Predicting Lifetime Transition Risk of Severe Visual Field Defects Using Monte Carlo Simulation in Japanese Patients with Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma.

PURPOSE: To maintain visual fields and quality of life over a lifetime, medical practice must be conducted taking into consideration not only visual field progression but also future visual field changes that occur over the patients' expected lifespan. The purpose of this study is to investigate the feasibility of establishing a model that predicts prognosis, estimating the proportion of glaucoma patients with severe visual field defects. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The data of 191 patients with primary open-angle glaucoma, with a predominance of normal-tension glaucoma, were used for this study. The model was developed based on patients' backgrounds and risk factors, using Monte Carlo simulation. A "severe visual field defect" was defined as ≤-20 dB. The mean deviation (MD) value for 10,000 virtual patients in each simulation pattern (144 patterns) was calculated using a predictive formula to estimate the MD slope, and the effects of risk factors and intraocular pressure (IOP) reduction on the proportion of patients with severe visual field defects were evaluated. RESULTS: Younger age, later-stage disease, more severe glaucomatous structural abnormalities and the presence of disc hemorrhage were associated with an increase in the progression rate of patients with severe visual field defects. Conversely, lower IOP was associated with a decrease in this rate. CONCLUSION: Combining regression analysis with Monte Carlo simulation could be a useful method for developing predictive models of prognosis in glaucoma patients.

Prediction of Visual Field Progression in Patients with Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma, Mainly Including Normal Tension Glaucoma.

An objective method to predict individual visual field progression will contribute to realise personalised medication. The purpose of this study was to establish a predictive formula for glaucomatous visual field progression in patients with Primary open-angle glaucoma, mainly including normal tension glaucoma. This study was a large-scale, longitudinal and retrospective study including 498 eyes of 312 patients visiting from June 2009 to May 2015. In this analysis, 191 eyes of 191 patients meeting all eligible criteria were used. A predictive formula to calculate the rate of glaucomatous visual field progression (mean deviation slope) was obtained through multivariate linear regression analysis by adopting "Angle of Retinal Nerve Fibre Layer Defect" at the baseline, "Vertical Cup-Disc ratio" at the baseline, "Presence or absence of Disc Haemorrhage" during the follow-up period, and "Mean IOP change (%)" during the follow-up period as predictors. Coefficient of determination of the formula was 0.20. The discriminative ability of the formula was evaluated as moderate performance using receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the area under the curve was approximately 0.75 at all cut-off values. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. The predictive formula established by this type of approach might be useful for personalised medication.