Cohabitation and Marriage Formation in Times of Fertility Decline: The Case of Sweden in the Twenty-First Century.

Developments over time in the prevalence of marriage and cohabitation formation has long received much interest, but less is known about more recent developments for different population subgroups in European countries. This applies as well to Sweden, a country considered a forerunner in family-demographic change. In contrast, much attention has been paid to the falling birth rates during the 2010s, and explanations that focus on the role of increasing uncertainties. In the Swedish case, the fertility decline has been documented across all main socio-demographic subgroups. The objective of this study is to examine whether the same situation holds for first marriage and cohabitation formation during the 2010s and the exceptional years of the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on Swedish population registers, including with new cohabitation data, we present annual indices of first marriage formation (1991-2022) and cohabitation formation (2012-2022) across a number of socio-demographic strata. We demonstrate a continuous decline in first marriage formation since the early 2010s with an additional sharp dip during the pandemic and a post-pandemic recovery. In contrast, there was a remarkable stability in cohabitation formation during 2012-2022. Although socio-demographic groups differ in their overall levels of marriage and cohabitation formation, the recent trends are strikingly similar across groups. Cohabiting couples, across population subgroups, have become less inclined to transition their union status to a more committed level, as manifested by marriage or parenthood. This occurred in spite of a positive economic climate in the 2010s and stable family policies, indicating that other forces are at play.

Who makes the decision to have children? Couples' childbearing intentions and actual childbearing.

This study investigates how the childbearing intentions of women and men in couples affect actual childbearing over the following years with the aim to explore whether women's or men's intentions may be more important. The study is set in Sweden, a country known for ranking high in terms of gender equality and a country with relatively high fertility. We use the Young Adult Panel Study (YAPS), which gives information about both partners' long-term childbearing intentions in 2009, and follow these couples for five years with register data on childbearing. In 30 percent of the couples, both partners intended to have a child, and out of these about three quarters have a child. The results show that, in general, both partners need to intend to have a child for the couple to do so but that women's intentions tend to have more influence over the decision to have a second or third child. This phenomenon is interpreted as decision-making in relation to the cost and utility of children for women and men.

Sweden's marriage revival: an analysis of the new-millennium switch from long-term decline to increasing popularity.

Usually seen as a forerunner in the development of new trends in family-demographic behaviour, Sweden has recently experienced a reversal in marriage trends, from a steady decline in marriage rate between the 1960s and 1990s, to a steady increase beginning in 1998. An event-history analysis of women's first marriages in the period 1991-2007, using register data, shows that compositional changes in labour-market activity and childbearing can only partly explain the reversal, and that apparently no part of it is explained by compositional changes in age, country of birth, educational level, and type of settlement. The evidence suggests that the popularity of marriage in Sweden is increasing, in contrast to what might be expected from the way demographic trends in Sweden and other Western countries are often portrayed in the literature.