Risk scores for predicting incident heart failure admission in patients with chronic coronary syndromes: Validation in a prospective, monocentric, long-term, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) admission in chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) patients has a prognostic impact. Stratification schemes have been described for predicting this endpoint, but none of them has been externally validated. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to develop point scores for predicting incident HF admission with data from previous studies, to perform an external validation in an independent prospective cohort and to compare their discriminative ability for this event. METHODS: Independent predictive variables of HF admission in CCS patients without baseline HF were selected from four previous prospective studies (CARE, PEACE, CORONOR and CLARIFY), generating scores based on the relative magnitude of the coefficients of Cox of each variable. Finally, the scores were validated and compared in a monocentric prospective cohort. RESULTS: The validation cohort included 1212 patients followed for up to 17 years, with 171 patients suffering at least one HF admission in the follow-up. Discriminative ability for predicting HF admission was statistically significant for all, and paired comparisons among them were all nonsignificant except for CORONOR score was superior to CLARIFY score (C-statistic 0.73, 95%CI 0.69-0.76 vs. 0.69, 95% CI 0.65-0.73; p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: All tested scores showed significant discriminative ability for predicting incident HF admission in this independent validation study. Their discriminative ability was similar, with significant differences only between the two scores with higher and lower performance.

Long-Term Prognostic Impact of Sex in Patients with Chronic Coronary Syndrome: A 17-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

Background: Women and men with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) have different clinical features and management, and studies on mid-term prognosis have reported conflicting results. Our objective was to investigate the impact of the female sex in the prognosis of the disease in the very long term. Methods and Results: We investigated differential features and very long-term prognosis in 1268 consecutive outpatients with CCS (337 [27%] women and 931 [73%] men). Women were older than men, more likely to have hypertension, diabetes, angina, and atrial fibrillation, and less likely to be exsmoker/active smoker and to have been treated with coronary revascularization (p < 0.05 for all). The prescription of statins, antiplatelets, and betablockers was similar in both groups. After up to 17 years of follow-up (median = 11 years, interquartile range = 4-15 years), cumulative incidences of acute myocardial infarction (10.2% vs. 11.8%) or stroke (11% vs. 10%) at median follow-up were similar, but the risks of major cardiovascular events (acute myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death, 41.2% vs. 33.6%), hospital admission for heart failure (20.9% vs. 11.9%), or cardiovascular death (32.3% vs. 22.1%) were significantly higher for women (p < 0.0005), with a nonsignificant trend to higher overall mortality (45.2% vs. 39.1%, p = 0.07). However, after multivariate adjustment, all these differences disappeared. Conclusion: Although women and men with CCS presented a different clinical profile, and crude rates of major cardiovascular events, heart failure and cardiovascular death were higher in women, female sex was not an independent prognostic factor in this study with up to 17 years of follow-up.

Supervivencia a largo plazo de una población española con cardiopatía isquémica estable: el registro CICCOR / Long-term survival in a Spanish population with stable ischemic heart disease. The CICCOR registry

Introducción y objetivos: La información sobre el pronóstico de la cardiopatía isquémica crónica (CIC) es escasa. El objetivo es analizar los predictores de la mortalidad y la supervivencia a largo plazo de estos pacientes. Métodos: Estudio de cohortes prospectivo y monocéntrico que reclutó a 1.268 pacientes con CIC desde enero de 2000 hasta febrero de 2004. Se registraron los fallecimientos durante el seguimiento. Se compararon las tasas de mortalidad total y cardiovascular ajustadas con la población española. Se investigó la asociación de variables basales con la mortalidad. Resultados: La media de edad fue 68+/-10 años; el 73% eran varones. Tras 17 años de seguimiento máximo (mediana, 11 años), murieron 629 pacientes (50%). La edad (HR=1,08; IC95%, 1,07-1,11; p<0,001), la diabetes (HR=1,36; IC95%, 1,14-1,63; p <0,001), la frecuencia cardiaca (HR=1,01; IC95%, 1,00-1,02; p <0,001), la fibrilación auricular (HR=1,61; IC95%, 1,22-2,14); p=0,001), las alteraciones electrocardiográficas (HR=1,23; IC95%, 1,02-1,49; p=0,02) y el tabaquismo (HR=1,85; IC95%, 1,31-2,80; p=0,001) han resultado predictores independientes de la mortalidad total. La tasa de mortalidad total fue mayor que en la población española (47,81 frente a 36,29/1.000 pacientes/año; razón de mortalidad estandarizada=1,31; IC95%, 1,21-1,41). La tasa de mortalidad cardiovascular fue 15,25 frente a 6,94/1.000 pacientes/año de la población general (razón de mortalidad estandarizada=2,19; IC95%, 1,88-2,50). Conclusiones: En esta muestra de pacientes con CIC, la tasa de mortalidad fue significativamente mayor que en la población general. Las variables clínicas identifican a los pacientes con mayor riesgo de muerte en el seguimiento

Introduction and objectives: Data are lacking on the long-term prognosis of stable ischemic heart disease (SIHD). Our aim was to analyze long-term survival in patients with SIHD and to identify predictors of mortality. Methods: A total of 1268 outpatients with SIHD were recruited in this single-center prospective cohort study from January 2000 to February 2004. Cardiovascular and all-cause death during follow-up were registered. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were compared with those in the Spanish population adjusted by age, sex, and year. Predictors of these events were investigated. Results: The mean age was 68+/-10 years and 73% of the patients were male. After a follow-up lasting up to 17 years (median 11 years), 629 (50%) patients died. Independent predictors of all-cause mortality were age (HR, 1.08; 95%CI, 1.07-1.11; P <.001), diabetes (HR, 1.36; 95%CI, 1.14-1.63; P <.001), resting heart rate (HR, 1.01; 95%CI, 1.00-1.02; P <.001), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.61; 95%CI, 1.22-2.14; P=.001), electrocardiographic changes (HR, 1.23; 95%CI, 1.02-1.49; P=.02) and active smoking (HR, 1.85; 95%CI, 1.31-2.80; P=.001). All-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality rates were significantly higher in the sample than in the general Spanish population (47.81/1000 patients/y vs 36.29/1000 patients/y (standardized mortality rate, 1.31; 95%CI, 1.21-1.41) and 15.25/1000 patients/y vs 6.94/1000 patients/y (standardized mortality rate, 2.19; 95%CI, 1.88-2.50, respectively). Conclusions: The mortality rate was higher in this sample of patients with SIHD than in the general population. Several clinical variables can identify patients at higher risk of death during follow-up

Long-term Survival in a Spanish Population With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease. The CICCOR Registry.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Data are lacking on the long-term prognosis of stable ischemic heart disease (SIHD). Our aim was to analyze long-term survival in patients with SIHD and to identify predictors of mortality. METHODS: A total of 1268 outpatients with SIHD were recruited in this single-center prospective cohort study from January 2000 to February 2004. Cardiovascular and all-cause death during follow-up were registered. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality rates were compared with those in the Spanish population adjusted by age, sex, and year. Predictors of these events were investigated. RESULTS: The mean age was 68±10 years and 73% of the patients were male. After a follow-up lasting up to 17 years (median 11 years), 629 (50%) patients died. Independent predictors of all-cause mortality were age (HR, 1.08; 95%CI, 1.07-1.11; P <.001), diabetes (HR, 1.36; 95%CI, 1.14-1.63; P <.001), resting heart rate (HR, 1.01; 95%CI, 1.00-1.02; P <.001), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.61; 95%CI, 1.22-2.14; P=.001), electrocardiographic changes (HR, 1.23; 95%CI, 1.02-1.49; P=.02) and active smoking (HR, 1.85; 95%CI, 1.31-2.80; P=.001). All-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality rates were significantly higher in the sample than in the general Spanish population (47.81/1000 patients/y vs 36.29/1000 patients/y (standardized mortality rate, 1.31; 95%CI, 1.21-1.41) and 15.25/1000 patients/y vs 6.94/1000 patients/y (standardized mortality rate, 2.19; 95%CI, 1.88-2.50, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate was higher in this sample of patients with SIHD than in the general population. Several clinical variables can identify patients at higher risk of death during follow-up.