Older age of childhood type 1 diabetes onset is associated with islet autoantibody positivity >30 years later: the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study.

AIMS: To examine the association between islet autoantibody positivity and clinical characteristics, residual ß-cell function (C-peptide) and prevalence of complications in a childhood-onset (age <17 years), long-duration (≥32 years) type 1 diabetes cohort. METHODS: Islet autoantibodies (glutamic acid decarboxylase, insulinoma-associated protein 2 and zinc transporter-8 antibodies) were measured in the serum of participants who attended the 2011-2013 Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications study follow-up examination (n=177, mean age 51 years, diabetes duration 43 years). RESULTS: Prevalences of islet autoantibodies were: glutamic acid decarboxylase, 32%; insulinoma-associated protein 2, 22%; and zinc transporter-8, 4%. Positivity for each islet autoantibody was associated with older age at diabetes onset (glutamic acid decarboxylase antibodies, P=0.03; insulinoma-associated protein 2 antibodies, P=0.001; zinc transporter-8 antibodies, P<0.0001). Older age at onset was also associated with an increasing number of autoantibodies (P = 0.001). Glutamic acid decarboxylase antibody positivity was also associated with lower HbA1c (P = 0.02), insulinoma-associated protein 2 antibody positivity was associated with lower prevalence of severe hypoglycaemic episodes (P=0.02) and both distal and autonomic neuropathy (P=0.04 for both), and zinc transporter-8 antibody positivity was associated with higher total and LDL cholesterol (P=0.01). No association between autoantibody positivity and C-peptide was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The strong association between islet autoantibody positivity and older age at type 1 diabetes onset supports the hypothesis of a less aggressive, and thus more persistent, immune process in those with older age at onset. This observation suggests that there may be long-term persistence of heterogeneity in the underlying autoimmune process.

Effect of age at menarche on microvascular complications among women with Type 1 diabetes.

AIM: To test the hypothesis that delayed menarche is associated with an increased microvascular complication risk among women with Type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We studied the female participants of an ongoing prospective study of childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes diagnosed during the period 1950-1980. Of 325 women, we included data from 315 who had reached menarche by the study baseline (1986-1988) and who self-reported their age at menarche. Both cross-sectional and prospective analyses over the 25-year follow-up were used to assess the relationship of age at menarche with the prevalence, incidence and cumulative incidence of microvascular complications, comprising overt nephropathy, proliferative retinopathy and confirmed distal symmetric polyneuropathy. RESULTS: In cross-sectional analyses at baseline, the odds of overt nephropathy increased 1.24 times (P=0.02) with each annual increase in age at menarche, and 3.2 times (P=0.009) in those with delayed menarche compared with women with normal menarche onset, after adjustment. Similarly, the cumulative incidence of overt nephropathy increased 1.16 times (P=0.01) with each older year of menarche and women with delayed menarche were at twofold increased risk of overt nephropathy (hazard ratio 2.30, P=0.001) compared with women with normal menarche onset. However, age at menarche was not significantly associated with either proliferative retinopathy or confirmed distal symmetric polyneuropathy after adjusting for covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Age at menarche was significantly associated with the prevalence and cumulative incidence of overt nephropathy, but not with proliferative retinopathy or confirmed distal symmetric polyneuropathy in Type 1 diabetes. Women with delayed menarche may therefore be targeted for early screening and timely interventions to prevent the development of nephropathy.

Depressive symptoms and cerebral microvascular disease in adults with Type 1 diabetes mellitus.

AIM: To assess the prevalence of, and risk factors for, depressive symptoms, comparing a sample of middle-aged adults with and without juvenile-onset Type 1 diabetes mellitus, and to determine if depressive symptoms were associated with white matter hyperintensity volume among those with Type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Depressive symptoms and white matter hyperintensities were compared between adults (age range 30-65 years) with juvenile-onset Type 1 diabetes (n=130) and adults without Type 1 diabetes (n=133). The association of Type 1 diabetes with depression was computed before and after adjustment for white matter hyperintensities. Among the Type 1 diabetes group, the primary associations of interest were between depressive symptoms (Beck Depression Inventory score ≥10) and white matter hyperintensities (n=71), hyperglycaemia and physical activity. Associations between depressive symptoms and diabetes-related complications, cognitive impairment, smoking and self-reported disability were examined. Analyses were controlled for education, sex, age and antidepressant use. RESULTS: Depressive symptoms were more prevalent among those with vs those without Type 1 diabetes (28% vs 3%; P<0.001). White matter hyperintensities explained 40% of the association of Type 1 diabetes with depressive symptoms, while Type 1 diabetes had a direct effect of 68% on depressive symptoms. Among those with Type 1 diabetes, depressive symptoms were related to white matter hyperintensity volume, a 16-year average HbA1c ≥58 mmol/mol (7.5%), and lower physical activity levels. Associations with other characteristics were not significant. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest a cerebrovascular origin for depressive symptoms in adults with Type 1 diabetes, perhaps triggered by hyperglycaemia. Future longitudinal studies should investigate whether targeting hyperglycaemia and physical inactivity alleviates depressive symptoms, possibly by slowing the development of cerebral microvascular disease, in people with Type 1 diabetes.

Predictors of early renal function decline in adults with Type 1 diabetes: the Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes and the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications studies.

AIM: Diabetic kidney disease is one of the leading complications of Type 1 diabetes, but its prediction remains a challenge. We examined predictors of rapid decline in estimated GFR (eGFR) in two Type 1 diabetes cohorts: the Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes (CACTI) and the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC). METHODS: A select subset of participants (CACTI: n = 210 and EDC: n = 98) diagnosed before 17 years of age with Type 1 diabetes duration ≥ 7 years, and follow-up data on eGFR by CKD-EPI creatinine for up to 8 years were included in the analyses. Early renal function decline was defined as annual decline in eGFR ≥ 3 ml/min/1.73 m2 , and normal age-related decline as eGFR ≤ 1 ml/min/1.73 m2 . Parallel logistic regression models were constructed in the two cohorts. RESULTS: Early renal function decline incidence was 36% in CACTI and 41% in EDC. In both cohorts, greater baseline eGFR (CACTI: OR 3.12, 95% CI 1.97-5.05; EDC: OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.17-3.15 per 10 ml/min/1.73 m2 ) and log albumin-to-creatinine (ACR) (CACTI: OR 3.24, 95% CI 1.80-5.83; EDC: OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.18-2.96 per 1 unit) predicted greater odds of early renal function decline in fully adjusted models. Conversely, ACE inhibition predicted lower odds of early renal function decline in women in CACTI, but similar relationships were not observed in women in EDC. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial proportion of people with Type 1 diabetes in the EDC and CACTI cohorts experienced early renal function decline over time. ACE inhibition appeared to be protective only in women in CACTI where the prevalence of its use was twofold higher compared with the EDC.

Glycaemic control modifies the haptoglobin 2 allele-conferred susceptibility to coronary artery disease in Type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: We aimed to assess whether the association of the haptoglobin 2 allele with coronary artery disease is modified by glycaemic control in a prospective cohort study of individuals with childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Coronary artery disease events (death from coronary artery disease, confirmed myocardial infarction, stenosis ≥50%, revascularization) were assessed between 1986 and 2013 among 480 individuals with Type 1 diabetes (baseline age 28 years; diabetes duration 19 years). Better glycaemic control was defined as an updated mean HbA1c during follow-up of <8% (64 mmol/mol). RESULTS: In crude models, the incidence of coronary artery disease increased with the number of haptoglobin 2 alleles (hazard ratio 1.34, 95% CI 1.05-1.71). This association was more pronounced in those with better than in those with worse glycaemic control (P interaction = 0.05) and remained essentially unaltered after multivariable adjustments (hazard ratio 2.65, 95% CI 1.30-5.41 in those with better glycaemic control and hazard ratio 1.20, 95% CI 0.93-1.56 in those with worse glycaemic control). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that, although better control may reduce the incidence of coronary artery disease in Type 1 diabetes, a residual risk related to the haptoglobin 2 allele remains.

Prevalence and incidence of clinically recognized cases of Type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents in Rwanda, Africa.

AIMS: To determine prevalence and incidence estimates for clinically recognized cases of Type 1 diabetes from the Life For a Child Program (LFAC) with onset < 26 years in six representative districts, and the capital, of Rwanda. METHODS: Cases were identified from the LFAC registry and visits to district hospitals. Denominators were calculated from district-level population surveys. Period prevalence data were collected from 1 August 2011 to 31 July 2012 and annual incidence rates were calculated, retrospectively, for 2004-2011. Ninety-five per cent confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: The prevalence of known Type 1 diabetes in seven districts in Rwanda for ages < 26 years was 16.4 [95% CI 14.6-18.4]/100 000 and for < 15 years was 4.8 [3.5-6.4]/100 000. Prevalence was higher in females (18.5 [15.8-21.4]/100 000) than males (14.1 [11.8-16.7]/100 000; P = 0.01) and rates increased with age. The annual incidence rate for those < 26 years was stable between 2007 and 2011 with a mean incidence over that time of 2.7 [2.0-3.7]/100 000 ( < 15 years = 1.2 [0.5-2.0]/100 000). Incidence rates were higher in females than males and peaked in males at ages 17 and 22 years and in females at age 18 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our report of known Type 1 diabetes cases shows lower incidence and prevalence rates in Rwanda than previously reported in the USA and most African countries. Incidence of recognized cases has increased over time, but has recently stabilized. However, the likelihood of missed cases due to death before diagnosis and misdiagnosis is high and therefore more definitive studies are needed.

Diabetes autoantibodies do not predict progression to diabetes in adults: the Diabetes Prevention Program.

AIMS: To determine if the presence of diabetes autoantibodies predicts the development of diabetes among participants in the Diabetes Prevention Program. METHODS: A total of 3050 participants were randomized into three treatment groups: intensive lifestyle intervention, metformin and placebo. Glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD) 65 autoantibodies and insulinoma-associated-2 autoantibodies were measured at baseline and participants were followed for 3.2 years for the development of diabetes. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of GAD autoantibodies was 4.0%, and it varied across racial/ethnic groups from 2.4% among Asian-Pacific Islanders to 7.0% among non-Hispanic black people. There were no significant differences in BMI or metabolic variables (glucose, insulin, HbA(1c), estimated insulin resistance, corrected insulin response) stratified by baseline GAD antibody status. GAD autoantibody positivity did not predict diabetes overall (adjusted hazard ratio 0.98; 95% CI 0.56-1.73) or in any of the three treatment groups. Insulinoma-associated-2 autoantibodies were positive in only one participant (0.033%). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that 'diabetes autoimmunity', as reflected by GAD antibodies and insulinoma-associated-2 autoantibodies, in middle-aged individuals at risk for diabetes is not a clinically relevant risk factor for progression to diabetes.

Metabolic syndrome components and their response to lifestyle and metformin interventions are associated with differences in diabetes risk in persons with impaired glucose tolerance.

AIMS: To determine the association of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components with diabetes risk in participants with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and whether intervention-related changes in MetS lead to differences in diabetes incidence. METHODS: We used the National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP/ATP III) revised MetS definition at baseline and intervention-related changes of its components to predict incident diabetes using Cox models in 3234 Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) participants with IGT over an average follow-up of 3.2 years. RESULTS: In an intention-to-treat analysis, the demographic-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for diabetes in those with MetS (vs. no MetS) at baseline were 1.7 (1.3-2.3), 1.7 (1.2-2.3) and 2.0 (1.3-3.0) for placebo, metformin and lifestyle groups, respectively. Higher levels of fasting plasma glucose and triglycerides at baseline were independently associated with increased risk of diabetes. Greater waist circumference (WC) was associated with higher risk in placebo and lifestyle groups, but not in the metformin group. In a multivariate model, favourable changes in WC (placebo and lifestyle) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (placebo and metformin) contributed to reduced diabetes risk. CONCLUSIONS: MetS and some of its components are associated with increased diabetes incidence in persons with IGT in a manner that differed according to DPP intervention. After hyperglycaemia, the most predictive factors for diabetes were baseline hypertriglyceridaemia and both baseline and lifestyle-associated changes in WC. Targeting these cardiometabolic risk factors may help to assess the benefits of interventions that reduce diabetes incidence.

Long-term effects of the Diabetes Prevention Program interventions on cardiovascular risk factors: a report from the DPP Outcomes Study.

AIMS: Whether long-term cardiovascular risk is reduced by the Diabetes Prevention Program interventions is unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term differences in cardiovascular disease risk factors and the use of lipid and blood pressure medications by the original Diabetes Prevention Program intervention group. METHODS: This long-term follow-up (median 10 years, interquartile range 9.0-10.5) of the three-arm Diabetes Prevention Program randomized controlled clinical trial (metformin, intensive lifestyle and placebo), performed on 2766 (88%) of the Diabetes Prevention Program participants (who originally had impaired glucose tolerance), comprised a mean of 3.2 years of randomized treatment, approximately 1-year transition (during which all participants were offered intensive lifestyle intervention) and 5 years follow-up (Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study). During the study, participants were followed in their original groups with their clinical care being provided by practitioners outside the research setting. The study determined lipoprotein profiles and blood pressure and medication use annually. RESULTS: After 10 years' follow-up from Diabetes Prevention Program baseline, major reductions were seen for systolic (-2 to -3) and diastolic (-6 to -6.5 mmHg) blood pressure, and for LDL cholesterol (-0.51 to -0.6 mmol/l) and triglycerides (-0.23 to -0.25 mmol/l) in all groups, with no between-group differences. HDL cholesterol also rose significantly (0.14 to 0.15 mmol/l) in all groups. Lipid (P = 0.01) and blood pressure (P = 0.09) medication use, however, were lower for the lifestyle group during the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study. CONCLUSION: Overall, intensive lifestyle intervention achieved, with less medication, a comparable long-term effect on cardiovascular disease risk factors, to that seen in the metformin and placebo groups.

Femoral-gluteal adiposity is not associated with insulin sensitivity in type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: To quantify and compare associations between femoral-gluteal adiposity and insulin sensitivity in adults with Type 1 diabetes mellitus with adults with normal glucose tolerance. METHODS: Individuals with Type 1 diabetes (n = 28) were recruited from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complication study, a 24-year prospective study of childhood-onset diabetes, and compared cross-sectionally with individuals with normal glucose tolerance (n = 56) of similar age, sex and BMI. Insulin sensitivity was defined as whole-body glucose disposal measured by hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamps. Adiposity was quantified by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS: Individuals with Type 1 diabetes exhibited lower insulin sensitivity (5.8 vs. 8.2 mg min(-1) kg fat-free mass(-1), P < 0.01), lower total fat mass (20.1 vs. 29.0 kg, P < 0.001) and lower proportional leg fat mass (36.0 vs.37.7%, P = 0.03), but similar proportional trunk fat (% trunk fat mass) compared with individuals with normal glucose tolerance. Overall, results from linear regression demonstrated that higher % leg fat mass (P < 0.01) and lower % trunk fat mass (P < 0.01) were independently associated with lower insulin sensitivity after adjustments for age, sex, height, total fat mass (kg) and diabetes status. Higher % leg fat mass was independently associated with higher insulin sensitivity in individuals with normal glucose tolerance (P < 0.01) after similar adjustment; significant associations were not observed in Type 1 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced insulin sensitivity is a prominent feature of Type 1 diabetes and is associated with total and abdominal adiposity. Compared with adults with normal glucose tolerance, leg fat mass does not show any positive association with insulin sensitivity in Type 1 diabetes.

The assessment of clinical distal symmetric polyneuropathy in type 1 diabetes: a comparison of methodologies from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Cohort.

Distal symmetrical polyneuropathy (DSP) is the most common type of diabetic neuropathy, but often difficult to diagnose reliably. We evaluated the cross-sectional association between three point-of-care devices, Vibratron II, NC-stat(®), and Neurometer(®), and two clinical protocols, MNSI and monofilament, in identifying those with DSP, and/or amputation/ulcer/neuropathic pain (AUP), the two outcomes of major concern. This report presents data from 195 type 1 diabetic participants of the Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) Study attending the 18-year examination (2004-2006). Participants with physician-diagnosed DSP, AUP or who were abnormal on the NC-stat, and the Vibratron II, MNSI, and monofilament were older (p<0.05) and had a longer duration of diabetes (p < 0.05). There was no difference by sex for DSP, AUP, or any testing modality, with the exception of NCstat (motor). The Vibratron II and MNSI showed the highest sensitivity for DSP (>87%) and AUP (>80%), whereas the monofilament had the highest specificity (98% DSP, 94% AUP) and positive predictive value (89% DSP, 47% AUP), but lowest sensitivity (20% DSP, 30% AUP). The MNSI also had the highest negative predictive value (83%) and Youden's Index (37%) and currently presents the single best combination of sensitivity and specificity of DSP in type 1 diabetes.

Characterizing sudden death and dead-in-bed syndrome in Type 1 diabetes: analysis from two childhood-onset Type 1 diabetes registries.

AIMS: Type 1 diabetes mellitus increases the risk for sudden unexplained death, generating concern that diabetes processes and/or treatments underlie these deaths. Young (< 50 years) and otherwise healthy patients who are found dead in bed have been classified as experiencing 'dead-in-bed' syndrome. METHODS: We thus identified all unwitnessed deaths in two related registries (the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh and Allegheny County) yielding 1319 persons with childhood-onset (age < 18 years) Type 1 diabetes diagnosed between 1965 and 1979. Cause of death was determined by a Mortality Classification Committee (MCC) of at least two physician epidemiologists, based on the death certificate and additional records surrounding the death. RESULTS: Of the 329 participants who had died, the Mortality Classification Committee has so far reviewed and assigned a final cause of death to 255 (78%). Nineteen (8%) of these were sudden unexplained deaths (13 male) and seven met dead-in-bed criteria. The Mortality Classification Committee adjudicated cause of death in the seven dead-in-bed persons as: diabetic coma (n =4), unknown (n=2) and cardiomyopathy (n=1, found on autopsy). The three dead-in-bed individuals who participated in a clinical study had higher HbA(1c) , lower BMI and higher daily insulin dose compared with both those dying from other causes and those surviving. CONCLUSIONS: Sudden unexplained death in Type 1 diabetes seems to be increased 10-fold and associated with male sex, while dead-in-bed individuals have a high HbA(1c) and insulin dose and low BMI. Although sample size is too small for definitive conclusions, these results suggest specific sex and metabolic factors predispose to sudden unexplained death and dead-in-bed death.

Risk factor associations with clinical distal symmetrical polyneuropathy and various neuropathy screening instruments and protocols in type 1 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether DSP and neuropathy-assessment instruments used by non-physicians have similar risk factors. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: analyses were cross-sectional (n=176). RESULTS: risk factors were similar for DSP and screening devices. CONCLUSIONS: these data support the clinical utility of neuropathy screening devices used by non-physician personnel.

In the absence of renal disease, 20 year mortality risk in type 1 diabetes is comparable to that of the general population: a report from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The FinnDiane Study has reported that mortality in type 1 diabetes is not increased over a 7 year follow-up in the absence of renal disease (RD). Using the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications (EDC) Study population (n = 658) of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes (age <17 years), the present study sought to replicate and expand these findings to a 20 year follow-up (as of 1 January 2008) and examine cause of death by renal status. METHODS: At baseline (1986-1988), mean age and duration of diabetes were 28 and 19 years, respectively. RD was defined as an albumin excretion rate ≥20 µg/min from multiple samples and grouped as microalbuminuria (MA; 20-200 µg/min), overt nephropathy (ON; >200 µg/min), or end stage renal disease (ESRD; dialysis or renal transplantation). RESULTS: At baseline, 311 (47.3%) individuals had RD (MA 21.3%, ON 22.2% and ESRD 3.8%). During a median 20 year follow-up, there were 152 deaths (23.1%). Mortality was 6.2 (95% CI 5.2-7.2) times higher than expected, with standardised mortality ratios of 2.0 (1.2-2.8) for normoalbuminuria (NA); 6.4 (4.4-8.4) for MA; 12.5 (9.5-15.4) for ON; and 29.8 (16.8-42.9) for ESRD. Excluding those (n = 64) with NA who later progressed to RD, no significant excess mortality was observed in the remaining NA group (1.2, 0.5-1.9), whose deaths were largely unrelated to diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: These data confirm the importance of RD, including persistent microalbuminuria, as a marker of mortality risk and suggest that type 1 diabetes patients without renal disease achieve long-term survival comparable to the general population.

Temporal patterns in overweight and obesity in Type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: Time trends in overweight and obesity in the general population have been well documented; however, temporal patterns in Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) have not been thoroughly investigated. We therefore assessed temporal patterns in overweight and obesity and predictors of weight change in 589 individuals from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study, a cohort of childhood-onset T1DM. METHODS: Participants were first seen in 1986-1988, when mean age and diabetes duration were 29 and 20 years, respectively, and biennially thereafter for 18 years. Overweight was defined as 25.0or=30.0 kg/m2. RESULTS: At baseline, the prevalence of overweight and obesity were 28.6% and 3.4%, respectively. After 18 years' follow-up, the prevalence of overweight increased by 47% while the prevalence of obesity increased sevenfold. Seven per cent were on intensive insulin therapy (>or=3 insulin injections per day or on insulin pump) at baseline; by 2004-2007, this was 82%. Predictors of weight change were a higher baseline HbA1c, symptomatic autonomic neuropathy (inversely), overt nephropathy (inversely), and going onto intensive insulin therapy during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate dramatic weight gain in T1DM and underscore the complexity of weight change in this disease.

Does diabetes-related distress explain the presence of depressive symptoms and/or poor self-care in individuals with Type 1 diabetes?

AIMS: To examine the relationship between depressive symptomatology, diabetes-related distress and aspects of diabetes self-care in a cohort of individuals with Type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Individuals with Type 1 diabetes taking part in the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study completed the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) Scale and the Problem Areas in Diabetes (PAID) scale. Self-care was measured by physical activity in the past week and over the previous year, frequency of blood glucose/urine testing, smoking status and alcohol intake. RESULTS: Clinically significant levels of depressive symptomatology (i.e. scores >or= 16) were reported by 14% of the study population on the BDI and by 18% on the CES-D. There were strong correlations between depressive symptoms and diabetes-related distress (PAID scores) and physical activity. Multivariate analyses indicated that depression was independently associated with diabetes-related distress scores and with physical activity, but not with frequency of blood glucose testing. CONCLUSIONS: These findings have implications for clinical practice and treatment of both psychological morbidity and diabetes. There may be significant effects of depression on aspects of diabetes self-care. Further prospective studies are required to confirm these findings.

Progression to microalbuminuria in type 1 diabetes: development and validation of a prediction rule.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Microalbuminuria is common in type 1 diabetes and is associated with an increased risk of renal and cardiovascular disease. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule that estimates the absolute risk of microalbuminuria. METHODS: Data from the European Diabetes Prospective Complications Study (n = 1115) were used to develop the prediction rule (development set). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between potential predictors and progression to microalbuminuria within 7 years. The performance of the prediction rule was assessed with calibration and discrimination (concordance statistic [c-statistic]) measures. The rule was validated in three other diabetes studies (Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications [EDC] study, Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy [FinnDiane] study and Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes [CACTI] study). RESULTS: Of patients in the development set, 13% were microalbuminuric after 7 years. Glycosylated haemoglobin, AER, WHR, BMI and ever smoking were found to be the most important predictors. A high-risk group (n = 87 [8%]) was identified with a risk of progression to microalbuminuria of 32%. Predictions showed reasonable discriminative ability, with c-statistic of 0.71. The rule showed good calibration and discrimination in EDC, FinnDiane and CACTI (c-statistic 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79, respectively). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: We developed and validated a clinical prediction rule that uses relatively easily obtainable patient characteristics to predict microalbuminuria in patients with type 1 diabetes. This rule can help clinicians to decide on more frequent check-ups for patients at high risk of microalbuminuria in order to prevent long-term chronic complications.

Adiposity and mortality in type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: In the general population, adiposity exhibits a J- or U-shaped relationship with mortality; however, in catabolic states this relationship is often inversely linear. We have recently documented an age-independent increase in overweight/obesity in the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study (EDC) of type 1 diabetes (T1D). As intensified insulin therapy (IIT) may promote weight gain, the impact of weight gain in T1D is of importance. We therefore assessed the association of adiposity with mortality in 655 EDC participants during 20 years of follow-up. METHODS: Individuals were categorized as underweight (body mass index (BMI)<20), normal (20< or = BMI <25), overweight (25< or = BMI <30), or obese (BMI > or =30). Cox models were constructed using BMI and covariates at baseline, updated means during follow-up, time variation (reflecting most recent status), and change during adulthood as predictors of mortality. RESULTS: The prevalence of IIT (3+ insulin shots daily and/or pump) increased from 7 to 82%. Overweight increased by 47% and obesity increased sevenfold. There were 146 deaths. In unadjusted models, BMI (modeled continuously) showed a quadratic relationship with mortality (P=0.002, <0.0001 <0.0001 for baseline, updated mean and time-varying models, respectively). However, only in the time-varying model were the obese significantly different from the normal weight, whereas the baseline model showed no differences by BMI category. In both the updated mean and time-varying models, the underweight were at greater risk than were the normal weight (P<0.0001 both models). The nonlinear relationship of adiposity with mortality remained after adjustment for diabetes complications and for biological or socioeconomic/lifestyle risk factors, with the exception of baseline socioeconomic/lifestyle risk factors, in which a linear association emerged. Adjustment for waist circumference eliminated risk in the obese. Finally, weight gain during follow-up was protective. CONCLUSION: The relationship of adiposity with mortality in T1D now seems to resemble that of the general population, albeit with a marked increased risk in those who are underweight.

Changes in glycaemic control and risk of coronary artery disease in type 1 diabetes mellitus: findings from the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study (EDC).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To complete a comparative analysis of studies that have examined the relationship between glycaemia and cardiovascular disease (CVD)/coronary artery disease (CAD) and perform a prospective analysis of the effect of change in glycosylated Hb level on CAD risk in the Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications Study (EDC) of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus (n = 469) over 16 years of two yearly follow-up. METHODS: Measured values for HbA(1) and HbA(1c) from the EDC were converted to the DCCT-standard HbA(1c) for change analyses and the change in HbA(1c) was calculated (final HbA(1c) minus baseline HbA(1c)). CAD was defined as EDC-diagnosed angina, myocardial infarction, ischaemia, revascularisation or fatal CAD after medical record review. RESULTS: The comparative analysis suggested that glycaemia may have a stronger effect on CAD in patients without, than in those with, albuminuria. In EDC, the change in HbA(1c) differed significantly between CAD cases (+0.62 +/- 1.8%) and non-cases (-0.09 +/- 1.9%) and was an independent predictor of CAD. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Discrepant study results regarding the relationship of glycaemia with CVD/CAD may, in part, be related to the prevalence of renal disease. Measures of HbA(1c) change over time show a stronger association with CAD than baseline values.