Potential distribution and spread of Japanese beetle in Washington State.

The Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica (Newman, 1841) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), was first detected in southern Washington State in 2020. Widespread trapping efforts ensued, and over 23,000 individuals were collected in both 2021 and 2022 in this region known for specialty crop production. The invasion of Japanese beetle is of major concern as it feeds on over 300 plant species and has shown an ability to spread across landscapes. Here, we created a habitat suitability model for Japanese beetle in Washington and used dispersal models to forecast invasion scenarios. Our models predict that the area of current establishment occurs in a region with highly suitable habitat. Moreover, vast areas of habitat that are likely highly suitable for Japanese beetle occur in coastal areas of western Washington, with medium to highly suitable habitat in central and eastern Washington. Dispersal models suggested that the beetle could spread throughout Washington within 20 years without management, which justifies quarantine and eradication measures. Timely map-based predictions can be useful tools to guide management of invasive species while also increasing citizen engagement to invaders.

Integrating Community Ecology into Models of Vector-Borne Virus Transmission.

Vector-borne plant viruses are a diverse and dynamic threat to agriculture with hundreds of economically damaging viruses and insect vector species. Mathematical models have greatly increased our understanding of how alterations of vector life history and host-vector-pathogen interactions can affect virus transmission. However, insect vectors also interact with species such as predators and competitors in food webs, and these interactions affect vector population size and behaviors in ways that mediate virus transmission. Studies assessing how species' interactions affect vector-borne pathogen transmission are limited in both number and scale, hampering the development of models that appropriately capture community-level effects on virus prevalence. Here, we review vector traits and community factors that affect virus transmission, explore the existing models of vector-borne virus transmission and areas where the principles of community ecology could improve the models and management, and finally evaluate virus transmission in agricultural systems. We conclude that models have expanded our understanding of disease dynamics through simulations of transmission but are limited in their ability to reflect the complexity of ecological interactions in real systems. We also document a need for experiments in agroecosystems, where the high availability of historical and remote-sensing data could serve to validate and improve vector-borne virus transmission models.