Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories.

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.

Stop coannihilation in the CMSSM and SubGUT models.

Stop coannihilation may bring the relic density of heavy supersymmetric dark matter particles into the range allowed by cosmology. The efficiency of this process is enhanced by stop-antistop annihilations into the longitudinal (Goldstone) modes of the W and Z bosons, as well as by Sommerfeld enhancement of stop annihilations and the effects of bound states. Since the couplings of the stops to the Goldstone modes are proportional to the trilinear soft supersymmetry-breaking A-terms, these annihilations are enhanced when the A-terms are large. However, the Higgs mass may be reduced below the measured value if the A-terms are too large. Unfortunately, the interpretation of this constraint on the stop coannihilation strip is clouded by differences between the available Higgs mass calculators. For our study, we use as our default calculator FeynHiggs 2.13.0, the most recent publicly available version of this code. Exploring the CMSSM parameter space, we find that along the stop coannihilation strip the masses of the stops are severely split by the large A-terms. This suppresses the Higgs mass drastically for µ and A 0 > 0 , whilst the extent of the stop coannihilation strip is limited for A 0 < 0 and either sign of µ . However, in sub-GUT models, reduced renormalization-group running mitigates the effect of the large A-terms, allowing larger LSP masses to be consistent with the Higgs mass calculation. We give examples where the dark matter particle mass may reach ≳ 8  TeV.

The Constrained NMSSM with right-handed neutrinos.

In this article, we demonstrate that the inclusion of right-handed neutrino superfields in the Next-to-Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (NMSSM) makes it possible to impose universality conditions on the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters at the Grand Unification scale, alleviating many of the problems of the so-called Constrained NMSSM. We have studied the renormalization group equations of this model, showing that right-handed neutrinos greatly contribute to driving the singlet Higgs mass-squared parameter negative, which makes it considerably easier to satisfy the conditions for radiative electroweak symmetry breaking. The new fields also lead to larger values of the Standard Model Higgs mass, thus making it easier to reproduce the measured value. As a consequence, all bounds from colliders and low-energy observables can be fulfilled in wide areas of the parameter space. However, the relic density in these regions is generally too high requiring some form of late entropy production to dilute the density of the lightest supersymmetric particle.

Case for an EeV Gravitino.

We consider the possibility that supersymmetry is broken above the inflationary mass scale and that the only "low" energy remnant of supersymmetry is the gravitino with a mass of the order of the EeV scale. The gravitino in this class of models becomes a candidate for the dark matter of the Universe. To avoid the overproduction of gravitinos from the decays of the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle we argue that the supersymmetric spectrum must lie above the inflationary mass scale (M_{SUSY}>10^{-5}M_{P}∼10^{13} GeV). Since m_{3/2}≃M_{SUSY}^{2}/M_{P}, we expect m_{3/2}≳0.2 EeV. Cosmological constraints then predict a relatively large reheating temperature between 10^{10} and 10^{12} GeV.

Beyond the CMSSM without an accelerator: proton decay and direct dark matter detection.

We consider two potential non-accelerator signatures of generalizations of the well-studied constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM). In one generalization, the universality constraints on soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters are applied at some input scale [Formula: see text]below the grand unification (GUT) scale [Formula: see text], a scenario referred to as 'sub-GUT'. The other generalization we consider is to retain GUT-scale universality for the squark and slepton masses, but to relax universality for the soft supersymmetry-breaking contributions to the masses of the Higgs doublets. As with other CMSSM-like models, the measured Higgs mass requires supersymmetric particle masses near or beyond the TeV scale. Because of these rather heavy sparticle masses, the embedding of these CMSSM-like models in a minimal SU(5) model of grand unification can yield a proton lifetime consistent with current experimental limits, and may be accessible in existing and future proton decay experiments. Another possible signature of these CMSSM-like models is direct detection of supersymmetric dark matter. The direct dark matter scattering rate is typically below the reach of the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment if [Formula: see text] is close to [Formula: see text], but it may lie within its reach if [Formula: see text] GeV. Likewise, generalizing the CMSSM to allow non-universal supersymmetry-breaking contributions to the Higgs offers extensive possibilities for models within reach of the LZ experiment that have long proton lifetimes.

Maximal sfermion flavour violation in super-GUTs.

We consider supersymmetric grand unified theories with soft supersymmetry-breaking scalar masses [Formula: see text] specified above the GUT scale (super-GUTs) and patterns of Yukawa couplings motivated by upper limits on flavour-changing interactions beyond the Standard Model. If the scalar masses are smaller than the gaugino masses [Formula: see text], as is expected in no-scale models, the dominant effects of renormalisation between the input scale and the GUT scale are generally expected to be those due to the gauge couplings, which are proportional to [Formula: see text] and generation independent. In this case, the input scalar masses [Formula: see text] may violate flavour maximally, a scenario we call MaxSFV, and there is no supersymmetric flavour problem. We illustrate this possibility within various specific super-GUT scenarios that are deformations of no-scale gravity.

The extent of the stop coannihilation strip.

Many supersymmetric models such as the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (CMSSM) feature a strip in parameter space where the lightest neutralino [Formula: see text] is identified as the lightest supersymmetric particle, the lighter stop squark [Formula: see text] is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), and the relic [Formula: see text] cold dark matter density is brought into the range allowed by astrophysics and cosmology by coannihilation with the lighter stop squark [Formula: see text] NLSP. We calculate the stop coannihilation strip in the CMSSM, incorporating Sommerfeld enhancement effects, and we explore the relevant phenomenological constraints and phenomenological signatures. In particular, we show that the [Formula: see text] may weigh several TeV, and its lifetime may be in the nanosecond range, features that are more general than the specific CMSSM scenarios that we study in this paper.

No-scale supergravity realization of the Starobinsky model of inflation.

We present a model for cosmological inflation based on a no-scale supergravity sector with an SU(2,1)/SU(2)×U(1) Kähler potential, a single modulus T, and an inflaton superfield Φ described by a Wess-Zumino model with superpotential parameters (µ, λ). When T is fixed, this model yields a scalar spectral index n(s) and a tensor-to-scalar ratio r that are compatible with the Planck measurements for values of λ≃µ/3M(P). For the specific choice λ=µ/3M(P), the model is a no-scale supergravity realization of the R+R2 Starobinsky model.

Gauge coupling unification and nonequilibrium thermal dark matter.

We study a new mechanism for the production of dark matter in the Universe which does not rely on thermal equilibrium. Dark matter is populated from the thermal bath subsequent to inflationary reheating via a massive mediator whose mass is above the reheating scale T(RH). To this end, we consider models with an extra U(1) gauge symmetry broken at some intermediate scale (M(int) ≃ 10(10)-10(12) GeV). We show that not only does the model allow for gauge coupling unification (at a higher scale associated with grand unification) but it can provide a dark matter candidate which is a standard model singlet but charged under the extra U(1). The intermediate scale gauge boson(s) which are predicted in several E6/SO(10) constructions can be a natural mediator between dark matter and the thermal bath. We show that the dark matter abundance, while never having achieved thermal equilibrium, is fixed shortly after the reheating epoch by the relation T(RH)(3)/M(int)(4). As a consequence, we show that the unification of gauge couplings which determines M(int) also fixes the reheating temperature, which can be as high as T(RH) ≃ 10(11) GeV.

Chemical evolution of Mg isotopes versus the time variation of the fine structure constant.

We show that the synthesis of (25,26)Mg at the base of the convective envelope in low-metallicity asymptotic giant branch stars can produce the isotopic ratios needed to explain the low-z subset (with z<1.8) of the many-multiplet data from quasar absorption systems without invoking a time variation of the fine structure constant. This is supported by observations of high abundances of the neutron-rich Mg isotopes in metal-poor globular-cluster stars. We conclude that the quasar absorption spectra may be providing interesting information on the nucleosynthetic history of such systems.