ABSTRACT
Kenya is among the countries endemic for soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) with over 66 subcounties and over 6 million individuals being at-risk of infection. Currently, the country is implementing mass drug administration (MDA) to all the at-risk groups as the mainstay control strategy. This study aimed to develop and analyze an optimal control (OC) model, from a transmission interruption model, to obtain an optimal control strategy from a mix of three strategies evaluated. The study used the Pontryagin's maximum principle to solve, numerically, the OC model. The analysis results clearly demonstrated that water and sanitation when implemented together with the MDA programme offer the best chances of eliminating these tenacious and damaging parasites. Thus, we advocate for optimal implementation of the combined mix of the two interventions in order to achieve STH elimination in Kenya, and globally, in a short implementation period of less than eight years.
ABSTRACT
Background: Kenya is endemic for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) with over 6 million children in 27 counties currently at-risk. A national school-based deworming programme (NSBDP) was launched in 2012 with a goal to eliminate parasitic worms as a public health problem. This study used model-based geostatistical (MBG) approach to design and analyse the impact of the NSBDP and inform treatment strategy changes. Methods: A cross-sectional study was used to survey 200 schools across 27 counties in Kenya. The study design, school selection and analysis followed the MBG approach which incorporated historical data on treatment, morbidity and environmental covariates to efficiently predict the helminths prevalence in Kenya. Results: Overall, the NSBDP geographic area prevalence for any STH was estimated to sit between 2 % and <10 % with a high predictive probability of >0.999. Species-specific thresholds were between 2 % and <10 % for Ascaris lumbricoides, 0 % to <2 % for hookworm, and 0 % to <2 % for Trichuris trichiura, all with high predictive probability of >0.999. Conclusions: Based on the World Health Organization guidelines, STH treatment requirements can now be confidently refined. Ten counties may consider suspending treatment and implement appropriate surveillance system, while another 10 will require treatment once every two years, and the remaining seven will require treatment once every year.
ABSTRACT
As the world rallies toward the endgame of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) elimination by the year 2030, there is a need for efficient and robust mathematical models that would enable STH programme managers to target the scarce resources and interventions, increase treatment coverage among specific sub-groups of the population, and develop reliable surveillance systems that meet sensitivity and specificity requirements for the endgame of STH elimination. However, the considerable complexities often associated with STH-transmission models underpin the need for specifying a large number of parameters and inputs, which are often available with considerable degree of uncertainty. Additionally, the model may behave counter-intuitive especially when there are non-linearities in multiple input-output relationships. In this study, we performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA), based on a variance decomposition method: extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (eFAST), to a recently developed STH-transmission model in Kenya (an STH endemic country) to; (1) robustly compute sensitivity index (SI) for each parameter, (2) rank the parameters in order of their importance (from most to least influential), and (3) quantify the influence of each parameter, singly and cumulatively, on the model output. The sensitivity analysis (SA) results demonstrated that the model outcome (STH worm burden elimination in the human host) was significantly sensitive to some key parameter groupings: combined effect of improved water source and sanitation (Ï), rounds of treatment offered (τ), efficacy of the drug used during treatment (h), proportion of the adult population treated (ga : akin to community-wide treatment), mortality rate of the mature worms in the human host (µ), and the strength of the -dependence of worm egg production (γ). For STH control programmes to effectively reach the endgame (STH elimination in the entire community), these key parameter groupings need to be targeted since together they contribute to a strategic public health intervention.
