The impact of different data handling strategies in exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis of diary measures: an evaluation using simulated and real-world asthma nighttime symptoms diary data.

BACKGROUND: Daily diaries are an important modality for patient-reported outcome assessment. They typically comprise multiple questions, so understanding their underlying structure is key to appropriate analysis and interpretation. Structural evaluation of such measures poses challenges due to the high volume of repeated measurements. Potential strategies include selecting a single day, averaging item-level observations over time, or using all data while accounting for its multilevel structure. METHOD: The above strategies were evaluated in a simulated dataset via exploratory and confirmatory factor modelling by comparing their impact on various estimates (i.e., inter-item correlations, factor loadings, model fit). Each strategy was additionally explored using real-world data from an observational study (the Asthma Nighttime Symptoms Diary). RESULTS: Both single day and item average strategies resulted in biased factor loadings. The former displayed lower overall bias (single day: 0.064; item average: 0.121) and mean square error (single day: 0.007; item average: 0.016) but greater frequency of incorrect factor number identification compared with the latter (single day: 46.4%; item average: 0%). Increased estimated inter-item correlations were apparent in the item-average method. Non-trivial between- and within-person variance highlighted the utility of a multilevel approach. However, convergence issues and Heywood cases were more common under the multilevel approach (90.2% and 100.0%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a multilevel approach can enhance our insight when evaluating the structural properties of daily diary data; however, implementation challenges still remain. Our work offers guidance on the impact of data handling decisions in diary assessment.

Investigating change across time in prevalence or association: the challenges of cross-study comparative research and possible solutions.

Cross-study research initiatives to understand change across time are an increasingly prominent component of social and health sciences, yet they present considerable practical, analytical and conceptual challenges. First, we discuss the key challenges to comparative research as a basis for detecting societal change, as well as possible solutions. We focus on studies which investigate changes across time in outcome occurrence or the magnitude and/or direction of associations. We discuss the use and importance of such research, study inclusion, sources of bias and mitigation, and interpretation. Second, we propose a structured framework (a checklist) that is intended to provide guidance for future authors and reviewers. Third, we outline a new open-access teaching resource that offers detailed instruction and reusable analytical syntax to guide newcomers on techniques for conducting comparative analysis and data visualisation (in both R and Stata formats). Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s44155-022-00021-1.

Trajectories of alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: a 35-year prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Research into alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients' prognosis has largely ignored the longitudinal dynamics in drinking behaviour. This study measured the association between alcohol consumption trajectories and mortality risk in CVD patients. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: UK-based Whitehall II Study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1306 participants with incident non-fatal CVD (coronary heart disease/stroke) events. MEASUREMENTS: Up to eight repeated measures of alcohol intake were available for each patient from the most recent assessment phase pre-incident CVD and all subsequent phases post-incident CVD, spanning up to three decades. Six trajectory groups of alcohol consumption were identified using group-based trajectory modelling and related to the risk of all-cause mortality, adjusting for demographics and changes in life-style and health status. FINDINGS: Three hundred and eighty deaths were recorded during a median follow-up of 5 years after patients' last alcohol assessment. Compared with patients who consistently drank moderately (≤ 14 units/week), former drinkers had a greater risk of mortality (hazard ratio = 1.74, 95% confidence interval = 1.19-2.54) after adjustment for covariates. There was no significantly increased risk of mortality in long-term abstainers, reduced moderate drinkers, stable or unstable heavy drinkers. Cross-sectional analyses based only on drinking information at patients' last assessment found no significant differences in mortality risk for abstainers, former or heavy drinkers versus moderate drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiovascular disease patients who consistently drink ≤ 14 units/week appear to have a similar risk of mortality to those who are long-term abstainers, which does not support a protective effect of moderate drinking on total mortality. Cardiovascular disease patients who stop drinking appear to have increased mortality risk compared with continuous moderate drinkers, but this may be linked to poor self-rated health before cardiovascular disease onset.

Trajectories of alcohol consumption up to 30 years before and after the diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases: a longitudinal case-control study of 12 502 participants.

BACKGROUND: To examine the longitudinal trajectories of alcohol consumption prior to and following the diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). METHODS: We conducted a case-control study of 2501 incident cases of angina, myocardial infarction or stroke and 10 001 matched controls without the condition. Repeated measures of alcohol were centred on the date of diagnosis, spanning up to 30 years before and after CVD onset. Mean trajectories of weekly consumption were estimated using growth curve models. RESULTS: For trajectories prior to diagnosis, mean volume of alcohol consumed among male cases increased over time, peaking at around 8 years before diagnosis at 95 (95% CI 60 to 130) g/week and declining afterwards. Trajectories following diagnosis showed mean consumption in male cases dropped from 87 (95% CI 54 to 120) g/week to 74 (95% CI 45 to 102) g/week after the date of diagnosis and then slightly rose to 78 (95% CI 40 to 116) g/week at the subsequent 3.5 years, before gradually declining to 31 (95% CI 2 to 61) g/week at 30 years after diagnosis. Mean consumption among female cases remained stable prior to diagnosis (at about 30 g/week), fell marginally to 25 (95% CI 20 to 30) g/week after the date of diagnosis and kept decreasing afterwards. Similar trajectories were obtained in cases and controls. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first attempt to show how patients with CVD change their drinking volume over such a wide time span. Future research needs to establish insight into drinking behaviour in other ways (such as frequency and context) and address the impact of changes in drinking on patients with CVD.

Changes in the body mass index and blood pressure association across time: Evidence from multiple cross-sectional and cohort studies.

Although body mass index (BMI) is considered a key determinant of high blood pressure, its importance may differ over time and by age group. We utilised separate data sources to investigate temporal changes in this association: 23 independent (newly sampled), repeated cross-sectional studies (Health Survey for England (HSE)) at ≥25 years (1994-2018; N = 126,742); and three British birth cohorts at 43-46 years (born 1946, 1958, and 1970; N = 18,657). In HSE, associations were weaker in more recent years, with this trend most pronounced amongst older adults. After adjustment for sex, anti-hypertensive treatment and education, the mean difference in systolic blood pressure (SBP) per 1 kg/m2 increase in BMI amongst adults ≥55 years was 0.75 mmHg (95%CI: 0.60-0.90) in 1994, 0.66 mmHg (0.46-0.85) in 2003, and 0.53 mmHg (0.35-0.71) in 2018. In the 1958 and 1970 cohorts, BMI and SBP associations were of similar magnitude yet weaker in the 1946 cohort, potentially due to differences in blood pressure measurement device. Quantile regression analyses suggested that associations between BMI and SBP were present both below and above the hypertension threshold. A weaker association between BMI and blood pressure may partly offset the public health impacts of increasing obesity prevalence. However, despite sizable increases in use of antihypertensive medication, BMI remains positively associated with SBP in all ages. Our findings highlight the need to tackle non-medical factors such as population diet which influence both BMI and blood pressure, and the utility of using multiple datasets to obtain robust inferences on trends in risk factor-outcome associations across time.

Association of alcohol consumption with morbidity and mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: original data and meta-analysis of 48,423 men and women.

BACKGROUND: Light-to-moderate alcohol consumption has been reported to be cardio-protective among apparently healthy individuals; however, it is unclear whether this association is also present in those with disease. To examine the association between alcohol consumption and prognosis in individuals with pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD), we conducted a series of meta-analyses of new findings from three large-scale cohorts and existing published studies. METHODS: We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and subsequent cardiovascular events via de novo analyses of 14,386 patients with a previous myocardial infarction, angina, or stroke in the UK Biobank Study (median follow-up 8.7 years, interquartile range [IQR] 8.0-9.5), involving 1640 deaths and 2950 subsequent events, and 2802 patients and 1257 deaths in 15 waves of the Health Survey for England 1994-2008 and three waves of the Scottish Health Survey 1995, 1998, and 2003 (median follow-up 9.5 years, IQR 5.7-13.0). This was augmented with findings from 12 published studies identified through a systematic review, providing data on 31,235 patients, 5095 deaths, and 1414 subsequent events. To determine the best-fitting dose-response association between alcohol and each outcome in the combined sample of 48,423 patients, models were constructed using fractional polynomial regression, adjusting at least for age, sex, and smoking status. RESULTS: Alcohol consumption was associated with all assessed outcomes in a J-shaped manner relative to current non-drinkers, with a risk reduction that peaked at 7 g/day (relative risk 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.73-0.85) for all-cause mortality, 8 g/day (0.73, 0.64-0.83) for cardiovascular mortality and 6 g/day (0.50, 0.26-0.96) for cardiovascular events, and remained significant up to 62, 50, and 15 g/day, respectively. No statistically significant elevated risks were found at higher levels of drinking. In the few studies that excluded former drinkers from the non-drinking reference group, reductions in risk among light-to-moderate drinkers were attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: For secondary prevention of CVD, current drinkers may not need to stop drinking. However, they should be informed that the lowest risk of mortality and having another cardiovascular event is likely to be associated with lower levels of drinking, that is up to approximately 105g (or equivalent to 13 UK units, with one unit equal to half a pint of beer/lager/cider, half a glass of wine, or one measure of spirits) a week.

Sustained heavy drinking over 25 years is associated with increased N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptides in early old age: Population-based cohort study.

Heavy alcohol consumption is associated with an increased risk of heart failure. We sought to investigate whether levels of NT-proBNP differ by alcohol consumption profiles, both current drinking as well as cumulative exposure to drinking over several decades in a general population sample. METHODS: Data on 2054 participants (49% male) were taken from the UK Medical Research Council National Survey for Health and Development, a longitudinal cohort study based on a nationally representative sample of births in 1946. Categories of long-term alcohol consumption were created based on consumption over 25 years of observations and compared with levels of NT-proBNP measured at mean age 63. RESULTS: We found that those who drank heavily (both currently and long-term) had higher levels of NT-proBNP than moderate drinkers, after adjusting for major confounders (age, sex, socio-economic position and smoking). As NT-proBNP has attracted attention as a biomarker for heart failure, this suggests a critical pathway through which heavy drinking may increase risk of this cardiovascular disease. When we looked at heavy drinkers who varied their intake over the decades, it was only the recently heavy group that had higher levels of NT-proBNP. Further work is needed to demonstrate whether effects are reversible upon cessation of heavy drinking, but this finding highlights the need to have repeated data to unpack dynamics over time. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest heavy drinkers could be screened for NT-proBNP levels in order to identify those at high risk earlier in the clinical stages of heart failure and targeted for risk reduction strategies.

Association of thirty-year alcohol consumption typologies and fatty liver: Findings from a large population cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the longitudinal relationship between repeated measures of alcohol consumption and risk of developing fatty liver. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This study includes 5407 men and women from a British population-based cohort, the Whitehall II study of civil servants, who self-reported alcohol consumption by questionnaire over approximately 30 years (1985-1989 through to 2012-2013). Drinking typologies during midlife were linked to measures of fatty liver (the fatty liver index, FLI) when participants were in older age (age range 60-84 years) and adjusted for age, socio-economic position, ethnicity, and smoking. RESULTS: Those who consistently drank heavily had two-fold higher odds of increased FLI compared to stable low-risk moderate drinkers after adjustment for covariates (men: OR = 2.04, 95%CI = 1.53-2.74; women: OR = 2.24, 95%CI = 1.08-4.55). Former drinkers also had an increased FLI compared to low-risk drinkers (men: OR = 2.09, 95%CI = 1.55-2.85; women: OR = 1.68, 95%CI = 1.08-2.67). There were non-significant differences in FLI between non-drinkers and stable low-risk drinkers. Among women, there was no increased risk for current heavy drinkers in cross sectional analyses. CONCLUSION: Drinking habits among adults during midlife affect the development of fatty liver, and sustained heavy drinking is associated with an increased FLI compared to stable low-risk drinkers. After the exclusion of former drinkers, there was no difference between non-drinkers and low-risk drinkers, which does not support a protective effect on fatty liver from low-risk drinking. Cross-sectional analyses among women did not find an increased risk of heavy drinking compared to low-risk drinkers, thus highlighting the need to take a longitudinal approach.

Association of longitudinal alcohol consumption trajectories with coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis of six cohort studies using individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that alcohol intake trajectories differ in their associations with biomarkers of cardiovascular functioning, but it remains unclear if they also differ in their relationship to actual coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence. Using multiple longitudinal cohort studies, we evaluated the association between long-term alcohol consumption trajectories and CHD. METHODS: Data were drawn from six cohorts (five British and one French). The combined analytic sample comprised 35,132 individuals (62.1% male; individual cohorts ranging from 869 to 14,247 participants) of whom 4.9% experienced an incident (fatal or non-fatal) CHD event. Alcohol intake across three assessment periods of each cohort was used to determine participants' intake trajectories over approximately 10 years. Time to onset for (i) incident CHD and (ii) fatal CHD was established using surveys and linked medical record data. A meta-analysis of individual participant data was employed to estimate the intake trajectories' association with CHD onset, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Compared to consistently moderate drinkers (males: 1-168 g ethanol/week; females: 1-112 g ethanol/week), inconsistently moderate drinkers had a significantly greater risk of incident CHD [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02-1.37]. An elevated risk of incident CHD was also found for former drinkers (HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.13-1.52) and consistent non-drinkers (HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.21-1.78), although, after sex stratification, the latter effect was only evident for females. When examining fatal CHD outcomes alone, only former drinkers had a significantly elevated risk, though hazard ratios for consistent non-drinkers were near identical. No evidence of elevated CHD risk was found for consistently heavy drinkers, and a weak association with fatal CHD for inconsistently heavy drinkers was attenuated following adjustment for confounding factors. CONCLUSIONS: Using prospectively recorded alcohol data, this study has shown how instability in drinking behaviours over time is associated with risk of CHD. As well as individuals who abstain from drinking (long term or more recently), those who are inconsistently moderate in their alcohol intake have a higher risk of experiencing CHD. This finding suggests that policies and interventions specifically encouraging consistency in adherence to lower-risk drinking guidelines could have public health benefits in reducing the population burden of CHD. The absence of an effect amongst heavy drinkers should be interpreted with caution given the known wider health risks associated with such intake. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03133689 .