Using Novel Multimethod Evaluation Approaches to Understand Complex Food System Interventions: Insights from a Supply Chain Intervention Intended to Improve Nutrition.

Background: A "food system" approach to improve diet quality by intervening within areas such as food supply chains is gaining prominence. However, evidence of such interventions' impact, and understanding of appropriate methods to evaluate them, is lacking. Objectives: We present an impact evaluation of an intervention that aimed to increase consumption of nutritious foods by supporting food-producing firms in Kenya. In doing so, we demonstrate how multiple methods, including those from other disciplines, can be used to evaluate a complex food systems intervention. Methods: Four methods focused on food-producing firms and their management, including a survey of intervention participants (n = 83 individuals), a "laboratory-in-the-field" experiment (n = 83 individuals), baseline/endline data on firm performance (n = 71 firms), and semistructured interviews (n = 19 firms). Three methods focused on consumers in neighborhoods targeted by a supported firm: a randomized field experiment tested effects of making a supported product exhaustively available on consumers' purchases and consumption (n = 1295 consumers); 3 discrete choice experiments (n = 1295 consumers) tested factors influencing consumers' willingness to pay for foods with relevant characteristics. Results: Among firms, we saw suggestive evidence of increased networking and business relationships, while laboratory-in-the-field experiments indicated the intervention might foster cooperation among participants. Qualitative interviews suggested that the intervention enabled firms to increase production, improve management, increase revenues, and lower costs. Baseline/endline data confirmed a positive effect only on the launch of new products and hiring workers. In the field experiment, consumption of the supported product increased in areas where it was made available relative to a control group, but this did not increase overall consumption of the food type or dietary diversity. Conclusions: Results showed positive signs of the intervention improving firm-level outcomes but limited impact on consumers' diet quality. The evaluation also demonstrates how diverse methods can be used to evaluate complex interventions.

Food values drive Chinese consumers' demand for meat and milk substitutes.

Increasing consumption of alternatives to animal-based food products can have significant implications for the sustainability of global food systems. We utilize consumers' food values to identify the drivers of demand for alternative meat and milk products in China, the world's largest consumer market. Using data from 3015 Chinese consumers, we find that public food values, such as environmental impacts and animal welfare, drive consumers' demand for alternative meat and milk. We estimate that approximately 35% of urban food shoppers constitute the potential market for these products. Plant-based meat alternatives to products with strong consumption dependence, such as pork, must compete on price, while alternatives to products with weak consumption dependence, like milk, are likely to earn market premiums. We estimate that modest consumption of alternative meat and milk products in these markets can improve food system sustainability by lowering China's animal production greenhouse gas emissions by 3.4% in addition to reducing animal slaughtering and potentially decreasing health risks associated with the consumption of animal-based food products.

Right on the money? U.S. dairy farmers' varied understanding of consumer preferences and attitudes towards animal health, welfare and biotechnology.

This Research Communication investigates how well U.S. dairy farmers understand the voting behaviour and willingness to pay of consumers for products with production traits relevant to animal health, welfare and biotechnology. Accurately understanding consumer behaviour is key to making sound production decisions and reducing risks. Comparing survey data with the literature shows that U.S. dairy farmers correctly assess consumer attitudes and behaviour over animal welfare practices like pain-controlled dehorning but could improve knowledge of attitudes towards antibiotic use and novel biotechnologies like gene editing.

Personality traits and preferences for specialty coffee: Results from a coffee shop field experiment.

The market for specialty coffee is growing as consumer preferences for high quality coffee become more complex. Identifying the sources of heterogeneity in consumer preferences for specialty coffee is essential to optimizing producer marketing strategies to ensure they both fully capitalize on and satisfy consumer demand. One source of increasing interest is consumer personality profiles, specifically those categorized by the Big Six personality traits. We use the Midlife Development Inventory to investigate the effect of consumer personality traits on willingness to pay for coffee produced by farmer cooperatives. Results from a field experiment using a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism indicate that, on average, consumers are willing to pay a $1.31 premium for a cup of pour over coffee that was produced by a cooperative member farmer. Consumers exhibiting the extraversion and conscientiousness traits were, on average, willing to pay an even higher premium while those with higher levels of agency had a lower willingness to pay. Results further highlight that sociodemographic characteristics do not always drive consumer purchase decisions and, in the absence of significant sociodemographic influence, intrinsic consumer characteristics like personality traits can better explain preferences.

Evaluating producer preferences and information processing strategies for drought risk management tools in Bangladesh.

We use stated preference data to study farmers' preferences for two alternative strategies to manage drought risks in Bangladesh. A choice experiment on drought tolerant rice varieties and weather index insurance was administered to 2306 farmers. Two overarching preference classes or meso-groups were identified using an equality constrained latent class model, each containing various patterns of attribute non-attendance. Our analysis finds that farmers rely on information processing strategies to simplify risk management tool decisions to mitigate drought risk. Differences in the use of farm inputs, and access to savings mechanisms, both formal and informal, are shown to affect decision making.

Where's the beef? Retail channel choice and beef preferences in Argentina.

Argentinean beef is recognized and demanded internationally. Locally, consumers are often unable to afford certified beef products, and may rely on external cues to determine beef quality. Uncovering demand for beef attributes and marketing them accordingly, may require an understanding of consumers' product purchasing strategies, which involves retailer choice. We develop a framework utilizing latent class analysis to identify consumer groups with different retailer preferences, and separately estimate their demand for beef product attributes. This framework accounts for the interrelationship between consumers' choice of retail outlets and beef product preferences. Our analysis of data from the city of Buenos Aires identifies two groups of consumers, a convenience- (67%) and a service- (33%) oriented group. We find significant differences in demand for beef attributes across these groups, and find that the service oriented group, while not willing to pay for credence attributes, relies on a service-providing retailer-namely a butcher-as a source of product quality assurance.

Estimating demand for perennial pigeon pea in Malawi using choice experiments.

Perennial crops have numerous ecological and agronomic advantages over their annual counterparts. We estimate discrete choice models to evaluate farmers' preferences for perennial attributes of pigeon pea intercropped with maize in central and southern Malawi. Pigeon pea is a nitrogen-fixing leguminous crop, which has the potential to ameliorate soil fertility problems related to continuous maize cultivation, which are common in Southern Africa. Adoption of annual pigeon pea is relatively low but perennial production of pigeon pea may be more appealing to farmers due to some of the ancillary benefits associated with perenniality. We model perennial production of pigeon pea as a function of the attributes that differ between annual and perennial production: lower labor and seed requirements resulting from a single planting with multiple harvests, enhanced soil fertility and higher levels of biomass production. The primary tradeoff associated with perennial pigeon pea intercropped with maize is competition with maize in subsequent years of production. While maize yield is approximately twice as valuable to farmers as pigeon pea yield, we find positive yet heterogeneous demand for perenniality driven by soil fertility improvements and pigeon pea grain yield.

Emerging markets for imported beef in China: Results from a consumer choice experiment in Beijing.

The purpose of this study is to explore emerging markets for imported beef in China by assessing Beijing consumer demand for quality attributes. This study utilizes data from an in-store choice experiment to evaluate consumer willingness-to-pay for select food quality attributes (food safety, animal welfare, Green Food and Organic certification) taking into account country-of-origin information. Our results show that Beijing consumers value food safety information the most, and are willing to pay more for Australian beef products than for US or domestic (Chinese) beef. We explore the various relationships between the quality attributes, find evidence of preference heterogeneity and discuss agribusiness and marketing implications of our findings.