Seroprevalence and determinants of Echinococcus granulosus sensu lato infection among owned dogs in Ibadan, Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Humans acquire cystic echinococcosis through accidental ingestion of Echinococcus granulosus (EG) eggs released into the environment by infected dogs. This study aimed to determine the presence of EG antibodies and their determinants in owned dogs in Ibadan, Nigeria. METHODOLOGY: Sera from 185 dogs on routine visits to veterinary clinics were analysed by indirect ELISA. A questionnaire was administered to dog owners to obtain data on demographics, management, and environmental factors. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, univariate analysis, and logistic regression at α0.05. RESULTS: The median age of the dogs was 20 months (range 2 - 96). The seroprevalence of EG infection was 33.51% (95% CI: 26.71, 40.32%). Low educational level of dog owners (OR: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.3, 5.8); local dog breeds (OR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.7, 6.0); confinement (OR: 0.4; 95% CI: 0.2, 0.8); interaction with other dogs (OR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.4, 7.3); self-dewormed dogs (OR: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.2, 5.9) and never dewormed dogs (OR: 4.39; CI: 1.9, 10.0) were significantly associated with EG seropositivity. Our results suggest also that local breed of dog (AOR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.2, 4.9), self-deworming of dogs (AOR: 2.6; 95% CI: 1.1, 5.9) and the absence of any dog deworming treatment (AOR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.2, 7.1) might be predictive of EG seropositivity. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence of EG infection in owned dogs, especially in those medicated by owners. Deworming practices should be based on the recommendations of a veterinarian to effectively prevent EG transmission from dogs to humans.

A Retrospective Study of the Seroprevalence of Dengue Virus and Chikungunya Virus Exposures in Nigeria, 2010-2018.

Arboviruses are important public health threats in many regions of the world. Nigeria has experienced outbreaks of arboviruses over the past decades, leading to concerns of widespread endemicity, which are frequently misdiagnosed. This study aimed to determine the seroprevalence of dengue virus (DENV) (a flavivirus) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) (an alphavirus) infections in three major population centers of Nigeria. A convenience sample of 701 sera was collected from both healthy and febrile participants between August 2010 and March 2018. Sera were tested for prior exposure to CHIKV virus and DENV using indirect IgG ELISA. Results showed that 54.1% (379/701) of participants were seropositive for anti-DENV antibodies, 41.3% (290/701) were seropositive for anti-CHIKV antibodies, and 20.1% (141/701) had previous exposure to both. The seropositivity for prior CHIKV exposure and prior exposure to DENV and CHIKV was significantly associated with age (CHIKV: OR = 2.7 (95% CI: 1.7-4.3); DENV and CHIKV: OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.2-4.0) for adults compared to participants under 18 years old). Overall, the high seropositivity across all age groups suggests that arboviral infections are prevalent in Nigeria and indicates that surveillance and further epidemiological studies are required to determine the true burden of these infections and the spectrum of diseases associated with these exposures.

Detection of African swine fever virus in pigs in Southwest Nigeria.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Nigeria experienced repeated outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF) in pig herds between 1997 and 2005 in the southwest region of the country. ASF is believed to currently be enzootic in this region. The status of enzootic transmission of ASF virus strain to pigs is; however, unknown. Twenty-three genotypes of the ASF virus based on the p72 gene are found across Africa. This study aimed to identify the current circulating field strain(s) of the ASF virus in Southwest Nigeria and characterized evolutionary trends. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DNA samples were extracted from 144 pooled blood samples obtained from 2012 to 2013 following the manufacturer's instructions. DNA was used for conventional polymerase chain reaction using primers targeting the p72 gene and amplified products sequenced with Sanger's sequencing. Sequences were analyzed for homology and phylogenetic relationships. RESULTS: Eleven of 144 samples (7.6%) showed bands at 950 bp. A new field strain of ASF virus of genotype I that shared ancestry with ASF virus strains or isolates from Spain and Brazil was identified among pig herds. The new strain differs phylogenetically in amino acid composition compared with previously identified ASF virus field strains. CONCLUSION: The currently circulating field strain of ASF virus suggests a mutation responsible for decreased morbidity and mortality recorded in sporadic cases.

Serological Detection of Flavivirus Infections in Saudi Baboons.

To evaluate the risk to public health from Flaviviruses in the southwest region of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we screened as sentinels, 50 commensal hamadryas baboons located at a peri-domestic site on the outskirts of Ta'if City in February 2013. Of the baboons, 12% [95% CI 5, 24], 0% [95% CI 0, 7] and 10% [95% CI 3, 22] were seropositive in a pan-Flavivirus ELISA (anti-pan-WNV 1-2, Usutu, Zika), Dengue virus 1-4 ELISA (anti-DENV 1-4) and WNV-1 PRNT, respectively, indicating Flavirus exposures of the subjects with possible risk to public health in the area.

Prioritization of zoonotic diseases of public health significance in Nigeria using the one-health approach.

Nigeria, with a population of over 190 million people, is rated among the 10 countries with the highest burden of infectious and zoonotic diseases globally. In Nigeria, there exist a sub-optimal surveillance system to monitor and track priority zoonoses. We therefore conducted a prioritization of zoonotic diseases for the first time in Nigeria to guide prevention and control efforts. Towards this, a two-day in-country consultative meeting involving experts from the human, animal, and environmental health backgrounds prioritized zoonotic diseases using a modified semi-quantitative One Health Zoonotic Disease Prioritization tool in July 2017. Overall, 36 of 52 previously selected zoonoses were identified for prioritization. Five selection criteria were used to arrive at the relative importance of prioritized diseases based on their weighted score. Overall, this zoonotic disease prioritization process marks the first major step of bringing together experts from the human-animal-environment health spectrum in Nigeria. Importantly, the country ranked rabies, avian influenza, Ebola Virus Disease, swine influenza and anthrax as the first five priority zoonoses in Nigeria. Finally, this One Health approach to prioritizing important zoonoses is a step that will help to guide future tracking and monitoring of diseases of grave public health importance in Nigeria.

Baseline epidemiology and associated dog ecology study towards stepwise elimination of rabies in Kwara state, Nigeria.

Understanding domestic dog population dynamics and ecology is crucial to any effective rabies control program. This study was conducted as part of the baseline epidemiological studies necessary for the establishment of the Kwara Rabies Rapid Alert System "KRRAS". This study aimed to determine the dog population structure of Kwara State by assessing the dog ownership, vaccination status, and prevalence of dog bites. A total of 1460 questionnaires were administered to respondents in the three senatorial zones of the state using Open Data Kit (ODK) between June 2019 to January 2020. Of the 1460 households surveyed, 293 (20.1 %) owned at least one dog with an average of 2.25 dogs per household. The male to female ratio was 1.9:1 and 79.3 % (n = 523/659) of the owned dogs were local breeds. A total of 785 dogs was enumerated (659 dogs from 293 households and 126 free-roaming dogs) and 7811 persons which resulted in a dog-human ratio of 1:9.95. The estimated dog population is 376,789 (95 % CI: 343,700 - 379,878). Only 31 % (n = 204/659) of households vaccinated their dogs against rabies. The prevalence of dog-bite was 13 % (n = 193/1460) of which only 27 % of the victims (n = 61/225) received post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). Dog ownership was significantly impacted by the ethnicity of respondents. Hausa (OR: 3.76; 95 % CI: 1.15-12.4; p < 0.001) and Nupe (OR: 4.48; 95 % CI: 1.77-11.33; p < 0.001) respondents owned dogs than Yoruba respondents. The rabies vaccination status of owned dogs was significantly impacted by the level of education (OR: 5.03; 95 % CI: 1.50-16.83; p < 0.001); history of previous dog bite incidents (OR: 1.74; 95 % CI: 0.95-3.17; p < 0.001); the breed of the dog with exotic dogs being more vaccinated (OR: 2.79: 95 % 0.64-12.05; p < 0.001). Similarly, Male dogs (OR: 1.49, 95 % 1.03-2.86; p < 0.001) and partially confined dogs (OR: 1.09, 95 % 0.45-2.11, p < 0.001) were found to be vaccinated against rabies. The results of the study showed low dog vaccination coverage, and high number of free roaming dogs. Hence, a threat to public health. The low dog vaccination coverage is below the 70-80 % target recommended for herd immunity by the World Health Organization.

Dog rabies control in West and Central Africa: A review.

Rabies is a neglected but preventable zoonotic disease that predominantly affects the most vulnerable populations living in remote rural areas of resource-limited countries. To date, every country on the African mainland is considered endemic for dog-mediated rabies with an estimated 21'500 human rabies deaths occurring each year. In 2018, the United Against Rabies collaboration launched the Global Strategic Plan to end human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030. The epidemiology of rabies from most Western and Central African countries remains poorly defined, making it difficult to assess the overall rabies situation and progress towards the 2030 goal. In this review, we attempt to provide an overview of the current rabies situation in 22 West and Central African countries based on published scientific literature and information obtained from rabies focal points. To this end, information was collected on i) established surveillance, ii) diagnostic capacity, iii) post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) availability and coverage, iv) dog population estimates, v) dog vaccination campaigns, vi) animal and human health communication (One Health), vii) molecular studies, viii) Knowledge, Attitude and Practices (KAP), ix) cost estimates and x) national control strategies. Although rabies is a notifiable disease in the majority of the studied countries, national surveillance systems do not adequately capture the disease. A general lack of rabies diagnostic capacity has an additional negative impact on rabies surveillance and attempts to estimate rabies burden. Recurrent shortages of human rabies vaccine are reported by all of the countries, with vaccine availability usually limited to major urban centers but no country has yet adopted the new WHO-recommended 1-week intradermal vaccination regimen. Most countries carry out subsidized mass dog vaccination campaigns on World Rabies Day. Such activities are indispensable to keep rabies in the public consciousness but are not of the scale and intensity that is required to eliminate rabies from the dog population. Countries will need to scale up the intensity of their campaigns, if they are to progress towards the 2030 goal. But more than half of the countries do not yet have reliable figures on their dog populations. Only two countries reached stage 2 on the Stepwise Approach towards Rabies Elimination ladder - indicating that their national governments have truly prioritized rabies elimination and are thus providing the necessary support and political buy-in required to achieve success. In summary, the sub-region of West and Central Africa seems to be divided into countries which have accepted the challenge to eliminate rabies with governments committed to pushing forward rabies elimination, while other countries have achieved some progress, but elimination efforts remain stuck due to lacking government commitment and financial constraints. The possibility to meet the 2030 goal without international solidarity is low, because more than two-thirds of the countries rank in the low human development group (HDI ≤ 152). Leading countries should act as role models, sharing their experiences and capacities so that no country is left behind. Unified and with international support it is possible to reach the common goal of zero human rabies deaths by 2030.

Improving dog bite victim survey and estimation of annual human deaths due to suspected rabies cases in three selected Liberian cities and environs, 2008-2017.

Rabies remains a public health challenge of unknown magnitude in Liberia in spite of the goal of ensuring that no human in the country dies of rabies by 2030. The annual prevalence of Dog Bite Victims (DBVs) and true load of Annual Human Deaths (AHDs) due to rabies were not known. We investigated three selected cities of Liberia for annual prevalence of DBVs and true load of AHD due to suspected rabies, using 10-year retrospective record, 2008-2017 obtained from Buchanan, Gbarnga, and Voinjama, three socio-economically important cities in post-conflict Liberia. Data were sourced at County Reference Hospitals and at the Liberia National Institute of Health for these cities and their local environs. In addition, household questionnaire survey was used to identify and audit data quality for unreported DBVs, and treatment received from traditional caregivers. The proportion was used to audit the 10-year data on unreported DBVs in the cities. Descriptive statistics was used to summarize annual DBVs over the 10-year period in the three cities, respectively. A standardized clinical decision tree model was used to estimate AHDs due to suspected rabies. Based on questionnaire survey, 140/365, 148/375 and 146/350 DBVs did not visit any orthodox health facility in Buchanan, Gbarnga and Voinjama cities, respectively in 2014. An estimated total of 559 DBVs died of suspected rabies in the three cities and their environs during the 10-year period. Mean yearly prevalence of DBVs was 179±106.82, 393±257.85 and 76.9±38.11 per 100,000 population, while mean AHDs due to suspected rabies was 14.3±8.47, 35.5±23.25, and 6.1±3.21 per 100,000 population in Buchanan, Gbarnga, and Voinjama cities, respectively. The present findings provide annual prevalence of suspected rabies cases, corrected for under-reporting in three selected cities of Liberia. The findings would be useful in planning for stepwise actions towards rabies elimination, ensuring that no human dies of rabies in Liberia by 2030.

Bat and Lyssavirus Exposure among Humans in Area that Celebrates Bat Festival, Nigeria, 2010 and 2013.

Using questionnaires and serologic testing, we evaluated bat and lyssavirus exposure among persons in an area of Nigeria that celebrates a bat festival. Bats from festival caves underwent serologic testing for phylogroup II lyssaviruses (Lagos bat virus, Shimoni bat virus, Mokola virus). The enrolled households consisted of 2,112 persons, among whom 213 (10%) were reported to have ever had bat contact (having touched a bat, having been bitten by a bat, or having been scratched by a bat) and 52 (2%) to have ever been bitten by a bat. Of 203 participants with bat contact, 3 (1%) had received rabies vaccination. No participant had neutralizing antibodies to phylogroup II lyssaviruses, but >50% of bats had neutralizing antibodies to these lyssaviruses. Even though we found no evidence of phylogroup II lyssavirus exposure among humans, persons interacting with bats in the area could benefit from practicing bat-related health precautions.

Detection of Antibody and Antigen for Lassa Virus Nucleoprotein in Monkeys from Southern Nigeria.

Lassa fever is a deadly viral haemorrhagic fever caused by Lassa Virus (LASV). Rodents, especially, Mystomys natalensis, are the known reservoirs of LASV and humans are the defined hosts. Monkeys share many illnesses with humans and experimental LASV infections in monkeys are fatal but natural LASV infection of monkeys has not been reported. Serum samples obtained between August 2015 and December 2017 from 62 monkeys belonging to six species in Southern Nigeria were tested for LASV as part of an ongoing surveillance of monkeys in the region for zoonotic pathogens. Commercially available Recombinant LASV (ReLASV) Pan-Lassa enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) test kits (Zalgen Labs, Germantown, MD, USA) were used to detect antibodies (IgG and IgM) and antigen specific for LASV nucleoprotein in the sera. Lassa-fever-specific IgG and IgM, and antigen specific for LASV nucleoprotein were detected in 5/62, 0/62, and 1/62 samples, respectively. The presence of LASV-specific antibodies in the sera suggests natural exposure to the virus, while the presence of LASV antigen may mean that monkeys are carriers of the virus. There is a need to broaden Lassa fever surveillance to include nonhuman primates (NHPs) for their probable role in the epidemiology of the disease.HIGHLIGHTS.• Rodents are the natural reservoirs of Lassa fever virus (LASV) and humans are the defined hosts.• Experimental LASV infections in non-human primates (NHP) are fatal but natural infection of NHP with the virus have not been reported.• We detected antigen and antibody specific for LASV in free-living Monkeys from southern Nigeria which implies that monkeys in the region are naturally exposed to LASV and are probable carriers of the virus.

Syndromic survey and molecular analysis of influenza viruses at the human-swine interface in two West African cosmopolitan cities suggest the possibility of bidirectional interspecies transmission.

Influenza viruses are frequently transmitted between pigs and their handlers, and among pig handlers. However, reports on socio-environmental variables as potential risk factors associated with transmission of influenza in West African swine production facilities are very scarce. Syndromic survey for influenza was therefore conducted in Ibadan, Nigeria, and Kumasi, Ghana, in order to identify and elucidate selected socio-environmental variables that may contribute to the occurrence and distribution of influenza-like illness (ILI) among swine industry workers. In addition, molecular analyses were conducted to elucidate the nature of influenza viruses circulating at the human-swine interface in these cities and better understand the dynamics of their transmission. Influenza viruses were detected by type-specific and subtype-specific RT-PCR. Sequencing and phylogenetic analyses were carried out. Socio-environmental variables were tested by both univariable and multivariable regression methods for significance at p < 0.05. Three risk factors for ILI were identified in each city. These included "frequency of visit of pig handler to pig pen or lairage" (Ibadan: risk ratio [RR] = 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.36-1.79, p = 0.02; Kumasi: RR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.11-1.71, p = 0.01) and "pig handler's awareness about biosecurity measures" (Ibadan: RR = 7.09, 95% CI = 2.36-21.32, p < 0.001; Kumasi: RR = 4.84, 95% CI = 1.98-11.80, p < 0.001). Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, with M genes closely related to those which circulated among pigs in the two cities during the same period, were detected among Nigerian and Ghanaian pig industry workers. These findings suggest the possibility of bidirectional transmission of influenza at the human-swine interface in these cities and underscore the need for more extensive molecular studies. Risk factors identified may assist in the control of human-to-human and human-to-swine transmission of influenza in the West African swine industry.

Comparative non-metric and morphometric analyses of rats at residential halls of the University of Benin campus, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: In mammals and across rat species, the variation in conformation is markedly observed in the head and the variation in the shape of the head is mostly determined by the shape of the skull. Hence comparative topographic analysis and morphometry is a veritable tool in precise categorization of peri-domestic rats and species identification. METHODS: Killed rodents around residential dwellings of students on campus were collected and measurements taken of external morphology. Thirty-one external head and corporal parameters; and 40 cranial measurements respectively were obtained. Topographic features and specific anatomical landmarks measured were matched using congruent anatomical landmarks and compared to referenced standard measurements. RESULTS: External morphometry suggests that all retrieved samples were more closely related to the species Rattus rattus. However, craniodental analysis of captured rats reveals variations from the mean of typical R. rattus. In comparison with Mastomys natalensis, the mean averages of the rat species were perceptibly different for only two of the parameters viz palatine fissure length (PL) (p=0.039) and distance between interparietal bone (DP) (p=0.06). In contrast, the mean of whole length of skull (WL), length of diastema (PI), length of nasal bone (NL), length of frontal bone (LF) and occipital width (OH) were significantly different from that of R. rattus with p values of 0.047, 0.036, 0.048, 0.032 and 0.034 respectively. CONCLUSION: This study focuses on peridomestic rat's identification within the University campus based on morphometry, providing unique landmarks for differentiation between Mastomys, Mus, Rattus and other rat species with emphasis on the need for more comprehensive investigation, categorization and morphometric profiling of rat population in Nigeria. Metric data generated for rat profiling in Nigeria is pivotal for a more comprehensive strategy for prevention of Lassa fever.

Time series analysis and mortality model of dog bite victims presented for treatment at a referral clinic for rabies exposure in Monrovia, Liberia, 2010-2013.

We developed time trend model, determined treatment outcome and estimated annual human deaths among dog bite victims (DBVs) from 2010 to 2013 in Monrovia, Liberia. Data obtained from clinic records included victim's age, gender and site of bite marks, site name of residence of rabies-exposed patients, promptness of care sought, initial treatment and post-exposure-prophylaxis (PEP) compliance. We computed DBV time-trend plot, seasonal index and year 2014 case forecast. Associated annual human death (AHD) was estimated using a standardized decision tree model. Of the 775 DBVs enlisted, care seeking time was within 24h of injury in 328 (42.32%) DBVs. Victim's residential location, site of bite mark, and time dependent variables were significantly associated with treatment outcome (p< 0.05). The equation X^t=28.278-0.365t models the trend of DBVs. The high (n=705, 90.97%) defaulted PEP and average 155 AHD from rabies implied urgent need for policy formulation on national programme for rabies prevention in Liberia.

Spatial pattern of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotypes in North Central Nigeria.

AIM: This study aimed to determine the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotypes circulating, the prevalence of FMDV serotypes, and the spatial distribution of FMDV among sedentary and pastoral cattle herds in the North-Central Nigeria. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was undertaken, during which a total of 155 sera that tested positive for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) 3ABC non-structural protein antibodies were selected and screened for FMD structural protein serotypes, A, O, SAT 1, and SAT 2 using a solid-phase competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Epithelial tissue specimens were collected during outbreak investigations which were tested for FMD using an antigen capture ELISA for serotype A, O, SAT 1, and SAT 2. RESULTS: An overall serotype-specific prevalence of 79.35 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 72.4-85.18) was recorded for serotype O, 65.2% (95% CI: 57.41-72.3) for serotype A, 52.9% (95% CI: 45.03-60.67) for SAT 2, and 33.55% (95% CI: 26.45-41.26) for SAT 1. Evidence of exposure to multiple FMDV serotypes showed that 12.26% of the sera samples had antibodies against four serotypes circulating, 30.97% had antibodies against three serotypes circulating, 22.58% had antibodies against two serotypes, and 17% showed exposure to only one serotype. Clinical specimens (epithelial tissue) collected during outbreak investigations showed that serotype O has the highest proportion of 50% with serotype A - 25%; SAT 2 - 20.8%; and SAT 1 - 4.1%. CONCLUSION: The study detected diffuse and co-circulation of serotypes A, O, SAT 1, and SAT 2 within the study area, and hence the need for the appropriately matched multivalent vaccine is strongly advocated for FMD control in Nigeria.

Detection of pandemic strain of influenza virus (A/H1N1/pdm09) in pigs, West Africa: implications and considerations for prevention of future influenza pandemics at the source.

BACKGROUND: Human and animal influenza are inextricably linked. In particular, the pig is uniquely important as a mixing vessel for genetic reassortment of influenza viruses, leading to emergence of novel strains which may cause human pandemics. Significant reduction in transmission of influenza viruses from humans, and other animals, to swine may therefore be crucial for preventing future influenza pandemics. This study investigated the presence of the 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus, A(H1N1)pdm09, in Nigerian and Ghanaian pigs, and also determined levels of acceptance of preventive measures which could significantly reduce the transmission of this virus from humans to pigs. METHODS: Nasal swab specimens from 125 pigs in Ibadan, Nigeria, and Kumasi, Ghana, were tested for the presence of influenza A/California/04/2009 (H1N1) by quantitative antigen-detection ELISA. A semi-structured questionnaire was also administered to pig handlers in the two study areas and responses were analyzed to evaluate their compliance with seven measures for preventing human-to-swine transmission of influenza viruses. RESULTS: The virus was detected among pigs in the two cities, with prevalence of 8% in Ibadan and 10% in Kumasi. Levels of compliance of pig handlers with relevant preventive measures were also found to be mostly below 25 and 40% in Ibadan and Kumasi, respectively. CONCLUSION: Detection of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 among pigs tested suggests the possibility of human-to-swine transmission, which may proceed even more rapidly, considering the very poor acceptance of basic preventive measures observed in this study. This is also the first report on detection of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Ghanaian pigs. We recommend improvement on personal hygiene among pig handlers, enforcement of sick leave particularly during the first few days of influenza-like illnesses, and training of pig handlers on recognition of influenza-like signs in humans and pigs. These could be crucial for prevention of future influenza pandemics.

Sero-prevalence and risk factors associated with African swine fever on pig farms in southwest Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: African swine fever (ASF) is one of the major setbacks to development of the pig industry in Nigeria. It is enzootic in southwest Nigeria. We determined the sero-prevalence and factors associated with ASF among-herd seropositivity in 144 pig farms in six States from southwest Nigeria during the dry and rainy seasons using indirect Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) for ASF IgG antibodies. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on demography, environmental and management factors. We performed descriptive statistics, and univariate and multivariable analyses to determine the among-herd sero-prevalence of ASF and its associated factors. RESULTS: The overall herd sero-prevalence of ASF was 28% (95% Confidence interval (95% CI) 21-36); it was significantly higher (P <0.05) in the dry season (54%; 95% CI 37-70) than the rainy season (18%; 95% CI 11-27). In the univariate analysis, having a quarantine/ isolation unit within 100 m radius of a regular pig pen (OR = 3.3; 95% CI 1.3-8.9), external source of replacement stock (OR = 3.2; 95% CI 1.3-8.3) and dry season (OR = 5.3; 95% CI 2.2-12.7) were risk factors for ASF among-herd seropositivity. In the multivariable logistic regression, there was interaction between season and herd size. Our final model included season, source of replacement stock, herd size and interaction between herd size and season. Herds with an external source of replacement always had higher ASF sero-prevalence compared with herds with an internal source. The herd size effect varied between seasons. CONCLUSIONS: The ASF herd level sero-prevalence in southwest Nigeria was higher in pig herds with an external source of replacement stock and in the dry season. The effect of season of the year the samples were taken on ASF seropositivity was modified by herd size. We encourage strict compliance with biosecurity measures, especially using an internal source of replacement stock and measures that minimize movement on pig farms in southwest Nigeria, in order to enhance ASF free farms.

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P < 0.05) and best performance compared to linear and exponential models. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict LF cases for a prospective 5 years period, covering 2013-2017. RESULTS: The two-stage predictive model of LF case-pattern between 2013 and 2017 was characterized by a prospective decline within the South-coast County of Grand Bassa over the forecast period and an upward case-trend within the Northern County of Nimba. Case specific exponential increase was predicted for the first 2 years (2013-2014) with a geometric increase over the next 3 years (2015-2017) in Nimba County. CONCLUSION: This paper describes a translational application of the space-time distribution pattern of LF epidemics, 2008-2012 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

Preventive and social cost implications of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak on selected organizations in Lagos state, Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: As Ebola virus disease (EVD) continues to pose public health challenge in West Africa, with attending fears and socio-economic implications in the current epidemic challenges. It is compelling to estimate the social and preventive costs of EVD containment in a Nigerian city. Hence, this study was to determine the social and preventive cost implications of EVD among selected public institutions in Lagos, Nigeria, from July to December, 2014. METHODS: Questionnaires and key-informants interview were administered to respondents and administrators of selected hospitals, hotels and schools in Eti-Osa Local Government Area of Lagos State. Knowledge of disease transmission, mortality and protocols for prevention, including cost of specific preventive measures adopted against EVD were elicited from respondents. Descriptive statistics and categorical analysis were used to summarize and estimate social and preventive costs incurred by respective institutions. RESULTS: An estimated five million, nineteen thousand, three hundred and seventy-nine Naira and eighty kobo (N5,019,379.80) only was observed as direct and social cost implication of EVD prevention. This amount translated into a conservative estimate of one billion, twenty-seven million, ninety-four thousand, seven hundred and fifty-six Naira (N1,027,094,756.10) for a total of four thousand schools, two hundred and fifty-three hospitals and one thousand, four hundred and fifty one hotels in Lagos during the period (July 20-November 20, 2014). CONCLUSION: The high cost of prevention of EVD within the short time-frame indicated high importance attached to a preventive policy against highly pathogenic zoonotic disease in Nigeria.