Lung cancer risk and past exposure to emissions from a large steel plant.

We studied the spatial distribution of cancer incidence rates around a large steel plant and its association with historical exposure. The study population was close to 600,000. The incidence data was collected for 1995-2006. From historical emission data the air pollution concentrations for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and metals were modelled. Data were analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression models. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for lung cancer was up to 40% higher than average in postcodes located in two municipalities adjacent to the industrial area. Increased incidence rates could partly be explained by differences in socioeconomic status (SES). In the highest exposure category (approximately 45,000 inhabitants) a statistically significant increased relative risk (RR) of 1.21 (1.01-1.43) was found after adjustment for SES. The elevated RRs were similar for men and women. Additional analyses in a subsample of the population with personal smoking data from a recent survey suggested that the observed association between lung cancer and plant emission, after adjustment for SES, could still be caused by residual confounding. Therefore, we cannot indisputably conclude that past emissions from the steel plant have contributed to the increased risk of lung cancer.

Prevalence of family violence in adults and children: estimates using the capture-recapture method.

BACKGROUND: Reliable prevalence estimates of family violence in adults and children are difficult to obtain. Most are based on surveys or registration counts, whose research designs and methods are often questionable, making the results difficult to compare. This article presents an alternative approach. METHODS: The capture-recapture method (CRC), which makes it possible to estimate unknown numbers in a partly hidden population, was applied to data from eight collaborating organizations in Haarlem, The Netherlands. RESULTS: Uniform data registration took place over a 7-month period. The 1-year prevalence rate for adult victims of family violence was estimated to be 2.0% of the adult population (95% CI: 1.3-3.1). For victims of child abuse, it was 1.5-2.5%, and for child witnesses of spouse-abuse, it was 1.2-2.1%, though small numbers made these results more uncertain. Only approximately 20% of all victims in the study were known to one or more of the participating organizations. Our results accorded quite well with results obtained by general health surveys in the Netherlands. CONCLUSIONS: CRC appears to be a valid and feasible research method for estimating the prevalence of family violence and child abuse. It can be used to complement other methods, especially in young children, in whom valid results are otherwise difficult to obtain.