The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world's forests to mitigate climate change.

Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5-$100/tCO2. We project 0.6-6.0 GtCO2 yr-1 in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2-393 billion USD yr-1, with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 30-54% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415-875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35-$100/tCO2, with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute ~10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO2 in 2055.

Potential complementarity between forest carbon sequestration incentives and biomass energy expansion.

There is a growing literature on the potential contributions the global forest sector could make toward long-term climate action goals through increased carbon sequestration and the provision of biomass for energy generation. However, little work to date has explored possible interactions between carbon sequestration incentives and bioenergy expansion policies in forestry. This study develops a simple conceptual model for evaluating whether carbon sequestration and biomass energy policies are carbon complements or substitutes. Then, we apply a dynamic structural model of the global forest sector to assess terrestrial carbon changes under different combinations of carbon sequestration price incentives and forest bioenergy expansion. Our results show that forest bioenergy expansion can complement carbon sequestration policies in the near- and medium-term, reducing marginal abatement costs and increasing mitigation potential. By the end of the century these policies become substitutes, with forest bioenergy expansion increasing the costs of carbon sequestration. This switch is driven by relatively high demand and price growth for pulpwood under scenarios with forest bioenergy expansion, which incentivizes management changes in the near- and medium-term that are carbon beneficial (e.g., afforestation and intensive margin shifts), but requires sustained increases in pulpwood harvest levels over the long-term.

Multi-centre Raman spectral mapping of oesophageal cancer tissues: a study to assess system transferability.

The potential for Raman spectroscopy to provide early and improved diagnosis on a wide range of tissue and biopsy samples in situ is well documented. The standard histopathology diagnostic methods of reviewing H&E and/or immunohistochemical (IHC) stained tissue sections provides valuable clinical information, but requires both logistics (review, analysis and interpretation by an expert) and costly processing and reagents. Vibrational spectroscopy offers a complimentary diagnostic tool providing specific and multiplexed information relating to molecular structure and composition, but is not yet used to a significant extent in a clinical setting. One of the challenges for clinical implementation is that each Raman spectrometer system will have different characteristics and therefore spectra are not readily compatible between systems. This is essential for clinical implementation where classification models are used to compare measured biochemical or tissue spectra against a library training dataset. In this study, we demonstrate the development and validation of a classification model to discriminate between adenocarcinoma (AC) and non-cancerous intraepithelial metaplasia (IM) oesophageal tissue samples, measured on three different Raman instruments across three different locations. Spectra were corrected using system transfer spectral correction algorithms including wavenumber shift (offset) correction, instrument response correction and baseline removal. The results from this study indicate that the combined correction methods do minimize the instrument and sample quality variations within and between the instrument sites. However, more tissue samples of varying pathology states and greater tissue area coverage (per sample) are needed to properly assess the ability of Raman spectroscopy and system transferability algorithms over multiple instrument sites.