Fasting glucose: a cardiometabolic indicator for subclinical atherosclerosis on excess weight adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To build a model based on cardiometabolic indicators that allow the identification of overweight adolescents at higher risk of subclinical atherosclerotic disease (SAD). METHODS: Cross-sectional study involving 161 adolescents with a body mass index ≥ +1 z-Score, aged 10 to 19 years. Carotid intima-media complex thickness (IMT) was evaluated using ultrasound to assess subclinical atherosclerotic disease. Cardiometabolic indicators evaluated included nutritional status, central adiposity, blood pressure, lipidic profile, glycemic profile, as well as age and sex. Data was presented using measures of central tendency and dispersion, as well as absolute and relative frequency. The relationship between IMT measurement (outcome variable) and other variables (independent variables) was assessed using Pearson or Spearman correlation, followed by multiple regression modeling with Gamma distribution to analyze predictors of IMT. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS and R software, considering a significance level of 5 %. RESULTS: It was observed that 23.7 % had Carotid thickening, and the prevalence of abnormal fasting glucose was the lowest. Age and fasting glucose were identified as predictors of IMT increase, with IMT decreasing with age by approximately 1 % per year and increasing with glucose by around 0.24 % per mg/dL. CONCLUSION: The adolescent at higher risk is younger with higher fasting glycemia levels.

Performance assessment of spatio-temporal regression kriging with GAMLSS models as trends.

The main objective of this study is to propose different probabilistic models for adjusting the trend component, since it significantly influences the quality of the spatio-temporal interpolation of rainfalls. We used the monthly total precipitation data of the São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) for the period of 31 years, 1989-2019. The SFRB occupies 8% of the whole Brazilian territory, mostly located in the Northeast Brazilian region. For the trend component, we propose the fitted GAMLSS models by comparing different probability distribution families, which in most cases include the characteristics of these data. The results indicate the existence of a spatio-temporal pattern of the residues obtained from the adjustment of the trend with zero adjusted Gamma distribution for the accumulated monthly precipitation. The adjustment revealed a spatial dependence of up to 873 km between the pluviometric stations and temporal autocorrelation of approximately 1.6 months. The methodology used in this study enabled us to create rainfall maps, interpolating unobserved locations in differences years. The projection of these maps to the SFRB is considered extremely important for planning and implementing activities related to water resources across the river basin.

Effects of temperature on the life cycle, expansion, and dispersion of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in three cities in Paraiba, Brazil.

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of dengue and is common throughout tropical and subtropical regions. Its distribution is modulated by environmental factors, such as temperature. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of temperature on the life cycle and expansion of Ae. aegypti populations in the cities of Campina Grande, João Pessoa, and Patos. Samples of Ae. aegypti were collected in the three cities and raised in the laboratory. We assessed the life cycles of the three Ae. aegypti populations under six constant temperatures (16, 22, 28, 33, 36, and 39°C), selected on the basis of historical temperature tendencies of each city. We also used existing climate data to calculate projected temperature increases for all three areas. Our results suggest that Campina Grande, João Pessoa, and Patos will experience, respectively, maximum temperature increases of 0.030°C/year, 0.069°C/year, and 0.061°C/year, and minimum temperature increases of 0.019°C/year, -0.047°C/year, and -0.086°C/year. These projected increases will result in temperatures favorable to the Ae. aegypti life cycle, causing rapid population growth. Therefore, Ae. aegypti populations are likely to expand in the mesoregions represented by these cities.