Applicable predictive factors extracted from peak flow trajectory for the prediction of asthma exacerbation.

BACKGROUND: Real-time asthma exacerbation prediction and acute asthma attack detection are essential for patients with severe asthma. Peak expiratory flow (PEF) exhibits a potential for use in long-term asthma self-monitoring. However, the method for processing PEF calculations remains to be clarified. OBJECTIVE: To develop clinically applicable novel exacerbation predictors calculated using PEF records. METHODS: Previously proposed exacerbation predictors, including the slope of PEF, percentage predicted PEF, percentage best PEF, the highest PEF over the lowest PEF within specific periods, and PEF coefficient of variation, in addition to a novel indicator delta PEF moving average (ΔMA), defined as the difference between 14-day and 3-day average PEF values, along with moving average (MA) adjusted for PEF reference (%ΔMA), were verified using the Hokkaido-based Investigative Cohort Analysis for Refractory Asthma data of 127 patients with severe asthma from whom 73,503 PEF observations were obtained. Receiver operating characteristic curves for all predictors were drawn, and the corresponding areas under the curve (AUCs) were computed. Regression analysis for MA and percentage MA were conducted. RESULTS: The most outstanding performance was shown by ΔMA and %ΔMA, with AUC values of 0.659 and 0.665 in the univariate model, respectively. When multivariate models were incorporated with random intercepts for individual participants, the AUC for ΔMA and %ΔMA increased to 0.907 and 0.919, respectively. CONCLUSION: The MA and percentage MA are valuable indicators that should be considered when deriving predictors from the PEF trajectory for monitoring exacerbations in patients with severe asthma. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Hokkaido-based Investigative Cohort Analysis for Refractory Asthma was registered in the University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN ID: 000003254). https://center6.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000003917.

Relationships of computed tomography-based small vessel indices of the lungs with ventilation heterogeneity and high transfer coefficients in non-smokers with asthma.

Background: The mechanism of high transfer coefficients of the lungs for carbon monoxide (Kco) in non-smokers with asthma is explained by the redistribution of blood flow to the area with preserved ventilation, to match the ventilation perfusion. Objectives: To examine whether ventilation heterogeneity, assessed by pulmonary function tests, is associated with computed tomography (CT)-based vascular indices and Kco in patients with asthma. Methods: Participants were enrolled from the Hokkaido-based Investigative Cohort Analysis for Refractory Asthma (Hi-CARAT) study that included a prospective asthmatic cohort. Pulmonary function tests including Kco, using single breath methods; total lung capacity (TLC), using multiple breath methods; and CT, were performed on the same day. The ratio of the lung volume assessed using single breath methods (alveolar volume; VA) to that using multiple breath methods (TLC) was calculated as an index of ventilation heterogeneity. The volume of the pulmonary small vessels <5 mm2 in the whole lung (BV5 volume), and number of BV5 at a theoretical surface area of the lungs from the plural surface (BV5 number) were evaluated using chest CT images. Results: The low VA/TLC group (the lowest quartile) had significantly lower BV5 number, BV5 volume, higher BV5 volume/BV5 number, and higher Kco compared to the high VA/TLC group (the highest quartile) in 117 non-smokers, but not in 67 smokers. Multivariable analysis showed that low VA/TLC was associated with low BV5 number, after adjusting for age, sex, weight, lung volume on CT, and CT emphysema index in non-smokers (not in smokers). Conclusion: Ventilation heterogeneity may be associated with low BV5 number and high Kco in non-smokers (not in smokers). Future studies need to determine the dynamic regional system in ventilation, perfusion, and diffusion in asthma.

Stronger Associations of Centrilobular Than Paraseptal Emphysema With Longitudinal Changes in Diffusing Capacity and Mortality in COPD.

BACKGROUND: The factors associated with longitudinal changes in diffusing capacity remain unclear among patients with COPD. Centrilobular emphysema (CLE) and paraseptal emphysema (PSE) are major emphysema subtypes that may have distinct clinical-physiological impacts in these patients. RESEARCH QUESTION: Are CLE and PSE differently associated with longitudinal changes in diffusing capacity and mortality in patients with COPD? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This pooled analysis included 399 patients with COPD from two prospective observational COPD cohorts. CLE and PSE were visually assessed on CT scan according to the Fleischner Society statement. The diffusing capacity and transfer coefficient of the lung for carbon monoxide (Dlco and KCO) and FEV1 were evaluated at least annually over a 5-year period. Mortality was recorded over 10 years. Longitudinal changes in FEV1, Dlco, and KCO and mortality were compared between mild or less severe and moderate or more severe CLE and between present and absent PSE in each Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage. RESULTS: The Dlco and KCO decline was weakly associated with FEV1 and greater in GOLD stage 3 or higher than in GOLD stages 1 and 2. Furthermore, moderate or more severe CLE, but not present PSE, was associated with steeper declines in Dlco for GOLD stages 1 and 3 or higher and KCO for all GOLD stages independent of age, sex, height, and smoking history. The moderate or more severe CLE, but not present PSE, was associated with additional FEV1 decline and higher 10-year mortality among patients with GOLD stage 3 or higher. INTERPRETATION: A CT scan finding of moderate or more severe CLE, but not PSE, was associated with a subsequent accelerated impairment in diffusing capacity and higher long-term mortality in severe GOLD stage among patients with COPD.

Association of serum CC16 levels with eosinophilic inflammation and respiratory dysfunction in severe asthma.

BACKGROUND: There are knowledge gaps in the potential role of Club cell 16-kDa secretory protein (CC16) in severe asthma phenotypes and type 2 inflammation, as well as the longitudinal effect of CC16 on pulmonary function tests and exacerbation risk in epidemiological studies. OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: To assess whether serum CC16 is associated with eosinophilic inflammation in patients with severe asthma. We also examined the effect of this protein on the annual decline in forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) and the risk of exacerbation using a longitudinal approach. We recruited 127 patients with severe asthma from 30 hospitals/pulmonary clinics in Hokkaido, Japan. The least square means and standard error were calculated for T-helper 2 (Th2) biomarkers and pulmonary function test across CC16 tertiles at baseline. We did the same for asthma exacerbation and annual decline in FEV1 with 3 and 5 years' follow-up, respectively. RESULTS: We found that serum CC16 was inversely associated with sputum eosinophils and blood periostin in a dose-response manner. Baseline CC16 and FEV1/forced vital capacity ratio were positively associated in adjusted models (p for trend = 0.008). Patients with the lowest tertile of serum CC16 levels at baseline had a -14.3 mL decline in FEV1 than those with the highest tertile over 5 years of follow-up (p for trend = 0.031, fully adjusted model). We did not find any association of CC16 with exacerbation risk. CONCLUSION: Patients with severe asthma with lower circulatory CC16 had enhanced eosinophilic inflammation with rapid FEV1 decline over time.

Differential role of mucus plugs in asthma: Effects of smoking and association with airway inflammation.

BACKGROUND: The physiological importance of mucus plugs in computed tomography (CT) imaging is being increasingly recognized. However, whether airway inflammation and smoking affect the association between mucus plugs and clinical-physiological outcomes in asthma remains to be elucidated. The objective of this study is to examine how airway inflammation and/or smoking affect the correlation of CT-based mucus plug scores with exacerbation frequency and airflow limitation indices in asthma. METHODS: A total of 168 patients with asthma who underwent chest CT and sputum evaluation were enrolled and classified in eosinophilic asthma (EA; n = 103) and non-eosinophilic asthma (NEA; n = 65) groups based on sputum eosinophil percentage (cut-off: 3%). The mucus plug score was defined as the number of lung segments with mucus plugs seen on CT. RESULTS: More mucus plugs were detected on CT scans in the EA group than in the NEA group, regardless of smoking status. Mucus plug score and exacerbation frequency during one year after enrollment were significantly associated in the EA group but not in the NEA group after adjusting for demographics, blood eosinophil count, and fractional exhaled nitric oxide. Mucus plug score was associated with percentage of predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s in non-smoking individuals in the EA and NEA group and in smoking individuals in the EA group but not in the NEA group after adjusting for demographics. CONCLUSIONS: The association of mucus plug score with exacerbation frequency and reduced lung function may vary due to airway inflammatory profile and smoking status in asthma.

Blood eosinophil count variability in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and severe asthma.

BACKGROUND: Blood eosinophils are essential biomarkers that vary substantially over time in patients with COPD and asthma. However, no study has identified the changes and effects in the changes of the blood eosinophil counts over time in both diseases. This study aimed to demonstrate blood eosinophil variability in patients with COPD and severe asthma based on these backgrounds. METHODS: A total of 172 patients with COPD from the Hokkaido COPD cohort study and 96 patients with severe asthma from the Hokkaido Severe Asthma Cohort Study, whose blood eosinophil counts were measured annually over a 3-year period, were analyzed. The factors contributing to consistently high or low blood eosinophil counts were examined in each cohort. The stability of the eosinophil classification (<150, 150-299, ≥300 cells/µL) was compared based on the number of asthma-like features in patients with COPD and the smoking status in patients with severe asthma. RESULTS: Among all the patients, the most stable range of baseline blood eosinophil counts differed between the two diseases, with <150 cells/µL in COPD and ≥300 cells/µL in severe asthma. In COPD, the number of asthma-like features (bronchodilator reversibility, blood eosinophilia, and atopy) affects the blood eosinophil count variation patterns. In severe asthma, smoking status did not affect the blood eosinophil count variation patterns. CONCLUSIONS: We identified variations in the blood eosinophil counts and their contributing factors in patients with COPD and severe asthma.

Subtyping emphysematous COPD by respiratory volume change distributions on CT.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable heterogeneity among patients with emphysematous chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We hypothesised that in addition to emphysema severity, ventilation distribution in emphysematous regions would be associated with clinical-physiological impairments in these patients. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the discordance between respiratory volume change distributions (from expiration to inspiration) in emphysematous and non-emphysematous regions affects COPD outcomes using two cohorts. METHODS: Emphysema was quantified using a low attenuation volume percentage on inspiratory CT (iLAV%). Local respiratory volume changes were calculated using non-rigidly registered expiratory/inspiratory CT. The Ventilation Discordance Index (VDI) represented the log-transformed Wasserstein distance quantifying discordance between respiratory volume change distributions in emphysematous and non-emphysematous regions. RESULTS: Patients with COPD in the first cohort (n=221) were classified into minimal emphysema (iLAV% <10%; n=113) and established emphysema with high VDI and low VDI groups (n=46 and 62, respectively). Forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) was lower in the low VDI group than in the other groups, with no difference between the high VDI and minimal emphysema groups. Higher iLAV%, more severe airway disease and hyperventilated emphysematous regions in the upper-middle lobes were independently associated with lower VDI. The second cohort analyses (n=93) confirmed these findings and showed greater annual FEV1 decline and higher mortality in the low VDI group than in the high VDI group independent of iLAV% and airway disease on CT. CONCLUSION: Lower VDI is associated with severe airflow limitation and higher mortality independent of emphysema severity and airway morphological changes in patients with emphysematous COPD.

Further evidence for association of YKL-40 with severe asthma airway remodeling.

BACKGROUND: The chitinase-like protein YKL-40 is associated with airflow limitation on spirometry and airway remodeling in patients with asthma. It remains unclear whether YKL-40 is associated with morphologic changes in the airways and parenchyma or with future progression of airflow limitation in severe asthma. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of circulating YKL-40 levels with morphologic changes in the airways and parenchyma and with longitudinal progression of airflow limitation. METHODS: The patients were participants in the Hokkaido Severe Asthma Cohort Study (n = 127), including smokers. This study consisted of 2 parts. In analysis 1, we analyzed associations between circulating YKL-40 levels and several asthma-related indices, including computed tomography-derived indices of proximal wall area percentage, the complexity of the airways (airway fractal dimension), and the parenchyma (exponent D) cross-sectionally (n = 97). In analysis 2, we evaluated the impact of circulating YKL-40 levels on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) decline longitudinally for a 5-year follow-up (n = 103). RESULTS: Circulating YKL-40 levels were significantly associated with proximal wall area percentage and airway fractal dimension (r = 0.25, P = .01; r = -0.22, P = .04, respectively), but not with exponent D. The mean annual change in FEV1 was -33.7 (± 23.3) mL/y, and the circulating YKL-40 level was a significant independent factor associated with annual FEV1 decline (ß = -0.24, P = .02), even after controlling for exponent D (ß = -0.26, P = .01). CONCLUSION: These results provide further evidence for the association of YKL-40 with the pathogenesis of airway remodeling in severe asthma.

Parenchymal destruction in asthma: Fixed airflow obstruction and lung function trajectory.

BACKGROUND: Fixed airflow obstruction (FAO) in asthma, particularly in nonsmokers, is generally believed to be caused by airway remodeling. However, parenchymal destruction may also contribute to FAO and longitudinal decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate parenchymal destruction, we used emphysema indices, exponent D, and low-attenuation area percentage (LAA%) on computed tomography (CT), and test whether the parenchymal destruction and airway disease are independently associated with FAO and FEV1 decline in both smoking and nonsmoking asthma. METHODS: Exponent D, LAA%, wall area percentage at segmental airways, and airway fractal dimension (AFD) in those with asthma were measured on inspiratory CT and compared to those in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). RESULTS: Exponent D was lower and LAA% was higher in COPD (n = 42) and asthma with FAO (n = 101) than in asthma without FAO (n = 88). The decreased exponent D and increased LAA% were associated with FAO regardless of smoking status or asthma severity. In multivariable analysis, decreased exponent D and increased LAA% were associated with an increased odds ratio of FAO and decreased FEV1, irrespective of wall area percentage and airway fractal dimension. Moreover, decreased exponent D affected the longitudinal decline in FEV1 in those with severe asthma, independent of smoking status. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with asthma with FAO showed parenchymal destruction regardless of smoking status and asthma severity. Parenchymal destruction was associated with an accelerated FEV1 decline, suggesting the involvements of both airway and parenchyma in the pathophysiology of a subgroup of asthma.

Combined assessment of pulmonary arterial enlargement and coronary calcification predicts the prognosis of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

INTRODUCTION: In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chest computed tomography (CT) provides clinically important cardiovascular findings, which include diameter of pulmonary artery (PA), its ratio to the diameter of the aorta (PA:A ratio), and coronary artery calcium score (CACS). The clinical importance of these cardiovascular findings has not been fully assessed in Japan, where cardiovascular morbidity and/or mortality is reported to be much less compared with Western counterparts. METHODS: PA diameter and PA:A ratio were measured in 172 and 130 patients with COPD who enrolled in the Hokkaido COPD cohort study and the Kyoto University cohort, respectively. CACS was measured in 131 and 128 patients in each cohort. RESULTS: While the highest quartile group in PA diameter was associated with higher all-cause mortality compared to the lowest quartile group in both cohorts, individual assessments of PA:A ratio and CACS were not associated with the long-term clinical outcomes. When PA diameter and CACS were combined, patients with PA enlargement (diameter >29.5 mm) and/or coronary calcification (score >440.8) were associated with higher all-cause mortality in both cohorts. CONCLUSION: Combined assessment of PA enlargement and CACS was associated with poor prognosis, which provides a clinical advantage in management of patients with COPD even in geographical regions with lower risk of cardiovascular diseases.

Central airway and peripheral lung structures in airway disease-dominant COPD.

The concept that the small airway is a primary pathological site for all COPD phenotypes has been challenged by recent findings that the disease starts from the central airways in COPD subgroups and that a smaller central airway tree increases COPD risk. This study aimed to examine whether the computed tomography (CT)-based airway disease-dominant (AD) subtype, defined using the central airway dimension, was less associated with small airway dysfunction (SAD) on CT, compared to the emphysema-dominant (ED) subtype. COPD patients were categorised into mild, AD, ED and mixed groups based on wall area per cent (WA%) of the segmental airways and low attenuation volume per cent in the Kyoto-Himeji (n=189) and Hokkaido COPD cohorts (n=93). The volume per cent of SAD regions (SAD%) was obtained by nonrigidly registering inspiratory and expiratory CT. The AD group had a lower SAD% than the ED group and similar SAD% to the mild group. The AD group had a smaller lumen size of airways proximal to the segmental airways and more frequent asthma history before age 40 years than the ED group. In multivariable analyses, while the AD and ED groups were similarly associated with greater airflow limitation, the ED, but not the AD, group was associated with greater SAD%, whereas the AD, but not the ED, group was associated with a smaller central airway size. The CT-based AD COPD subtype might be associated with a smaller central airway tree and asthma history, but not with peripheral lung pathologies including small airway disease, unlike the ED subtype.