Modelling the impact of CD4 testing on mortality from TB and cryptococcal meningitis among patients with advanced HIV disease in nine countries.

INTRODUCTION: Despite antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up among people living with HIV (PLHIV), those with advanced HIV disease (AHD) (defined in adults as CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 or clinical stage 3 or 4), remain at high risk of death from opportunistic infections. The shift from routine baseline CD4 testing towards viral load testing in conjunction with "Test and Treat" has limited AHD identification. METHODS: We used official estimates and existing epidemiological data to project deaths from tuberculosis (TB) and cryptococcal meningitis (CM) among PLHIV-initiating ART with CD4 <200 cells/mm3 , in the absence of select World Health Organization recommended diagnostic or therapeutic protocols for patients with AHD. We modelled the reduction in deaths, based on the performance of screening/diagnostic testing and the coverage and efficacy of treatment/preventive therapies for TB and CM. We compared projected TB and CM deaths in the first year of ART from 2019 to 2024, with and without CD4 testing. The analysis was performed for nine countries: South Africa, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo. RESULTS: The effect of CD4 testing comes through increased identification of AHD and consequent eligibility for protocols for AHD prevention, diagnosis and management; algorithms for CD4 testing avert between 31% and 38% of deaths from TB and CM in the first year of ART. The number of CD4 tests required per death averted varies widely by country from approximately 101 for South Africa to 917 for Kenya. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis supports retaining baseline CD4 testing to avert deaths from TB and CM, the two most deadly opportunistic infections among patients with AHD. However, national programmes will need to weigh the cost of increasing CD4 access against other HIV-related priorities and allocate resources accordingly.

Loss to follow-up before and after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in HIV facilities in Lilongwe, Malawi.

INTRODUCTION: Although several studies have explored factors associated with loss to follow-up (LTFU) from HIV care, there remains a gap in understanding how these factors vary by setting, volume of patient and patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. We determined rates and factors associated with LTFU in HIV care Lilongwe, Malawi. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected individuals aged 15 years or older at the time of registration for HIV care in 12 ART facilities, between April 2012 and March 2013. HIV-positive individuals who had not started ART (pre-ART patients) were clinically assessed to determine ART eligibility at registration and during clinic follow-up visits. ART-eligible patients were initiated on triple antiretroviral combination. Study data were abstracted from patients' cards, facility ART registers or electronic medical record system from the date of registration for HIV care to a maximum follow-up period of 24 months. Descriptive statistics were undertaken to summarize characteristics of the study patients. Separate univariable and multivariable poisson regression models were used to explore factors associated with LTFU in pre-ART and ART care. RESULTS: A total of 10,812 HIV-infected individuals registered for HIV care. Of these patients, 1,907 (18%) and 8,905 (82%) enrolled in pre-ART and ART care, respectively. Of the 1,907 pre-ART patients, 490 (26%) subsequently initiated ART and were included in both the pre-ART and ART analyses. The LTFU rates among patients in pre-ART and ART care were 48 and 26 per 100 person-years, respectively. Of the 9,105 ART patients with reasons for starting ART, 2,451 (27%) were initiated on ART because of pregnancy or breastfeeding (Option B+) status. Multivariable analysis showed that being ≥35 years and female were associated with decreased risk of LTFU in the pre-ART and ART phases of HIV care. However, being in WHO clinical stage 3 (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-1.51) and stage 4 (aRR 1.87, 95% CI: 1.62-2.18), body mass index ≤ 18.4 (aRR 1.24, 95% CI: 1.11-1.39) at ART initiation, poor adherence to clinic appointments (aRR 4.55, 95% CI: 4.16-4.97) and receiving HIV care in rural facilities (aRR 2.32, 95% CI: 1.94-2.87) were associated with increased risk of LTFU among ART patients. Being re-initiated on ART once (aRR 0.20, 95% CI: 0.17-0.22), more than once (aRR 0.06, 95% CI: 0.05-0.07), and being enrolled at a low-volume facility (aRR 0.25, 95% CI: 0.20-0.30) were associated with decreased risk of LTFU from ART care. CONCLUSION: A sizeable proportion of ART LTFU occurred among women enrolled during pregnancy or breast-feeding. Non- compliance to clinic and receiving ART in a rural facility or high-volume facility were associated with increased risk of LTFU from ART care. Developing effective interventions that target high-risk subgroups and contexts may help reduce LTFU from HIV care.