Forecasting relative impacts of land use on anadromous fish habitat to guide conservation planning.

Land use change can adversely affect water quality and freshwater ecosystems, yet our ability to predict how systems will respond to different land uses, particularly rural-residential development, is limited by data availability and our understanding of biophysical thresholds. In this study, we use spatially explicit parcel-level data to examine the influence of land use (including urban, rural-residential, and vineyard) on salmon spawning substrate quality in tributaries of the Russian River in California. We develop a land use change model to forecast the probability of losses in high-quality spawning habitat and recommend priority areas for incentive-based land conservation efforts. Ordinal logistic regression results indicate that all three land use types were negatively associated with spawning substrate quality, with urban development having the largest marginal impact. For two reasons, however, forecasted rural-residential and vineyard development have much larger influences on decreasing spawning substrate quality relative to urban development. First, the land use change model estimates 10 times greater land use conversion to both rural-residential and vineyard compared to urban. Second, forecasted urban development is concentrated in the most developed watersheds, which already have poor spawning substrate quality, such that the marginal response to future urban development is less significant. To meet the goals of protecting salmonid spawning habitat and optimizing investments in salmon recovery, we suggest investing in watersheds where future rural-residential development and vineyards threaten high-quality fish habitat, rather than the most developed watersheds, where land values are higher.

Large woody debris and land management in California's hardwood-dominated watersheds.

Although large woody debris (LWD) has been studied extensively in conifer-dominated watersheds, relatively little is known about LWD in hardwood-dominated watersheds. Field surveys of 32 hardwood-dominated stream reaches in northern coastal California revealed that levels of LWD varied with land ownership and that living trees strongly influenced debris jam formation. Almost half of the channel-spanning debris jams, which stored the most wood and were most likely to form a pool, were formed behind a key piece that was still living. These living key pieces might provide greater longevity and stability than would otherwise be expected from hardwood LWD. Compared to streams on private land, streams on public land had significantly greater LWD loading and debris-jam frequency. Land management practices that remove wood from streams might be contributing to the degradation of salmonid habitat in California's hardwood-dominated watersheds.