[The mathematical modelling of the possible morbidity from epidemic louse-borne typhus under current conditions]. / Matematicheskoe modelirovanie vozmozhnoi zabolevaemosti epidemicheskimsypnym tifom v sovremennykh usloviiakh.

On the basis of their earlier formula for modeling the possible development of the epidemic process of louse-borne exanthematous typhus the authors have calculated the probability of the development of such process for high indices (10 -- 12 % of convalescents with louse contamination rate among them reaching 20 -- 40 %) characterizing this process. The number of sources of this infection (primary patients), as well as the rate of increase and scale of louse contamination of the population, are of prime importance for the prognostication of the development of the epidemic.

[The basic principles for the analytical study of epidemic-control measures in the modelling of epidemic processes]. / Osnovnye printsipy analiticheskogo issledovaniia protivoépidemicheskikh meropriiatii pri modelirovanii épidemicheskikh protsessov.

For prognostication of epidemic aerogenic infections with the help of mathematical modeling the authors propose to regard the testing population as a unity of the following streams: susceptible to infection, embraced with emergency vaccination, just vaccinated, protected with the measures of specific or emergency vaccination. Each stream has its own equation which is analogous in its structure to the epidemic dynamics modeling made by O. V. Baroian and L. A. Rvachev, and besides this has correction coefficients which depict the grade of the mobility downtrend due to prophylactic measures. The model built on the bases of the proposed methods makes it possible to determine the level and dynamics of morbidity depending on the volume and efficiency of each sanitary measure described in it.