Estimating the Potential Health Benefits of Air Quality Warnings.

National, state, and local air quality authorities issue warnings urging residents to stay indoors or to take other precautions when pollutant levels are expected to exceed defined thresholds. Previous work explores the impact of warnings on specific activities but not the health improvements that might result if individuals fully responded to the recommendations. We estimate these potential health impacts using recent pollution data in three U.S. locations: Denver, Colorado; Los Angeles, California; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. We focus on mortality risks among the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable. Under the strong assumptions of no infiltration and no offsetting indoor sources, we estimate that the benefits associated with avoiding ambient ozone and fine particle exposure are generally less than $14 per person for one additional hour spent indoors on days when air quality thresholds are exceeded. These estimates are sensitive to assumptions regarding the relationship between decreased exposure and mortality risks. Individuals' decisions to stay indoors likely depend on the value of the health benefits compared with the value of forgone work and leisure activities. While the national warning system provides flexibility and allows individuals to tailor their responses to personal circumstances, our analysis suggests that its benefits under typical conditions are small. The benefits of warnings under wildfire or other extreme conditions may be much greater.

Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions in Global Benefit-Cost Analysis.

The estimates used to value mortality risk reductions are a major determinant of the benefits of many public health and environmental policies. These estimates (typically expressed as the value per statistical life, VSL) describe the willingness of those affected by a policy to exchange their own income for the risk reductions they experience. While these values are relatively well studied in high-income countries, less is known about the values held by lower-income populations. We identify 26 studies conducted in the 172 countries considered low- or middle-income in any of the past 20 years; several have significant limitations. Thus there are few or no direct estimates of VSL for most such countries. Instead, analysts typically extrapolate values from wealthier countries, adjusting only for income differences. This extrapolation requires selecting a base value and an income elasticity that summarizes the rate at which VSL changes with income. Because any such approach depends on assumptions of uncertain validity, we recommend that analysts conduct a standardized sensitivity analysis to assess the extent to which their conclusions change depending on these estimates. In the longer term, more research on the value of mortality risk reductions in low- and middle-income countries is essential.

Vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 expression in endothelial cells exposed to physiological coronary wall shear stresses.

Atherosclerosis is consistently found in bifurcations and curved segments of the circulatory system, indicating disturbed hemodynamics may participate in disease development. In vivo and in vitro studies have shown that endothelial cells (ECs) alter their gene expression in response to their hemodynamic environment, in a manner that is highly dependent on the exact nature of the applied forces. This research exposes cultured ECs to flow patterns present in the coronary arterial network, in order to determine the role of hemodynamic forces in plaque initiation. Vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) was examined as an indicator of plaque growth, as it participates in monocyte adhesion, which is one of the initial steps in the formation of fatty lesions. The hemodynamics of a healthy right and left coronary artery were determined by reconstructing 3D models from cineangiograms and employing computational fluid dynamic models to establish physiological coronary flow patterns. Wall shear stress (WSS) profiles selected from these studies were applied to ECs in a cone and plate bioreactor. The cone and plate system was specifically designed to be capable of reproducing the high frequency harmonics present in physiological waveforms. The shear stresses chosen represent those from regions prone to disease development and healthier arterial segments. The levels of the transcriptional and cell surface anchored VCAM-1 were quantified by flow cytometry and real time RT-PCR over a number of timepoints to obtain a complete picture of the relationship between this adhesion molecule and the applied shear stress. The WSS profiles from regions consistently displaying a higher incidence of plaques in vivo, induced greater levels of VCAM-1, particularly at the earlier timepoints. Conversely, the WSS profile from a straight section of vessel with undisturbed flow indicated no upregulation in VCAM-1 and a significant downregulation after 24 h, when compared with static controls. Low shear stress from the outer wall of a bifurcation induced four times the levels of VCAM-1 messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) after four hours when compared with levels of mRNA induced by WSS from a straight arterial section. This shear profile also induced prolonged expression of the surface protein of this molecule. The current study has provided insight into the possible influences of coronary hemodynamics on plaque localization, with VCAM-1 only significantly induced by the WSS from disease prone regions.