Risk of recurrence after local resection of T1 rectal cancer: a meta-analysis with meta-regression.

BACKGROUND: T1 rectal cancer (RC) patients are increasingly being treated by local resection alone but uniform surveillance strategies thereafter are lacking. To determine whether different local resection techniques influence the risk of recurrence and cancer-related mortality, a meta-analysis was performed. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted for T1RC patients treated with local surgical resection. The primary outcome was the risk of RC recurrence and RC-related mortality. Pooled estimates were calculated using mixed-effect logistic regression. We also systematically searched and evaluated endoscopically treated T1RC patients in a similar manner. RESULTS: In 2585 unique T1RC patients (86 studies) undergoing local surgical resection, the overall pooled cumulative incidence of recurrence was 9.1% (302 events, 95% CI 7.3-11.4%; I2 = 68.3%). In meta-regression, the recurrence risk was associated with histological risk status (p < 0.005; low-risk 6.6%, 95% CI 4.4-9.7% vs. high-risk 28.2%, 95% CI 19-39.7%) and local surgical resection technique (p < 0.005; TEM/TAMIS 7.7%, 95% CI 5.3-11.0% vs. other local surgical excisions 10.8%, 95% CI 6.7-16.8%). In 641 unique T1RC patients treated with flexible endoscopic excision (16 studies), the risk of recurrence (7.7%, 95% CI 5.2-11.2%), cancer-related mortality (2.3%, 95% CI 1.1-4.9), and cancer-related mortality among patients with recurrence (30.0%, 95% CI 14.7-49.4%) were comparable to outcomes after TEM/TAMIS (risk of recurrence 7.7%, 95% CI 5.3-11.0%, cancer-related mortality 2.8%, 95% CI 1.2-6.2% and among patients with recurrence 35.6%, 95% CI 21.9-51.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with T1 rectal cancer may have a significantly lower recurrence risk after TEM/TAMIS compared to other local surgical resection techniques. After TEM/TAMIS and endoscopic resection the recurrence risk, cancer-related mortality and cancer-related mortality among patients with recurrence were comparable. Recurrence was mainly dependent on histological risk status.

Risk and Time Pattern of Recurrences After Local Endoscopic Resection of T1 Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Growing numbers of patients with T1 CRC are being treated with local endoscopic resection only and as a result, the need for optimization of surveillance strategies for these patients also increases. We aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence and time pattern of CRC recurrences for endoscopically treated patients with T1 CRC. METHODS: Using a systematic literature search in PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane Library (from inception till 15 May 2020), we identified and extracted data from studies describing the cumulative incidence of local or distant CRC recurrence for patients with T1 CRC treated with local endoscopic resection only. Pooled estimates were calculated using mixed-effect logistic regression models. RESULTS: Seventy-one studies with 5167 unique, endoscopically treated patients with T1 CRC were included. The pooled cumulative incidence of any CRC recurrence was 3.3% (209 events; 95% CI, 2.6%-4.3%; I2 = 54.9%), with local and distant recurrences being found at comparable rates (pooled incidences 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively). CRC-related mortality was observed in 42 out of 2519 patients (35 studies; pooled incidence 1.7%, 95% CI, 1.2%-2.2%; I2 = 0%), and the CRC-related mortality rate among patients with recurrence was 40.8% (42/103 patients). The vast majority of recurrences (95.6%) occurred within 72 months of follow-up. Pooled incidences of any CRC recurrence were 7.0% for high-risk T1 CRCs (28 studies; 95% CI, 4.9%-9.9%; I2 = 48.1%) and 0.7% (36 studies; 95% CI, 0.4%-1.2%; I2 = 0%) for low-risk T1 CRCs. CONCLUSIONS: Our meta-analysis provides quantitative outcome measures which are relevant to guidelines on surveillance after local endoscopic resection of T1 CRC.