The diaspora model for human migration.

Migration's impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy, and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models primarily rely on population size and travel distance to explain the spatial patterns of migration flows, overlooking significant population heterogeneities. Paradoxically, migrants often travel long distances and to smaller destinations if their diaspora is present in those locations. To address this gap, we propose the diaspora model of migration, incorporating intensity (the number of people moving to a country), and assortativity (the destination within the country). Our model considers only the existing diaspora sizes in the destination country, influencing the probability of migrants selecting a specific residence. Despite its simplicity, our model accurately reproduces the observed stable flow and distribution of migration in Austria (postal code level) and US metropolitan areas, yielding precise estimates of migrant inflow at various geographic scales. Given the increase in international migrations, this study enlightens our understanding of migration flow heterogeneities, helping design more inclusive, integrated cities.

On the forecastability of food insecurity.

Food insecurity, defined as the lack of physical or economic access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food, remains one of the main challenges included in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Near real-time data on the food insecurity situation collected by international organizations such as the World Food Programme can be crucial to monitor and forecast time trends of insufficient food consumption levels in countries at risk. Here, using food consumption observations in combination with secondary data on conflict, extreme weather events and economic shocks, we build a forecasting model based on gradient boosted regression trees to create predictions on the evolution of insufficient food consumption trends up to 30 days in to the future in 6 countries (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Mali, Nigeria, Syria and Yemen). Results show that the number of available historical observations is a key element for the forecasting model performance. Among the 6 countries studied in this work, for those with the longest food insecurity time series, that is Syria and Yemen, the proposed forecasting model allows to forecast the prevalence of people with insufficient food consumption up to 30 days into the future with higher accuracy than a naive approach based on the last measured prevalence only. The framework developed in this work could provide decision makers with a tool to assess how the food insecurity situation will evolve in the near future in countries at risk. Results clearly point to the added value of continuous near real-time data collection at sub-national level.

Machine learning can guide food security efforts when primary data are not available.

Estimating how many people are food insecure and where they are is of fundamental importance for governments and humanitarian organizations to make informed and timely decisions on relevant policies and programmes. In this study, we propose a machine learning approach to predict the prevalence of people with insufficient food consumption and of people using crisis or above-crisis food-based coping when primary data are not available. Making use of a unique global dataset, the proposed models can explain up to 81% of the variation in insufficient food consumption and up to 73% of the variation in crisis or above food-based coping levels. We also show that the proposed models can nowcast the food security situation in near real time and propose a method to identify which variables are driving the changes observed in predicted trends-which is key to make predictions serviceable to decision-makers.

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease.

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

A network approach to decentralized coordination of energy production-consumption grids.

Energy grids are facing a relatively new paradigm consisting in the formation of local distributed energy sources and loads that can operate in parallel independently from the main power grid (usually called microgrids). One of the main challenges in microgrid-like networks management is that of self-adapting to the production and demands in a decentralized coordinated way. Here, we propose a stylized model that allows to analytically predict the coordination of the elements in the network, depending on the network topology. Surprisingly, almost global coordination is attained when users interact locally, with a small neighborhood, instead of the obvious but more costly all-to-all coordination. We compute analytically the optimal value of coordinated users in random homogeneous networks. The methodology proposed opens a new way of confronting the analysis of energy demand-side management in networked systems.

A Mechanistic Model of Human Recall of Social Network Structure and Relationship Affect.

The social brain hypothesis argues that the need to deal with social challenges was key to our evolution of high intelligence. Research with non-human primates as well as experimental and fMRI studies in humans produce results consistent with this claim, leading to an estimate that human primary groups should consist of roughly 150 individuals. Gaps between this prediction and empirical observations can be partially accounted for using "compression heuristics", or schemata that simplify the encoding and recall of social information. However, little is known about the specific algorithmic processes used by humans to store and recall social information. We describe a mechanistic model of human network recall and demonstrate its sufficiency for capturing human recall behavior observed in experimental contexts. We find that human recall is predicated on accurate recall of a small number of high degree network nodes and the application of heuristics for both structural and affective information. This provides new insight into human memory, social network evolution, and demonstrates a novel approach to uncovering human cognitive operations.

Untangling the role of diverse social dimensions in the diffusion of microfinance.

Ties between individuals on a social network can represent different dimensions of interactions, and the spreading of information and innovations on these networks could potentially be driven by some dimensions more than by others. In this paper we investigate this issue by studying the diffusion of microfinance within rural India villages and accounting for the whole multilayer structure of the underlying social networks. We define a new measure of node centrality, diffusion versatility, and show that this is a better predictor of microfinance participation rate than previously introduced measures defined on aggregated single-layer social networks. Moreover, we untangle the role played by each social dimension and find that the most prominent role is played by the nodes that are central on layers concerned with trust, shedding new light on the key triggers of the diffusion of microfinance.

Quantifying the diaspora of knowledge in the last century.

Academic research is driven by several factors causing different disciplines to act as "sources" or "sinks" of knowledge. However, how the flow of authors' research interests - a proxy of human knowledge - evolved across time is still poorly understood. Here, we build a comprehensive map of such flows across one century, revealing fundamental periods in the raise of interest in areas of human knowledge. We identify and quantify the most attractive topics over time, when a relatively significant number of researchers moved from their original area to another one, causing what we call a "diaspora of the knowledge" towards sinks of scientific interest, and we relate these points to crucial historical and political events. Noticeably, only a few areas - like Medicine, Physics or Chemistry - mainly act as sources of the diaspora, whereas areas like Material Science, Chemical Engineering, Neuroscience, Immunology and Microbiology or Environmental Science behave like sinks.

Followers are not enough: a multifaceted approach to community detection in online social networks.

In online social media networks, individuals often have hundreds or even thousands of connections, which link these users not only to friends, associates, and colleagues, but also to news outlets, celebrities, and organizations. In these complex social networks, a 'community' as studied in the social network literature, can have very different meaning depending on the property of the network under study. Taking into account the multifaceted nature of these networks, we claim that community detection in online social networks should also be multifaceted in order to capture all of the different and valuable viewpoints of 'community.' In this paper we focus on three types of communities beyond follower-based structural communities: activity-based, topic-based, and interaction-based. We analyze a Twitter dataset using three different weightings of the structural network meant to highlight these three community types, and then infer the communities associated with these weightings. We show that interesting insights can be obtained about the complex community structure present in social networks by studying when and how these four community types give rise to similar as well as completely distinct community structure.

Ranking in interconnected multilayer networks reveals versatile nodes.

The determination of the most central agents in complex networks is important because they are responsible for a faster propagation of information, epidemics, failures and congestion, among others. A challenging problem is to identify them in networked systems characterized by different types of interactions, forming interconnected multilayer networks. Here we describe a mathematical framework that allows us to calculate centrality in such networks and rank nodes accordingly, finding the ones that play the most central roles in the cohesion of the whole structure, bridging together different types of relations. These nodes are the most versatile in the multilayer network. We investigate empirical interconnected multilayer networks and show that the approaches based on aggregating--or neglecting--the multilayer structure lead to a wrong identification of the most versatile nodes, overestimating the importance of more marginal agents and demonstrating the power of versatility in predicting their role in diffusive and congestion processes.