Development of a Clinical Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality from the South African Cohort of the African Surgical Outcomes Study.

BACKGROUND: Data on the factors that influence mortality after surgery in South Africa are scarce, and neither these data nor data on risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality after surgery are routinely collected. Predictors related to the context or setting of surgical care delivery may also provide insight into variation in practice. Variation must be addressed when planning for improvement of risk-adjusted outcomes. Our objective was to identify the factors predicting in-hospital mortality after surgery in South Africa from available data. METHODS: A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify predictors of 30-day in-hospital mortality in surgical patients in South Africa. Data from the South African contribution to the African Surgical Outcomes Study were used and included 3800 cases from 51 hospitals. A forward stepwise regression technique was then employed to select for possible predictors prior to model specification. Model performance was evaluated by assessing calibration and discrimination. The South African Surgical Outcomes Study cohort was used to validate the model. RESULTS: Variables found to predict 30-day in-hospital mortality were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status category, urgent or emergent surgery, major surgery, and gastrointestinal-, head and neck-, thoracic- and neurosurgery. The area under the receiver operating curve or c-statistic was 0.859 (95% confidence interval: 0.827-0.892) for the full model. Calibration, as assessed using a calibration plot, was acceptable. Performance was similar in the validation cohort as compared to the derivation cohort. CONCLUSION: The prediction model did not include factors that can explain how the context of care influences post-operative mortality in South Africa. It does, however, provide a basis for reporting risk-adjusted perioperative mortality rate in the future, and identifies the types of surgery to be prioritised in quality improvement projects at a local or national level.

Informal Caregiver Challenges for Advanced Cancer Patients During End-of-Life Care in Johannesburg, South Africa and Distinctions Based on Place of Death.

CONTEXT: In sub-Saharan Africa, late diagnosis with cancer is common. Many dying patients rely on family members for care; little is known about the challenges African informal caregivers face. OBJECTIVES: To better understand the challenges of informal caregivers at the end of life in South Africa, both at home and in inpatient facilities. METHODS: We included advanced cancer patients and caregivers from a public hospital in Johannesburg, South Africa. Study nurses interviewed patients and caregivers about their experiences. Using univariate and multivariate analyses, we determined the factors associated with greater caregiver difficulty, focusing on patients dying at home vs. in inpatient facilities. RESULTS: Among 174 informal caregivers, 62 (36%) reported "a lot" of challenges. These caregivers struggled most with keeping the patient clean (16%) and with patient interactions (34%). Symptoms associated with greater difficulty included pain (odds ratio [OR] 2.4 [95% CI 1.2-4.7]), urinary incontinence (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.1-4.9]), fecal incontinence (OR 2.4 [95% CI 1.0-5.7]), insomnia (OR 2.9 [95% CI 1.3-6.9]), fatigue (OR 6.3 [95% CI 1.8-21.6]), extremity weakness (OR 2.9 [95% CI 1.3-6.9]), shame (OR 4.2 [95% CI 1.5-12.0]), and sadness (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.1-4.8]). Caregivers of patients dying at home reported the greatest difficulty with patients' physical symptoms; caregivers of those dying in facilities reported the greatest difficulty with emotional symptoms. CONCLUSION: Informal caregivers of patients dying at home reported challenges with practical functional care; this effect was reduced in the inpatient setting. Skills training for these caregivers could relieve some of this burden.

Polymerase chain reaction amplifying mycobacterial DNA from aspirates obtained by endoscopic ultrasound allows accurate diagnosis of mycobacterial disease in HIV-positive patients with abdominal lymphadenopathy.

Abdominal lymphadenopathy in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains a diagnostic challenge. We performed a prospective cohort study by recruiting 31 symptomatic HIV + patients with abdominal lymphadenopathy and assessing the diagnostic yield of endoscopic ultrasound fine-needle aspiration (EUS-FNA). Mean age was 38 years; 52% were female; and mean CD4 count and viral load were 124 cells/µL and 4 log, respectively. EUS confirmed additional mediastinal nodes in 26%. The porta hepatis was the most common abdominal site. Aspirates obtained by EUS-FNA were subjected to cytology, culture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. Mycobacterial infections were confirmed in 67.7%, and 31% had reactive lymphadenopathy. Cytology and culture had low sensitivity, whereas PCR identified 90% of mycobacterial infections. By combining the appearance of aspirates obtained by EUS-FNA and cytologic specimens, we developed a diagnostic algorithm to indicate when analysis with PCR would be useful. PCR performed on material obtained by EUS-FNA was highly accurate in confirming mycobacterial disease and determining genotypic drug resistance.