Evaluating the Efficacy of ChatGPT in Navigating the Spanish Medical Residency Entrance Examination (MIR): Promising Horizons for AI in Clinical Medicine.

The rapid progress in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing has led to increasingly sophisticated large language models (LLMs) for use in healthcare. This study assesses the performance of two LLMs, the GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 models, in passing the MIR medical examination for access to medical specialist training in Spain. Our objectives included gauging the model's overall performance, analyzing discrepancies across different medical specialties, discerning between theoretical and practical questions, estimating error proportions, and assessing the hypothetical severity of errors committed by a physician. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We studied the 2022 Spanish MIR examination results after excluding those questions requiring image evaluations or having acknowledged errors. The remaining 182 questions were presented to the LLM GPT-4 and GPT-3.5 in Spanish and English. Logistic regression models analyzed the relationships between question length, sequence, and performance. We also analyzed the 23 questions with images, using GPT-4's new image analysis capability. RESULTS: GPT-4 outperformed GPT-3.5, scoring 86.81% in Spanish (p < 0.001). English translations had a slightly enhanced performance. GPT-4 scored 26.1% of the questions with images in English. The results were worse when the questions were in Spanish, 13.0%, although the differences were not statistically significant (p = 0.250). Among medical specialties, GPT-4 achieved a 100% correct response rate in several areas, and the Pharmacology, Critical Care, and Infectious Diseases specialties showed lower performance. The error analysis revealed that while a 13.2% error rate existed, the gravest categories, such as "error requiring intervention to sustain life" and "error resulting in death", had a 0% rate. CONCLUSIONS: GPT-4 performs robustly on the Spanish MIR examination, with varying capabilities to discriminate knowledge across specialties. While the model's high success rate is commendable, understanding the error severity is critical, especially when considering AI's potential role in real-world medical practice and its implications for patient safety.

Trends, Projections, and Regional Disparities of Maternal Mortality in Africa (1990-2030): An ARIMA Forecasting Approach.

With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015-2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990-2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of -2.6% (95% CI -2.7; -2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 161 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 302 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa, averaging 182 per 100,000 births for the continent. Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, no region of Africa will likely reach the SDG target.

COVID-19 Impact on DTP Vaccination Trends in Africa: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Deaths due to vaccine-preventable diseases are one of the leading causes of death among African children. Vaccine coverage is an essential measure to decrease infant mortality. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the healthcare system and may have disrupted vaccine coverage. METHODS: DTP third doses (DTP3) Vaccine Coverage was extracted from UNICEF databases from 2012 to 2021 (the last available date). Joinpoint regression was performed to detect the point where the trend changed. The annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) was calculated for Africa and the regions. We compared DTP3 vaccination coverage in 2019-2021 in each country using the Chi-square test. RESULT: During the whole period, the vaccine coverage in Africa increased with an Annual Percent change of 1.2% (IC 95% 0.9-1.5): We detected one joinpoint in 2019. In 2019-2021, there was a decrease in DTP3 coverage with an APC of -3.5 (95% -6.0; -0,9). (p < 0.001). Vaccination rates decreased in many regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Eastern and Southern Africa. There were 26 countries (Angola, Cabo Verde, Comoros, Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eswatini, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, and Zimbabwe) where the vaccine coverage during the two years decreased. There were 10 countries (Angola, Cabo Verde, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eswatini, The Gambia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, and Sudan) where the joinpoint regression detected a change in the trend. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 has disrupted vaccine coverage, decreasing it all over Africa.

Maternal Mortality in Africa: Regional Trends (2000-2017).

BACKGROUND: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa's leading causes of death among women. The leading causes of maternal mortality in Africa are hemorrhage and eclampsia. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality (MM) in Africa. METHODS: We extracted data for maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) databank from 2000 to 2017, 2017 being the last date available. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). RESULTS: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of -3.0% (95% CI -2.9; -3,2%). All regions showed significant downward trends, with the greatest decreases in the South. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations' sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in the South African region. The only region close to the United Nations' target is the North African region. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. The West African region needs more extraordinary efforts to achieve the goals of the United Nations. Policies should ensure that all pregnant women have antenatal visits and give birth in a health facility staffed by specialized personnel.

Being Born in Winter-Spring and at Around the Time of an Influenza Pandemic Are Risk Factors for the Development of Schizophrenia: The Apna Study in Navarre, Spain.

BACKGROUND: We analyzed the relationship between the prevalence of schizophrenia and the season of birth and gestation during a period of an influenza pandemic. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of a prospective population-based cohort of 470,942 adults. We fitted multivariant logistic regression models to determine whether the season of birth and birth in an influenza-pandemic year (1957, 1968, 1977) was associated with schizophrenia. RESULTS: 2077 subjects had been diagnosed with schizophrenia. Logistic regression identified a significantly greater prevalence of schizophrenia in men than in women (OR = 1.516, CI 95% = 1.388-1.665); in those born in the winter or spring than in those born in the summer or autumn (OR = 1.112, CI 95% = 1.020-1.212); and in those born in a period of an influenza pandemic (OR = 1.335, CI 95% = 1.199-1.486). The increase in risk was also significant when each influenza pandemic year was analyzed separately. However, neither month of birth nor season of birth, when each of the four were studied individually, were associated with a statistically significant increase in that risk. CONCLUSIONS: The winter-spring period and the influenza pandemics are independent risk factors for developing schizophrenia. This study contradicts many previous studies and thus revitalizes a locked debate in understanding the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of this disorder.

Mortalidad infantil en la Unión Europea: análisis de tendencias en el período 1994-2015 / Infant mortality in the European Union: A time trend analysis of the 1994-2015 period

Introducción: La mortalidad infantil es un indicador de la salud infantil y una variable explicativa del desarrollo socioeconómico. Nuestro objetivo fue examinar los cambios y tendencias de la mortalidad infantil en la Unión Europea (UE) y sus 28 países miembros en el período 1994-2015. Métodos: Se recopilaron datos de muertes de niños menores de un año entre 1994 y 2015 de la base de datos Eurostat. Estudiamos las tendencias en la UE, por países y regiones, utilizando el análisis de regresión joinpoint. Se condujeron análisis adicionales para estudiar las tendencias de mortalidad neonatal y neonatal precoz. Resultados: La mortalidad infantil en la UE ha disminuido significativamente de 8,3 a 3,6 por 1.000 (porcentaje de cambio anual = -3,8%, intervalos de confianza del 95% -4,1; -3,6). Las tasas de mortalidad más altas se registraron en Rumanía y Bulgaria, y las tasas más bajas en países escandinavos (Finlandia, Suecia). Se encontraron tendencias descendentes significativas en los países de la UE, más pronunciadas en los países bálticos exsoviéticos y países de Europa oriental, mientras que los países de Europa occidental mostraron los descensos menos pronunciados. La mortalidad infantil ha aumentado significativamente en Grecia en los últimos años, mientras que en el Reino Unido e Irlanda las tasas se han estabilizado. Conclusiones: La mortalidad infantil ha disminuido en la UE y sus países en las últimas décadas, más pronunciadamente en los países de Europa oriental y los países bálticos exsoviéticos, mientras que en varios países de Europa occidental las tasas aumentaron o se han estabilizado en los últimos años

Background: Infant mortality is an indicator of child health, and an explanatory variable to reflect the socioeconomic development of a country. We aimed to examine the changes and trends of infant mortality in the European Union (EU) and its 28 member states in the 1994-2015 period. Methods: We extracted data of deaths in children aged less than one year between 1994 and 2015 from the Eurostat database. We analysed secular variation in the EU overall, by country and by geographical region using joinpoint regression analysis. We conducted additional analyses to examine neonatal and early neonatal mortality trends. Results: Infant mortality in the EU has declined significantly from 8,3 to 3,6 per 1,000 live births (annual percent change = -3,8%; 95% confidence interval, -4,1 to -3,6). Among EU countries, we found the highest mortality rates throughout the study period in Romania and Bulgaria, and the lowest rates in Scandinavian countries (Finland, Sweden). There were significant decreasing trends in every country of the EU, which were most pronounced in former Soviet Baltic states and Eastern European countries, and least pronounced in Western European countries. Mortality rates have increased significantly in Greece in the last years, and plateaued in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Conclusions: Our findings, which are based on official data, provide consistent evidence that infant mortality has declined steadily in the EU and its member states in the past decades, most markedly in Eastern European countries and former Soviet Baltic states. However, rates have risen or levelled off in some western countries in the past few years

[Infant mortality in the European Union: A time trend analysis of the 1994-2015 period]. / Mortalidad infantil en la Unión Europea: análisis de tendencias en el período 1994-2015.

BACKGROUND: Infant mortality is an indicator of child health, and an explanatory variable to reflect the socioeconomic development of a country. We aimed to examine the changes and trends of infant mortality in the European Union (EU) and its 28 member states in the 1994-2015 period. METHODS: We extracted data of deaths in children aged less than one year between 1994 and 2015 from the Eurostat database. We analysed secular variation in the EU overall, by country and by geographical region using joinpoint regression analysis. We conducted additional analyses to examine neonatal and early neonatal mortality trends. RESULTS: Infant mortality in the EU has declined significantly from 8,3 to 3,6 per 1,000 live births (annual percent change=-3,8%; 95% confidence interval, -4,1 to -3,6). Among EU countries, we found the highest mortality rates throughout the study period in Romania and Bulgaria, and the lowest rates in Scandinavian countries (Finland, Sweden). There were significant decreasing trends in every country of the EU, which were most pronounced in former Soviet Baltic states and Eastern European countries, and least pronounced in Western European countries. Mortality rates have increased significantly in Greece in the last years, and plateaued in the United Kingdom and Ireland. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings, which are based on official data, provide consistent evidence that infant mortality has declined steadily in the EU and its member states in the past decades, most markedly in Eastern European countries and former Soviet Baltic states. However, rates have risen or levelled off in some western countries in the past few years.