Penalized Regression Methods With Modified Cross-Validation and Bootstrap Tuning Produce Better Prediction Models.

Risk prediction models fitted using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) are often overfitted resulting in predictions that are too extreme and a calibration slope (CS) less than 1. Penalized methods, such as Ridge and Lasso, have been suggested as a solution to this problem as they tend to shrink regression coefficients toward zero, resulting in predictions closer to the average. The amount of shrinkage is regulated by a tuning parameter, λ , $\lambda ,$ commonly selected via cross-validation ("standard tuning"). Though penalized methods have been found to improve calibration on average, they often over-shrink and exhibit large variability in the selected λ $\lambda $ and hence the CS. This is a problem, particularly for small sample sizes, but also when using sample sizes recommended to control overfitting. We consider whether these problems are partly due to selecting λ $\lambda $ using cross-validation with "training" datasets of reduced size compared to the original development sample, resulting in an over-estimation of λ $\lambda $ and, hence, excessive shrinkage. We propose a modified cross-validation tuning method ("modified tuning"), which estimates λ $\lambda $ from a pseudo-development dataset obtained via bootstrapping from the original dataset, albeit of larger size, such that the resulting cross-validation training datasets are of the same size as the original dataset. Modified tuning can be easily implemented in standard software and is closely related to bootstrap selection of the tuning parameter ("bootstrap tuning"). We evaluated modified and bootstrap tuning for Ridge and Lasso in simulated and real data using recommended sample sizes, and sizes slightly lower and higher. They substantially improved the selection of λ $\lambda $ , resulting in improved CS compared to the standard tuning method. They also improved predictions compared to MLE.

Adult-onset hearing loss and incident cognitive impairment and dementia - A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: We comprehensively summarized the cohort evidence to date on adult-onset hearing loss as risk factor for incident cognitive impairment and dementia, and examined the evidence for dose-response, risk for various dementia subtypes, and other moderators. Previous meta-analyses were less comprehensive. METHODS: We included cohort studies with participants without dementia and with hearing assessments at baseline, minimum 2 years follow-up and incident cognitive outcomes. We used random-effect models and subgroup and meta-regression on moderator analyses. RESULTS: We identified fifty studies (N=1,548,754). Hearing loss (yes/no) was associated with incident dementia risk (HR=1.35 [95% CI = 1.26 - 1.45), mild cognitive impairment (MCI HR=1.29 [95% CI = 1.11 - 1.50]), cognitive decline not specified as MCI or dementia (HR=1.29 [95% CI = 1.17 - 1.42]), and Alzheimer's disease dementia (ADD, HR=1.56 [95% CI = 1.30 - 1.87]), but not with vascular dementia (HR, 1.30 [95% CI = 0.83 - 2.05]). Each 10-decibel worsening of hearing was associated with a 16% increase in dementia risk (95% CI = 1.07 - 1.27). The effect of hearing loss did not vary across potential moderators. CONCLUSIONS: Cohort studies consistently support that adult-onset hearing loss increases the risk of incident cognitive decline, dementia, MCI, and ADD.

Feasibility randomised controlled trial of face-to-face counselling and mobile phone messages compared to usual care for smokeless tobacco cessation in Indian primary care: Project CERTAIN.

INTRODUCTION: Smokeless tobacco (SLT) use in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has adverse health consequences. We hypothesize that it is feasible to test an intervention of mobile phone messages and face-to-face counselling session for SLT cessation in India. METHODS: We conducted an exploratory, individual parallel two group, randomised controlled trial (RCT), with baseline -and end-point (three months from randomisation) assessments in urban primary health centres in Odisha, India. A total of 250 current (i.e., users in the last three months) SLT users or dual users (i.e., smokers and SLT users) were recruited to the trial (125 in each group). Participants were randomised to either routine care, face-to-face counselling, and reminder mobile messages or routine care only. The primary outcomes were to assess the feasibility of running a full RCT including recruitment, compliance, and retention. RESULTS: A total seven (77.8%) out of nine primary care centres took part in the trial. Out of the 315 SLT users invited to participate, 250 provided consent and were randomised [79.4% (95% CI: 74.5, 83.7)]. Out of the 250 randomised SLT users, 238 [95% (95% CI: 91.8, 97.5)] were followed up at three months (117 in the intervention group and 121 in the control group). Of the participants in the intervention group, 74 (63.8%) reported that they received the mobile messages. CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory trial demonstrated the feasibility of delivering and evaluating an intervention of mobile phone messages and face-to-face counselling for SLT users in Indian primary care in a full randomised trial. IMPLICATIONS: This study found that combining mobile messages with face-to-face counselling for smokeless tobacco users visiting primary health care settings in India is feasible in terms of recruitment of users, compliance with the intervention, and retention of study participants within the trial.The biochemically verified smokeless tobacco abstinence rate was higher in the intervention group compared with the control groupThere was poor agreement between self-reported tobacco cessation and the measured salivary cotinine in smokeless tobacco users.The findings support the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention signalling the need for a larger clinical trial to test effectiveness of the intervention.

Assessing the clinical and cost-effectiveness of inpatient mental health rehabilitation services provided by the NHS and independent sector (ACER): protocol.

BACKGROUND: Mental health rehabilitation services provide specialist treatment to people with particularly severe and complex problems. In 2018, the Care Quality Commission reported that over half the 4,400 mental health inpatient rehabilitation beds in England were provided by the independent sector. They raised concerns that the length of stay and cost of independent sector care was double that of the NHS and that their services tended to be provided much further from people's homes. However, there has been no research comparing the two sectors and we therefore do not know if these concerns are justified. The ACER Study (Assessing the Clinical and cost-Effectiveness of inpatient mental health Rehabilitation services provided by the NHS and independent sector) is a national programme of research in England, funded from 2021 to 2026, that aims to investigate differences in inpatient mental health rehabilitation provided by the NHS and independent sector in terms of: patient characteristics; service quality; patient, carer and staff experiences; clinical and cost effectiveness. METHODS: ACER comprises a:1) detailed survey of NHS and independent sector inpatient mental health rehabilitation services across England; 2) qualitative investigation of patient, family, staff and commissioners' experiences of the two sectors; 3) cohort study comparing clinical outcomes in the two sectors over 18 months; 4) comprehensive national comparison of inpatient service use in the two sectors, using instrumental variable analysis of routinely collected healthcare data over 18 months; 5) health economic evaluation of the relative cost-effectiveness of the two sectors. In Components 3 and 4, our primary outcome is 'successful rehabilitation' defined as a) being discharged from the inpatient rehabilitation unit without readmission and b) inpatient service use over the 18 months. DISCUSSION: The ACER study will deliver the first empirical comparison of the clinical and cost-effectiveness of NHS and independent sector inpatient mental health rehabilitation services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17381762 retrospectively registered.

The Role of Multiparametric MRI and MRI-targeted Biopsy in the Diagnosis of Radiorecurrent Prostate Cancer: An Analysis from the FORECAST Trial.

BACKGROUND: The role of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for detecting recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate MRI and MRI-targeted biopsies for detecting intraprostatic cancer recurrence and planning for salvage focal ablation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: FOcal RECurrent Assessment and Salvage Treatment (FORECAST; NCT01883128) was a prospective cohort diagnostic study that recruited 181 patients with suspected radiorecurrence at six UK centres (2014 to 2018); 144 were included here. INTERVENTION: All patients underwent MRI with 5 mm transperineal template mapping biopsies; 84 had additional MRI-targeted biopsies. MRI scans with Likert scores of 3 to 5 were deemed suspicious. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: First, the diagnostic accuracy of MRI was calculated. Second, the pathological characteristics of MRI-detected and MRI-undetected tumours were compared using the Wilcoxon rank sum test and chi-square test for trend. Third, four biopsy strategies involving an MRI-targeted biopsy alone and with systematic biopsies of one to two other quadrants were studied. Fisher's exact test was used to compare MRI-targeted biopsy alone with the best other strategy for the number of patients with missed cancer and the number of patients with cancer harbouring additional tumours in unsampled quadrants. Analyses focused primarily on detecting cancer of any grade or length. Last, eligibility for focal therapy was evaluated for men with localised (≤T3bN0M0) radiorecurrent disease. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of 144 patients, 111 (77%) had cancer detected on biopsy. MRI sensitivity and specificity at the patient level were 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92 to 0.99) and 0.21 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.35), respectively. At the prostate quadrant level, 258/576 (45%) quadrants had cancer detected on biopsy. Sensitivity and specificity were 0.66 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.73) and 0.54 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.62), respectively. At the quadrant level, compared with MRI-undetected tumours, MRI-detected tumours had longer maximum cancer core length (median difference 3 mm [7 vs 4 mm]; 95% CI 1 to 4 mm, p < 0.001) and a higher grade group (p = 0.002). Of the 84 men who also underwent an MRI-targeted biopsy, 73 (87%) had recurrent cancer diagnosed. Performing an MRI-targeted biopsy alone missed cancer in 5/73 patients (7%; 95% CI 3 to 15%); with additional systematic sampling of the other ipsilateral and contralateral posterior quadrants (strategy 4), 2/73 patients (3%; 95% CI 0 to 10%) would have had cancer missed (difference 4%; 95% CI -3 to 11%, p = 0.4). If an MRI-targeted biopsy alone was performed, 43/73 (59%; 95% CI 47 to 69%) patients with cancer would have harboured undetected additional tumours in unsampled quadrants. This reduced but only to 7/73 patients (10%; 95% CI 4 to 19%) with strategy 4 (difference 49%; 95% CI 36 to 62%, p < 0.0001). Of 73 patients, 43 (59%; 95% CI 47 to 69%) had localised radiorecurrent cancer suitable for a form of focal ablation. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy, MRI and MRI-targeted biopsy, with or without perilesional sampling, will diagnose cancer in the majority where present. MRI-undetected cancers, defined as Likert scores of 1 to 2, were found to be smaller and of lower grade. However, if salvage focal ablation is planned, an MRI-targeted biopsy alone is insufficient for prostate mapping; approximately three of five patients with recurrent cancer found on an MRI-targeted biopsy alone harboured further tumours in unsampled quadrants. Systematic sampling of the whole gland should be considered in addition to an MRI-targeted biopsy to capture both MRI-detected and MRI-undetected disease. PATIENT SUMMARY: After radiotherapy, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is accurate for detecting recurrent prostate cancer, with missed cancer being smaller and of lower grade. Targeting a biopsy to suspicious areas on MRI results in a diagnosis of cancer in most patients. However, for every five men who have recurrent cancer, this targeted approach would miss cancers elsewhere in the prostate in three of these men. If further focal treatment of the prostate is planned, random biopsies covering the whole prostate in addition to targeted biopsies should be considered so that tumours are not missed.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy sudden cardiac death risk algorithms for implantable cardioverter defibrillator decision-making.

AIMS: To conduct a contemporary cost-effectiveness analysis examining the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for primary prevention in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). METHODS: A discrete-time Markov model was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of different ICD decision-making rules for implantation. Several scenarios were investigated including the reference scenario of implantation rates according to observed real world practice. A 12-year time horizon with an annual cycle length was used. Transition probabilities used in the model were obtained using Bayesian analysis. The study has been reported according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. RESULTS: Using a 5-year SCD risk threshold of 6% was cheaper than current practice and has marginally better total quality adjusted life years (QALYs). This is the most cost-effective of the options considered, with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of £834 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses highlighted that this decision is largely driven by what health related quality of life (HRQL) is attributed to ICD patients and time horizon. CONCLUSION: We present a timely new perspective on HCM ICD cost-effectiveness, using methods reflecting real-world practice. While we have shown that a 6% 5-year SCD risk cut-off provides the best cohort stratification to aid ICD decision-making, this will also be influenced by the particular values of costs and HRQL for subgroups or at a local level. The process of explicitly demonstrating the main factors which drive conclusions from such an analysis will help to inform shared decision-making in this complex area for all stakeholders concerned.

Safety and Efficacy of Liraglutide, 3.0 mg, Once Daily vs Placebo in Patients With Poor Weight Loss Following Metabolic Surgery: The BARI-OPTIMISE Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Metabolic surgery leads to weight loss and improved health, but these outcomes are highly variable. Poor weight loss is associated with lower circulating levels of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1). Objective: To assess the efficacy and safety of the GLP-1 receptor agonist, liraglutide, 3.0 mg, on percentage body weight reduction in patients with poor weight loss and suboptimal GLP-1 response after metabolic surgery. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Evaluation of Liraglutide 3.0 mg in Patients With Poor Weight Loss and a Suboptimal Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Response (BARI-OPTIMISE) randomized placebo-controlled trial recruited adult patients at least 1 year after metabolic surgery who had experienced 20% or less body weight loss from the day of surgery and a suboptimal nutrient-stimulated GLP-1 response from 2 hospitals in London, United Kingdom, between October 2018 and November 2019. Key exclusion criteria were type 1 diabetes; severe concomitant psychiatric, gastrointestinal, cardiac, kidney or metabolic disease; and use of insulin, GLP-1 receptor analogues, and medication that can affect weight. The study period was 24 weeks followed by a 4-week follow-up period. Last participant follow-up was completed in June 2020. All participants and clinical study personnel were blinded to treatment allocation. Of 154 assessed for eligibility, 70 met trial criteria and were included in the study, and 57 completed follow-up. Interventions: Liraglutide, 3.0 mg, once daily or placebo as an adjunct to lifestyle intervention with a 500-kcal daily energy deficit for 24 weeks, on a 1:1 allocation by computer-generated randomization sequence, stratified by surgery type (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass [RYGB] or sleeve gastrectomy [SG]) and type 2 diabetes status. Main Outcome and Measures: The primary outcome was change in percentage body weight from baseline to the end of the 24-week study period based on an intention-to-treat analysis. Participant safety was assessed through monitoring of biochemical parameters, including kidney and liver function, physical examination, and assessment for adverse events. Results: A total of 70 participants (mean [SD] age, 47.6 [10.7] years; 52 [74%] female) with a poor weight loss response following RYGB or SG were randomized to receive 3.0-mg liraglutide (n = 35) or placebo (n = 35). All participants received at least 1 dose of the trial drug. Eight participants discontinued treatment (4 per group), and 2 in the 3.0-mg liraglutide group and 1 in the placebo group were lost to follow-up. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, 3 participants in the 3.0-mg liraglutide group and 7 in the placebo group were unable to attend their final in-person assessment. Estimated change in mean (SD) percentage body weight from baseline to week 24 was -8.82 (4.94) with liraglutide, 3.0 mg (n = 31), vs -0.54 (3.32) with placebo (n = 26). The mean difference in percentage body weight change for liraglutide, 3.0 mg, vs placebo was -8.03 (95% CI, -10.39 to -5.66; P < .001). Adverse events, predominantly gastrointestinal, were more frequent with liraglutide, 3.0 mg (28 events [80%]), than placebo (20 events [57%]). There were no serious adverse events and no treatment-related deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: These findings support the use of adjuvant liraglutide, 3.0 mg, for weight management in patients with poor weight loss and suboptimal GLP-1 response after metabolic surgery. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03341429.

External validation of a risk model predicting failure of salvage focal ablation for prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVES: To externally validate a published model predicting failure within 2 years after salvage focal ablation in men with localised radiorecurrent prostate cancer using a prospective, UK multicentre dataset. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with biopsy-confirmed ≤T3bN0M0 cancer after previous external beam radiotherapy or brachytherapy were included from the FOcal RECurrent Assessment and Salvage Treatment (FORECAST) trial (NCT01883128; 2014-2018; six centres), and from the high-intensity focussed ultrasound (HIFU) Evaluation and Assessment of Treatment (HEAT) and International Cryotherapy Evaluation (ICE) UK-based registries (2006-2022; nine centres). Eligible patients underwent either salvage focal HIFU or cryotherapy, with the choice based predominantly on anatomical factors. Per the original multivariable Cox regression model, the predicted outcome was a composite failure outcome. Model performance was assessed at 2 years post-salvage with discrimination (concordance index [C-index]), calibration (calibration curve and slope), and decision curve analysis. For the latter, two clinically-reasonable risk threshold ranges of 0.14-0.52 and 0.26-0.36 were considered, corresponding to previously published pooled 2-year recurrence-free survival rates for salvage local treatments. RESULTS: A total of 168 patients were included, of whom 84/168 (50%) experienced the primary outcome in all follow-ups, and 72/168 (43%) within 2 years. The C-index was 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.58-0.71). On graphical inspection, there was close agreement between predicted and observed failure. The calibration slope was 1.01. In decision curve analysis, there was incremental net benefit vs a 'treat all' strategy at risk thresholds of ≥0.23. The net benefit was therefore higher across the majority of the 0.14-0.52 risk threshold range, and all of the 0.26-0.36 range. CONCLUSION: In external validation using prospective, multicentre data, this model demonstrated modest discrimination but good calibration and clinical utility for predicting failure of salvage focal ablation within 2 years. This model could be reasonably used to improve selection of appropriate treatment candidates for salvage focal ablation, and its use should be considered when discussing salvage options with patients. Further validation in larger, international cohorts with longer follow-up is recommended.

Outlier identification and monitoring of institutional or clinician performance: an overview of statistical methods and application to national audit data.

BACKGROUND: Institutions or clinicians (units) are often compared according to a performance indicator such as in-hospital mortality. Several approaches have been proposed for the detection of outlying units, whose performance deviates from the overall performance. METHODS: We provide an overview of three approaches commonly used to monitor institutional performances for outlier detection. These are the common-mean model, the 'Normal-Poisson' random effects model and the 'Logistic' random effects model. For the latter we also propose a visualisation technique. The common-mean model assumes that the underlying true performance of all units is equal and that any observed variation between units is due to chance. Even after applying case-mix adjustment, this assumption is often violated due to overdispersion and a post-hoc correction may need to be applied. The random effects models relax this assumption and explicitly allow the true performance to differ between units, thus offering a more flexible approach. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and illustrate their application using audit data from England and Wales on Adult Cardiac Surgery (ACS) and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI). RESULTS: In general, the overdispersion-corrected common-mean model and the random effects approaches produced similar p-values for the detection of outliers. For the ACS dataset (41 hospitals) three outliers were identified in total but only one was identified by all methods above. For the PCI dataset (88 hospitals), seven outliers were identified in total but only two were identified by all methods. The common-mean model uncorrected for overdispersion produced several more outliers. The reason for observing similar p-values for all three approaches could be attributed to the fact that the between-hospital variance was relatively small in both datasets, resulting only in a mild violation of the common-mean assumption; in this situation, the overdispersion correction worked well. CONCLUSION: If the common-mean assumption is likely to hold, all three methods are appropriate to use for outlier detection and their results should be similar. Random effect methods may be the preferred approach when the common-mean assumption is likely to be violated.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Targeted Biopsies Compared to Transperineal Mapping Biopsies Before Focal Ablation in Localised and Metastatic Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy occurs in one in five patients. The efficacy of prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in recurrent cancer has not been established. Furthermore, high-quality data on new minimally invasive salvage focal ablative treatments are needed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the role of prostate MRI in detection of prostate cancer recurring after radiotherapy and the role of salvage focal ablation in treating recurrent disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The FORECAST trial was both a paired-cohort diagnostic study evaluating prostate multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) and MRI-targeted biopsies in the detection of recurrent cancer and a cohort study evaluating focal ablation at six UK centres. A total of 181 patients were recruited, with 155 included in the MRI analysis and 93 in the focal ablation analysis. INTERVENTION: Patients underwent choline positron emission tomography/computed tomography and a bone scan, followed by prostate mpMRI and MRI-targeted and transperineal template-mapping (TTPM) biopsies. MRI was reported blind to other tests. Those eligible underwent subsequent focal ablation. An amendment in December 2014 permitted focal ablation in patients with metastases. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Primary outcomes were the sensitivity of MRI and MRI-targeted biopsies for cancer detection, and urinary incontinence after focal ablation. A key secondary outcome was progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Staging whole-body imaging revealed localised cancer in 128 patients (71%), with involvement of pelvic nodes only in 13 (7%) and metastases in 38 (21%). The sensitivity of MRI-targeted biopsy was 92% (95% confidence interval [CI] 83-97%). The specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 75% (95% CI 45-92%), 94% (95% CI 86-98%), and 65% (95% CI 38-86%), respectively. Four cancer (6%) were missed by TTPM biopsy and six (8%) were missed by MRI-targeted biopsy. The overall MRI sensitivity for detection of any cancer was 94% (95% CI 88-98%). The specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 18% (95% CI 7-35%), 80% (95% CI 73-87%), and 46% (95% CI 19-75%), respectively. Among 93 patients undergoing focal ablation, urinary incontinence occurred in 15 (16%) and five (5%) had a grade ≥3 adverse event, with no rectal injuries. Median follow-up was 27 mo (interquartile range 18-36); overall PFS was 66% (interquartile range 54-75%) at 24 mo. CONCLUSIONS: Patients should undergo prostate MRI with both systematic and targeted biopsies to optimise cancer detection. Focal ablation for areas of intraprostatic recurrence preserves continence in the majority, with good early cancer control. PATIENT SUMMARY: We investigated the role of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of the prostate and MRI-targeted biopsies in outcomes after cancer-targeted high-intensity ultrasound or cryotherapy in patients with recurrent cancer after radiotherapy. Our findings show that these patients should undergo prostate MRI with both systematic and targeted biopsies and then ablative treatment focused on areas of recurrent cancer to preserve their quality of life. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT01883128.

The accuracy of clinician predictions of survival in the Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2): A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic information is important for patients with cancer, their families, and clinicians. In practice, survival predictions are made by clinicians based on their experience, judgement, and intuition. Previous studies have reported that clinicians' survival predictions are often inaccurate. This study reports a secondary analysis of data from the Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2) to assess the accuracy of survival estimates made by doctors and nurses. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Adult patients (n = 1833) with incurable, locally advanced or metastatic cancer, recently referred to palliative care services (community teams, hospital teams, and inpatient palliative care units) were recruited. Doctors (n = 431) and nurses (n = 777) provided independent prognostic predictions and an agreed multi-professional prediction for each patient. Clinicians provided prognostic estimates in several formats including predictions about length of survival and probability of surviving to certain time points. There was a minimum follow up of three months or until death (whichever was sooner; maximum follow-up 783 days). Agreed multi-professional predictions about whether patients would survive for days, weeks or months+ were accurate on 61.9% of occasions. The positive predictive value of clinicians' predictions about imminent death (within one week) was 77% for doctors and 79% for nurses. The sensitivity of these predictions was low (37% and 35% respectively). Specific predictions about how many weeks patients would survive were not very accurate but showed good discrimination (patients estimated to survive for shorted periods had worse outcomes). The accuracy of clinicians' probabilistic predictions (assessed using Brier's scores) was consistently better than chance, improved with proximity to death and showed good discrimination between groups of patients with different survival outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Using a variety of different approaches, this study found that clinicians predictions of survival show good discrimination and accuracy, regardless of whether the predictions are about how long or how likely patients are to survive. Accuracy improves with proximity to death. Although the positive predictive value of estimates of imminent death are relatively high, the sensitivity of such predictions is relatively low. Despite limitations, the clinical prediction of survival should remain the benchmark against which any innovations in prognostication are judged. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN13688211. http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN13688211.

Multiparametric ultrasound versus multiparametric MRI to diagnose prostate cancer (CADMUS): a prospective, multicentre, paired-cohort, confirmatory study.

BACKGROUND: Multiparametric MRI of the prostate followed by targeted biopsy is recommended for patients at risk of prostate cancer. However, multiparametric ultrasound is more readily available than multiparametric MRI. Data from paired-cohort validation studies and randomised, controlled trials support the use of multiparametric MRI, whereas the evidence for individual ultrasound methods and multiparametric ultrasound is only derived from case series. We aimed to establish the overall agreement between multiparametric ultrasound and multiparametric MRI to diagnose clinically significant prostate cancer. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, multicentre, paired-cohort, confirmatory study in seven hospitals in the UK. Patients at risk of prostate cancer, aged 18 years or older, with an elevated prostate-specific antigen concentration or abnormal findings on digital rectal examination underwent both multiparametric ultrasound and multiparametric MRI. Multiparametric ultrasound consisted of B-mode, colour Doppler, real-time elastography, and contrast-enhanced ultrasound. Multiparametric MRI included high-resolution T2-weighted images, diffusion-weighted imaging (dedicated high B 1400 s/mm2 or 2000 s/mm2 and apparent diffusion coefficient map), and dynamic contrast-enhanced axial T1-weighted images. Patients with positive findings on multiparametric ultrasound or multiparametric MRI underwent targeted biopsies but were masked to their test results. If both tests yielded positive findings, the order of targeting at biopsy was randomly assigned (1:1) using stratified (according to centre only) block randomisation with randomly varying block sizes. The co-primary endpoints were the proportion of positive lesions on, and agreement between, multiparametric MRI and multiparametric ultrasound in identifying suspicious lesions (Likert score of ≥3), and detection of clinically significant cancer (defined as a Gleason score of ≥4 + 3 in any area or a maximum cancer core length of ≥6 mm of any grade [PROMIS definition 1]) in those patients who underwent a biopsy. Adverse events were defined according to Good Clinical Practice and trial regulatory guidelines. The trial is registered on ISRCTN, 38541912, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02712684, with recruitment and follow-up completed. FINDINGS: Between March 15, 2016, and Nov 7, 2019, 370 eligible patients were enrolled; 306 patients completed both multiparametric ultrasound and multiparametric MRI and 257 underwent a prostate biopsy. Multiparametric ultrasound was positive in 272 (89% [95% CI 85-92]) of 306 patients and multiparametric MRI was positive in 238 patients (78% [73-82]; difference 11·1% [95% CI 5·1-17·1]). Positive test agreement was 73·2% (95% CI 67·9-78·1; κ=0·06 [95% CI -0·56 to 0·17]). Any cancer was detected in 133 (52% [95% CI 45·5-58]) of 257 patients, with 83 (32% [26-38]) of 257 being clinically significant by PROMIS definition 1. Each test alone would result in multiparametric ultrasound detecting PROMIS definition 1 cancer in 66 (26% [95% CI 21-32]) of 257 patients who had biopsies and multiparametric MRI detecting it in 77 (30% [24-36]; difference -4·3% [95% CI -8·3% to -0·3]). Combining both tests detected 83 (32% [95% CI 27-38]) of 257 clinically significant cancers as per PROMIS definition 1; of these 83 cancers, six (7% [95% CI 3-15]) were detected exclusively with multiparametric ultrasound, and 17 (20% [12-31]) were exclusively detected by multiparametric MRI (agreement 91·1% [95% CI 86·9-94·2]; κ=0·78 [95% CI 0·69-0·86]). No serious adverse events were related to trial activity. INTERPRETATION: Multiparametric ultrasound detected 4·3% fewer clinically significant prostate cancers than multiparametric MRI, but it would lead to 11·1% more patients being referred for a biopsy. Multiparametric ultrasound could be an alternative to multiparametric MRI as a first test for patients at risk of prostate cancer, particularly if multiparametric MRI cannot be carried out. Both imaging tests missed clinically significant cancers detected by the other, so the use of both would increase the detection of clinically significant prostate cancers compared with using each test alone. FUNDING: The Jon Moulton Charity Trust, Prostate Cancer UK, and UCLH Charity and Barts Charity.

Cost-utility analysis of community occupational therapy in dementia (COTiD-UK) versus usual care: Results from VALID, a multi-site randomised controlled trial in the UK.

BACKGROUND: A community-based occupational therapy intervention for people with mild to moderate dementia and their family carers: the Community Occupational Therapy in Dementia-UK version (COTiD-UK); and Treatment as usual (TAU) were randomly assigned to 468 pairs (each comprising a person with dementia and a family carer) in the Valuing Active Life in Dementia (VALID) randomised controlled trial (RCT). OBJECTIVES: To compare the cost-utility of the COTiD-UK intervention compared to TAU, using data from the VALID RCT. METHODS: We performed a cost-utility analysis estimating mean costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) per person with dementia and carer for both treatments over a 26 weeks' time horizon based on resource use data and utility values collected in the trial. RESULTS: Taking the National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective, including costs and benefits to the person with dementia only, measuring Health Related Quality of Life based on Dementia Quality of Life scale (DEMQOL), accounting for missing data and adjusting for baseline values, there was a significant difference in costs between COTiD-UK and TAU (mean incremental cost for COTiD-UK £784 (95% CI £233 to £1334)), but no significant difference in outcomes (mean QALYs gained 0.00664 (95% CI -0.00404, 0.01732)). The Incremental Net Monetary Benefit (INMB) for COTiD-UK versus TAU was negative at a maximum willingness to pay for a QALY of £20000 (mean -£651, 95% CI -£878 to -£424) or £30000 (mean -£585, 95% CI -£824 to -£345). Extensive sensitivity analyses confirmed the results. CONCLUSIONS: This community-based occupational therapy intervention has a very low probability of being cost-effective.

Exploratory randomised trial of face-to-face and mobile phone counselling against usual care for tobacco cessation in Indian primary care: a randomised controlled trial protocol for project CERTAIN.

INTRODUCTION: Despite widespread use of smokeless tobacco products by people within the Indian subcontinent, there is little awareness among Indians of its health hazards when compared with smoked tobacco. We hypothesise that mobile phone counselling will be feasible and effective for smokeless tobacco cessation intervention in India. This paper presents the protocol of the development and conduct of an exploratory trial before progression to a full randomised controlled trial. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: An exploratory randomised controlled trial will be conducted in urban primary health centres in the state of Odisha, India. A total of 250 smokeless tobacco users will be recruited to the study (125 in each arm). Participants in the intervention arm will receive routine care together with a face-to-face counselling intervention followed by advice and reminder mobile messages. The control arm will receive routine care, delivered by a primary care physician based on 'Ask' and 'Advice'. All participants will be followed up for 3 months from the first counselling session. The primary outcome of this trial is to assess the feasibility to carry out a full randomised controlled trial. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approvals were obtained from the Institutional Ethics Committee of Public Health Foundation of India, Health Ministry's Screening Committee, Odisha State Ethics Board and also from University College London Research Ethics Committee, UK. The study findings will be published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CTRI/2019/05/019484.

The role of the electrocardiographic phenotype in risk stratification for sudden cardiac death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: The 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is routinely performed in children with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). An ECG risk score has been suggested as a useful tool for risk stratification, but this has not been independently validated. This aim of this study was to describe the ECG phenotype of childhood HCM in a large, international, multi-centre cohort and investigate its role in risk prediction for arrhythmic events. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data from 356 childhood HCM patients with a mean age of 10.1 years (±4.5) were collected from a retrospective, multi-centre international cohort. Three hundred and forty-seven (97.5%) patients had ECG abnormalities at baseline, most commonly repolarization abnormalities (n = 277, 77.8%); left ventricular hypertrophy (n = 240, 67.7%); abnormal QRS axis (n = 126, 35.4%); or QT prolongation (n = 131, 36.8%). Over a median follow-up of 3.9 years (interquartile range 2.0-7.7), 25 (7%) had an arrhythmic event, with an overall annual event rate of 1.38 (95% CI 0.93-2.04). No ECG variables were associated with 5-year arrhythmic event on univariable or multivariable analysis. The ECG risk score threshold of >5 had modest discriminatory ability [C-index 0.60 (95% CI 0.484-0.715)], with corresponding negative and positive predictive values of 96.7% and 6.7. CONCLUSION: In a large, international, multi-centre cohort of childhood HCM, ECG abnormalities were common and varied. No ECG characteristic, either in isolation or combined in the previously described ECG risk score, was associated with 5-year sudden cardiac death risk. This suggests that the role of baseline ECG phenotype in improving risk stratification in childhood HCM is limited.

A manualised weight management programme for adults with mild-moderate intellectual disabilities affected by excess weight: A randomised controlled feasibility trial (Shape Up-LD).

BACKGROUND: The aim was to pilot an adapted manualised weight management programme for persons with mild-moderate intellectual disabilities affected by overweight or obesity ('Shape Up-LD'). METHOD: Adults with intellectual disabilities were enrolled in a 6-month trial (3-month active intervention and 3-month follow-up) and were individually randomised to Shape Up-LD or a usual care control. Feasibility outcomes included recruitment, retention, initial effectiveness and cost. RESULTS: Fifty people were enrolled. Follow-up rates were 78% at 3 months and 74% at 6 months. At 3 and 6 months, controlling for baseline weight, no difference was observed between groups (3 months: ß: -0.34, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.38, 1.69, 6 months: ß: -0.55, 95%CI -4.34, 3.24). CONCLUSION: It may be possible to carry out a trial of Shape Up-LD, although barriers to recruitment, carer engagement and questionnaire completion need to be addressed, alongside refinements to the intervention.

External validation of the HCM Risk-Kids model for predicting sudden cardiac death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the most common mode of death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The newly developed HCM Risk-Kids model provides clinicians with individualized estimates of risk. The aim of this study was to externally validate the model in a large independent, multi-centre patient cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective, longitudinal cohort of 421 patients diagnosed with HCM aged 1-16 years independent of the HCM Risk-Kids development and internal validation cohort was studied. Data on HCM Risk-Kids predictor variables (unexplained syncope, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, maximal left ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, and left ventricular outflow tract gradient) were collected from the time of baseline clinical evaluation. The performance of the HCM Risk-Kids model in predicting risk at 5 years was assessed. Twenty-three patients (5.4%) met the SCD end-point within 5 years, with an overall incidence rate of 2.03 per 100 patient-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.48-2.78]. Model validation showed a Harrell's C-index of 0.745 (95% CI 0.52-0.97) and Uno's C-index 0.714 (95% 0.58-0.85) with a calibration slope of 1.15 (95% 0.51-1.80). A 5-year predicted risk threshold of ≥6% identified 17 (73.9%) SCD events with a corresponding C-statistic of 0.702 (95% CI 0.60-0.81). CONCLUSIONS: This study reports the first external validation of the HCM Risk-Kids model in a large and geographically diverse patient population. A 5-year predicted risk of ≥6% identified over 70% of events, confirming that HCM Risk-Kids provides a method for individualized risk predictions and shared decision-making in children with HCM.

Longitudinal Outcomes of Gender Identity in Children (LOGIC): study protocol for a retrospective analysis of the characteristics and outcomes of children referred to specialist gender services in the UK and the Netherlands.

INTRODUCTION: Specialist gender services for children and young people (CYP) worldwide have experienced a significant increase in referrals in recent years. As rates of referrals increase, it is important to understand the characteristics and profile of CYP attending these services in order to inform treatment pathways and to ensure optimal outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A retrospective observational study of clinical health records from specialist gender services for CYP in the UK and the Netherlands. The retrospective analysis will examine routinely collected clinical and outcome measures data including demographic, clinical, gender identity-related and healthcare resource use information. Data will be reported for each service and also compared between services. This study forms part of a wider programme of research investigating outcomes of gender identity in children (the Longitudinal Outcomes of Gender Identity in Children study). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The proposed study has been approved by the Health Research Authority and London-Hampstead Research Ethics Committee as application 19/LO/0181. The study findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at both conferences and stakeholder events.