Livestock keeping, mosquitoes and community viewpoints: a mixed methods assessment of relationships between livestock management, malaria vector biting risk and community perspectives in rural Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Livestock keeping is one of the potential factors related to malaria transmission. To date, the impact of livestock keeping on malaria transmission remains inconclusive, as some studies suggest a zooprophylactic effect while others indicate a zoopotentiation effect. This study assessed the impact of livestock management on malaria transmission risks in rural Tanzania. Additionally, the study explored the knowledge and perceptions of residents about the relationships between livestock keeping and malaria transmission risks in a selected village. METHODS: In a longitudinal entomological study in Minepa village, South Eastern Tanzania, 40 households were randomly selected (20 with livestock, 20 without). Weekly mosquito collection was performed from January to April 2023. Indoor and outdoor collections used CDC-Light traps, Prokopack aspirators, human-baited double-net traps, and resting buckets. A subsample of mosquitoes was analysed using PCR and ELISA for mosquito species identification and blood meal detection. Livestock's impact on mosquito density was assessed using negative binomial GLMMs. Additionally, in-depth interviews explored community knowledge and perceptions of the relationship between livestock keeping and malaria transmission risks. RESULTS: A total of 48,677 female Anopheles mosquitoes were collected. Out of these, 89% were Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) while other species were Anopheles funestus s.l., Anopheles pharoensis, Anopheles coustani, and Anopheles squamosus. The findings revealed a statistically significant increase in the overall number of An. gambiae s.l. outdoors (RR = 1.181, 95%CI 1.050-1.862, p = 0.043). Also, there was an increase of the mean number of An. funestus s.l. mosquitoes collected in households with livestock indoors (RR = 2.866, 95%CI: 1.471-5.582, p = 0.002) and outdoors (RR = 1.579,95%CI 1.080-2.865, p = 0.023). The human blood index of Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes from houses with livestock was less than those without livestock (OR = 0.149, 95%CI 0.110-0.178, p < 0.001). The majority of participants in the in-depth interviews reported a perceived high density of mosquitoes in houses with livestock compared to houses without livestock. CONCLUSION: Despite the potential for zooprophylaxis, this study indicates a higher malaria transmission risk in livestock-keeping communities. It is crucial to prioritize and implement targeted interventions to control vector populations within these communities. Furthermore, it is important to enhance community education and awareness regarding covariates such as livestock that influence malaria transmission.

Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. METHODS: Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. RESULTS: Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. CONCLUSION: Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.

Ecological niche modelling of Rift Valley fever virus vectors in Baringo, Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease that has an impact on human health and animal productivity. Here, we explore the use of vector presence modelling to predict the distribution of RVF vector species under climate change scenario to demonstrate the potential for geographic spread of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effect of climate change on RVF vector distribution in Baringo County, Kenya, with an aim of developing a risk map for spatial prediction of RVF outbreaks. METHODOLOGY: The study used data on vector presence and ecological niche modelling (MaxEnt) algorithm to predict the effect of climatic change on habitat suitability and the spatial distribution of RVF vectors in Baringo County. Data on species occurrence were obtained from longitudinal sampling of adult mosquitoes and larvae in the study area. We used present (2000) and future (2050) Bioclim climate databases to model the vector distribution. RESULTS: Model results predicted potential suitable areas with high success rates for Culex quinquefasciatus, Culex univitattus, Mansonia africana, and Mansonia uniformis. Under the present climatic conditions, the lowlands were found to be highly suitable for all the species. Future climatic conditions indicate an increase in the spatial distribution of Cx. quinquefasciatus and M. africana. Model performance was statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Soil types, precipitation in the driest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and isothermality showed the highest predictive potential for the four species.