World Health Organization regional assessments of the risks of poliovirus outbreaks.

While global polio eradication requires tremendous efforts in countries where wild polioviruses (WPVs) circulate, numerous outbreaks have occurred following WPV importation into previously polio-free countries. Countries that have interrupted endemic WPV transmission should continue to conduct routine risk assessments and implement mitigation activities to maintain their polio-free status as long as wild poliovirus circulates anywhere in the world. This article reviews the methods used by World Health Organization (WHO) regional offices to qualitatively assess risk of WPV outbreaks following an importation. We describe the strengths and weaknesses of various risk assessment approaches, and opportunities to harmonize approaches. These qualitative assessments broadly categorize risk as high, medium, or low using available national information related to susceptibility, the ability to rapidly detect WPV, and other population or program factors that influence transmission, which the regions characterize using polio vaccination coverage, surveillance data, and other indicators (e.g., sanitation), respectively. Data quality and adequacy represent a challenge in all regions. WHO regions differ with respect to the methods, processes, cut-off values, and weighting used, which limits comparisons of risk assessment results among regions. Ongoing evaluation of indicators within regions and further harmonization of methods between regions are needed to effectively plan risk mitigation activities in a setting of finite resources for funding and continued WPV circulation.

Polio control after certification: major issues outstanding.

Now that the global eradication of wild poliovirus is almost within sight, planning for the post-certification era is becoming a priority issue. It is agreed that a stockpile of appropriate polio vaccines will need to be established, and a surveillance and response capacity will need to be maintained, in order to protect the world against any possible future outbreaks attributable either to the persistence of wild poliovirus or vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) or to the unintentional or intentional release of poliovirus from a laboratory or vaccine store. Although it has been suggested that the stockpile should consist of monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine (mOPV), many questions remain concerning its nature, financing, management, and use--in particular, because of uncertainties over future national vaccination policies, and over the availability of different vaccines, after the certification of wild poliovirus eradication. There are further uncertainties concerning the possible role and efficacy of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) used either routinely or in outbreak control in low-hygiene settings, the potential for rapid geographical spread of polioviruses should an outbreak occur after certification, and the risks inherent in introducing additional oral polio vaccine (OPV) viruses into populations in which the vaccine coverage and prevalence of immunity have declined, and which may thus favour the spread of VDPVs. Given these important gaps in knowledge, no country should discontinue polio vaccination until a coordinated policy for the post-certification era has been developed and the recommended measures have been put in place.

Importation and circulation of poliovirus in Bulgaria in 2001.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the circumstances in which poliomyelitis occurred among three children in Bulgaria during 2001 and to describe the public health response. METHODS: Bulgarian authorities investigated the three cases of polio and their contacts, conducted faecal and serological screening of children from high-risk groups, implemented enhanced surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis, and conducted supplemental immunization activities. FINDINGS: The three cases of polio studied had not been vaccinated and lived in socioeconomically deprived areas of two cities. Four Roma children from the Bourgas district had antibody titres to serotype 1 poliovirus only, and wild type 1 virus was isolated from the faeces of two asymptomatic Roma children in the Bourgas and Sofia districts. Poliovirus isolates were related genetically and represented a single evolutionary lineage; genomic sequences were less than 90% identical to poliovirus strains isolated previously in Europe, but 98.3% similar to a strain isolated in India in 2000. No cases or wild virus isolates were found after supplemental immunization activities were launched in May 2001. CONCLUSIONS: In Bulgaria, an imported poliovirus was able to circulate for two to five months among minority populations. Surveillance data strongly suggest that wild poliovirus circulation ceased shortly after supplemental immunization activities with oral poliovirus vaccine were conducted.