ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: In discussion on application of "National Health Promotion Toward 21st Century in Japan" in Kanagawa prefecture, it was noted that the age-adjusted mortality rate of death from ischemic heart disease in this part of Japan was higher than that for the whole nation in 1996. To facilitate development of a strategy for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD), the present study was conducted to predict 2-yr incidence of CHD and decrease with simulations assuming improvement in CHD risk factors. METHODS: Using CHD risk prediction algorithm; the Weibull accelerated failure regression model based on the Framingham Heart Study, a 2-yr incidence of CHD was predicted for 1652 residents (515 male, 1137 female) on the basis of results of a health check up in 1998. We then estimated the probable decrease in CHD recalculated assuming decrease in total cholesterol (TC), increase in HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C), decrease in systolic blood pressure (SBP), or quitting the smoking habit. RESULTS: 1. The 2-yr probability of developing CHD for men free of heart disease was 2.79 +/- 2.17%, and that for men who had heart disease was 10.25 +/- 2.17%. The 2-yr probability for women free of heart disease was 16.80 +/- 14.40%, and that for women who had heart disease was 3.66 +/- 1.09%. As the reported probability of developing CHD in the U.S.A. is remarkably higher than in Japan, the fact that the present model was based on American data explains why these predicted probabilities are higher than values reported from Japanese cohort studies. 2. For men free of heart disease, a strategy for high risk case such as a decrease in TC and an increase in HDL-C, or quitting the smoking habit, was more effective than a population-based strategy. For women free of heart disease, the population-based strategy was more effective. 3. Women more than 60-yrs old who had a high 2-yr probability of developing CHD were divided into three groups; high, middle, and low risk. The mean body weight, mean body mass index, mean diastolic blood pressure, and mean blood glucose in the high risk group were significantly higher than the values in the other groups. Decrease in systolic blood pressure was a more effective strategy for decrease in CHD incidence in the high risk group than in the other groups. CONCLUSIONS: CHD risk prediction of this type may be considered useful for setting target CHD risk factors and for focusing interventions to prevent CHD effectively.
