology (economic equilibrium or cause-effect), data inputs, land area analysis, carbon stock accounting and uncertainty analysis to be included. We conclude that CLCA is applicable for estimating the historic emissions from ILUC, although improvements to the hybrid approach proposed, coupled with regular updating, are required, and uncertainly values must be adequately represented; however, the scope and the depth of the expansion of the system boundaries required for CLCA remain controversial. In addition, robust prediction, monitoring and accounting frameworks for the dynamic and highly uncertain nature of future crop yields and the effectiveness of policies to reduce deforestation and encourage afforestation remain elusive. Finally, establishing compatible and comparable accounting frameworks for ILUC between the USA, the European Union, South East Asia, Africa, Brazil and other major biofuel trading blocs is urgently needed if substantial distortions between these markets, which would reduce its application in policy outcomes, are to be avoided.