ABSTRACT
Since chikungunya virus emerged in the Caribbean region in late 2013, ≈45 countries have experienced chikungunya outbreaks. We described and quantified the spatial and temporal events after the introduction and propagation of chikungunya into an immunologically naive population from the urban north-central region of Venezuela during 2014. The epidemic curve (n = 810 cases) unraveled within 5 months with a basic reproductive number of 3.7 and a radial spread traveled distance of 9.4 km at a mean velocity of 82.9 m/day. The highest disease diffusion speed occurred during the first 90 days, and space and space-time modeling suggest the epidemic followed a particular geographic pathway with spatiotemporal aggregation. The directionality and heterogeneity of transmission during the first introduction of chikungunya indicated existence of areas of diffusion and elevated risk for disease and highlight the importance of epidemic preparedness. This information will help in managing future threats of new or reemerging arboviruses.
Subject(s)
Chikungunya Fever/epidemiology , Chikungunya Fever/virology , Chikungunya virus , Chikungunya Fever/history , Chikungunya Fever/transmission , Disease Outbreaks , Epidemics , Geography, Medical , History, 21st Century , Humans , Public Health Surveillance , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Venezuela/epidemiologyABSTRACT
En esta investigación se llevó a cabo un estudio descriptivo de 114 muestras serológicas de pacientes con sospecha clínica de dengue, según criterios establecidos por la Organización Mundial para la Salud (OMS), que se recibieron durante el mes de junio de 2010 en el Centro Médico Dr. Rafael Guerra Méndez, de la ciudad de Valencia, Estado Carabobo. Las muestras se trasladaron al Instituto de Investigaciones Biomédicas de la Universidad de Carabobo (BIOMED-UC) y se analizaron por la técnica de RT-PCR anidada. Los resultados indicaron positividad en 46 muestras y la presencia de los 4 tipos del virus dengue. Los tipos detectados con mayor frecuencia fueron DEN-4 (34,8%), seguido por el DEN-3 (32,6%), sobre todo en niños ≤ 12 años que representaron el 54% del total de las muestras.
This research conducted a descriptive study of 114 serum samples from patients with clinical suspicion of dengue, according to criteria established by the World Health Organization (WHO) who were received during the month of June 2010 at the Medical Center Dr. Rafael Guerra Mendez in the city of Valencia, Carabobo State. Samples were transported to the Institute of Biomedical Research of the University of Carabobo (BIOMED-UC) and analyzed by RT-nested PCR. The results showed positivity in 46 samples and the presence of the 4 types of dengue virus. The most frequently detected types were DEN-4 (34.8%), followed by DEN-3 (32.6%) which were, especially in children ≤ 12 years and accounted for 54% of total samples.
