Identification and measurement of intensive economic growth in a Roman imperial province.

A key question in economic history is the degree to which preindustrial economies could generate sustained increases in per capita productivity. Previous studies suggest that, in many preindustrial contexts, growth was primarily a consequence of agglomeration. Here, we examine evidence for three different socioeconomic rates that are available from the archaeological record for Roman Britain. We find that all three measures show increasing returns to scale with settlement population, with a common elasticity that is consistent with the expectation from settlement scaling theory. We also identify a pattern of increase in baseline rates, similar to that observed in contemporary societies, suggesting that this economy did generate modest levels of per capita productivity growth over a four-century period. Last, we suggest that the observed growth is attributable to changes in transportation costs and to institutions and technologies related to socioeconomic interchange. These findings reinforce the view that differences between ancient and contemporary economies are more a matter of degree than kind.

Provisioning an Early City: Spatial Equilibrium in the Agricultural Economy at Angkor, Cambodia.

A dominant view in economic anthropology is that farmers must overcome decreasing marginal returns in the process of intensification. However, it is difficult to reconcile this view with the emergence of urban systems, which require substantial increases in labor productivity to support a growing non-farming population. This quandary is starkly posed by the rise of Angkor (Cambodia, 9th-fourteenth centuries CE), one of the most extensive preindustrial cities yet documented through archaeology. Here, we leverage extensive documentation of the Greater Angkor Region to illustrate how the social and spatial organization of agricultural production contributed to its food system. First, we find evidence for supra-household-level organization that generated increasing returns to farming labor. Second, we find spatial patterns which indicate that land-use choices took transportation costs to the urban core into account. These patterns suggest agricultural production at Angkor was organized in ways that are more similar to other forms of urban production than to a smallholder system. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10816-021-09535-5.

Palm springs on the Rio Grande: Insight into Archaic forager plant use from phytoliths recovered from a Late Holocene alluvial section in northern New Mexico.

In this study we present new evidence from phytolith studies for the presence of Sabal sp. (likely minor), an allochthonous plant, around Tesuque Creek in northern New Mexico during the early part of the Late Holocene, in the vicinity of known Late Archaic hunter-gatherer communities using the area at that time. We analyzed phytoliths from sediments taken from an alluvial section on the east side of Tesuque Creek dating to c. 3600-2400 cal. BP. The phytoliths demonstrated a change over time from a succulent dominated landscape to a shrubby one, with the later introduction of high densities of palmetto phytoliths associated with marshy deposits and adjacent burn levels. This evidence suggests a more diverse resource landscape available to local hunter-gatherer groups than previously understood, and may have implications for the early management of microenvironments, plant communities. This evidence demonstrates the value of phytolith analysis from alluvial sections for understanding human land and plant use practices over time. Our study provides a new perspective on what resources and land use areas were available for Archaic peoples inhabiting the area, and how they may have experimented with managing lesser known types of wild plant resources before the establishment of the triad of crops from Mesoamerica. This opens up new avenues for understanding the landscapes, land use practices, and environmental impacts of pre-agricultural communities in the northern Rio Grande and in other semi-arid environments worldwide.

Diachronic modeling of the population within the medieval Greater Angkor Region settlement complex.

Angkor is one of the world's largest premodern settlement complexes (9th to 15th centuries CE), but to date, no comprehensive demographic study has been completed, and key aspects of its population and demographic history remain unknown. Here, we combine lidar, archaeological excavation data, radiocarbon dates, and machine learning algorithms to create maps that model the development of the city and its population growth through time. We conclude that the Greater Angkor Region was home to approximately 700,000 to 900,000 inhabitants at its apogee in the 13th century CE. This granular, diachronic, paleodemographic model of the Angkor complex can be applied to any ancient civilization.

Cities: Complexity, theory and history.

In recent decades researchers in a variety of disciplines have developed a new "urban science," the central goal of which is to build general theory regarding the social processes underlying urbanization. Much work in urban science is animated by the notion that cities are complex systems. What does it mean to make this claim? Here we adopt the view that complex systems entail both variation and structure, and that their properties vary with system size and with respect to where and how they are measured. Given this, a general framework regarding the social processes behind urbanization needs to account for empirical regularities that are common to both contemporary cities and past settlements known through archaeology and history. Only by adopting an explicitly historical perspective can such fundamental structure be revealed. The identification of shared properties in past and present systems has been facilitated by research traditions that define cities (and settlements more broadly) as networks of social interaction embedded in physical space. Settlement Scaling Theory (SST) builds from these insights to generate predictions regarding how measurable properties of cities and settlements are related to their population size. Here, we focus on relationships between population and area across past settlement systems and present-day world cities. We show that both patterns and variations in these measures are explicable in terms of SST, and that the framework identifies baseline infrastructural area as an important system-level property of urban systems that warrants further study. We also show that predictive theory is helpful even in cases where the data do not conform to model predictions.

Smithian growth in a nonindustrial society.

A defining feature of the contemporary world is economic growth, and the most frequently cited cause is technological change, especially with respect to energy capture and information processing. This framing masks the potential for economic growth in nonindustrial societies, but there is growing evidence for episodes where the material conditions of life did improve in the preindustrial past. Here, we explore a potential mechanism behind these improvements. We use settlement scaling theory to distinguish agglomeration-driven from technology-driven growth, and then we apply this framework to archaeological evidence from the Pre-Hispanic Northern Rio Grande Pueblos of New Mexico, USA. Results suggest that agglomeration-driven or "Smithian" growth was the dominant factor behind improvements in the material conditions of life over time in this society. We also summarize evidence that this growth took place in the context of a stable regional population, declining levels of inequality, and increasingly inclusive social institutions.

Prehistoric mitochondrial DNA of domesticate animals supports a 13th century exodus from the northern US southwest.

The 13th century Puebloan depopulation of the Four Corners region of the US Southwest is an iconic episode in world prehistory. Studies of its causes, as well as its consequences, have a bearing not only on archaeological method and theory, but also social responses to climate change, the sociology of social movements, and contemporary patterns of cultural diversity. Previous research has debated the demographic scale, destinations, and impacts of Four Corners migrants. Much of this uncertainty stems from the substantial differences in material culture between the Four Corners vs. hypothesized destination areas. Comparable biological evidence has been difficult to obtain due to the complete departure of farmers from the Four Corners in the 13th century CE and restrictions on sampling human remains. As an alternative, patterns of genetic variation among domesticated species were used to address the role of migration in this collapse. We collected mitochondrial haplotypic data from dog (Canis lupus familiaris) and turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) remains from archaeological sites in the most densely-populated portion of the Four Corners region, and the most commonly proposed destination area for that population under migration scenarios. Results are consistent with a large-scale migration of humans, accompanied by their domestic turkeys, during the 13th century CE. These results support scenarios that suggest contemporary Pueblo peoples of the Northern Rio Grande are biological and cultural descendants of Four Corners populations.

Population-Area Relationship for Medieval European Cities.

Medieval European urbanization presents a line of continuity between earlier cities and modern European urban systems. Yet, many of the spatial, political and economic features of medieval European cities were particular to the Middle Ages, and subsequently changed over the Early Modern Period and Industrial Revolution. There is a long tradition of demographic studies estimating the population sizes of medieval European cities, and comparative analyses of these data have shed much light on the long-term evolution of urban systems. However, the next step-to systematically relate the population size of these cities to their spatial and socioeconomic characteristics-has seldom been taken. This raises a series of interesting questions, as both modern and ancient cities have been observed to obey area-population relationships predicted by settlement scaling theory. To address these questions, we analyze a new dataset for the settled area and population of 173 European cities from the early fourteenth century to determine the relationship between population and settled area. To interpret this data, we develop two related models that lead to differing predictions regarding the quantitative form of the population-area relationship, depending on the level of social mixing present in these cities. Our empirical estimates of model parameters show a strong densification of cities with city population size, consistent with patterns in contemporary cities. Although social life in medieval Europe was orchestrated by hierarchical institutions (e.g., guilds, church, municipal organizations), our results show no statistically significant influence of these institutions on agglomeration effects. The similarities between the empirical patterns of settlement relating area to population observed here support the hypothesis that cities throughout history share common principles of organization that self-consistently relate their socioeconomic networks to structured urban spaces.

From the primordial soup to self-driving cars: standards and their role in natural and technological innovation.

Standards are specifications to which the elements of a technology must conform. Here, we apply this notion to the biochemical 'technologies' of nature, where objects like DNA and proteins, as well as processes like the regulation of gene activity are highly standardized. We introduce the concept of standards with multiple examples, ranging from the ancient genetic material RNA, to Palaeolithic stone axes, and digital electronics, and we discuss common ways in which standards emerge in nature and technology. We then focus on the question of how standards can facilitate technological and biological innovation. Innovation-enhancing standards include those of proteins and digital electronics. They share common features, such as that few standardized building blocks can be combined through standard interfaces to create myriad useful objects or processes. We argue that such features will also characterize the most innovation-enhancing standards of future technologies.

Demographic and Social Dimensions of the Neolithic Revolution in Southwest Colorado.

Domesticated food production is widely acknowledged as a crucial innovation that led to significant transformations in human demography and social organization. Here, we address demographic and social dimensions of the Neolithic Revolution in the Mesa Verde region of Southwest Colorado. We first propose a new method of dating habitations to one of two phases of the Basketmaker III period (AD 600-725) using relative frequencies of vessel forms in pottery assemblages. Then we adapt this method to new survey and excavation data from Indian Camp Ranch to investigate demographic processes behind the formation of Mesa Verde Pueblo society. Finally, we investigate the distribution of agricultural storage space across Basketmaker III households to investigate the development of private property during this period. Our results indicate that both in-migration and intrinsic growth were involved in the formation of Mesa Verde pueblo society; that agricultural households initially clustered around public architecture but became increasingly dispersed over time; and that household agricultural outputs took the form of a log-normal distribution typical of societies with private property rights. Collectively, these findings provide evidence that private property rights co-evolved with the commitment to agriculture and settled communities in Southwest Colorado, as researchers have suggested for other world areas.

Uniform Probability Density Analysis and Population History in the Northern Rio Grande.

One of the basic challenges facing archaeology is translating surface evidence into population estimates with sufficient chronological resolution for demographic analysis. The problem is especially acute when one is working with sites inhabited across multiple chronological periods and the production curves for pottery types are uafnknown. In this paper I present a Bayesian statistical method which I call uniform probability density analysis that is tailored to this situation. This method combines uniform distributions derived from the local pottery chronology with pottery assemblage data to reconstruct the population history of individual settlements. I also illustrate applications of this method at the site and regional level using data from Cuyamungue and the surrounding Tewa Basin/VEP II New Mexico project area. The results allow one to identify a period of significant population movement corresponding to the period of Tewa ethnogenesis in the 13th century CE.

THE SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL MESA VERDE REGION.

The consequences of climate change vary over space and time. Effective studies of human responses to climatically induced environmental change must therefore sample the environmental diversity experienced by specific societies. We reconstruct population histories from A.D. 600 to 1280 in six environmentally distinct portions of the central Mesa Verde region in southwestern Colorado, relating these to climate-driven changes in agricultural potential. In all but one subregion, increases in maize-niche size led to increases in population size. Maize-niche size is also positively correlated with regional estimates of birth rates. High birth rates continued to accompany high population levels even as productive conditions declined in the A.D. 1200s. We reconstruct prominent imbalances between the maize-niche size and population densities in two subregions from A.D. 1140 to 1180 and from A.D. 1225-1260. We propose that human responses in those subregions, beginning by the mid-A.D. 1200s, contributed to violence and social collapse across the entire society. Our findings are relevant to discussions of how climate change will affect contemporary societies.

Las consecuencias del cambio climático varían a través del tiempo y espacio. Por lo tanto, estudios efectivos de las respuestas humanas al cambio ambiental climáticamente inducido tienen que muestrear la diversidad ambiental experimentada por sociedades específicas. Nosotros reconstruimos historias poblacionales desde 600 hasta 1.200 d.C. en seis porciones ambientalmente distintas de la región central de Mesa Verde, en el suroeste de Colorado, relacionándolas con cambios climáticamente inducidos en el potencial agrícola. En todas menos una de las subregiones, aumentos en la extensión del nicho del maíz llevaron a incrementos en el tamaño poblacional. La extensión del nichodel maíz también está positivamente correlacionada con estimaciones regionales de tasas de natalidad. Las altas tasas de natalidad continuaron acompañando altos niveles poblacionales aún cuando las condiciones productivas declinaron en el 1.200 d.C. Nosotros reconstruimos desbalances destacados entre el tamaño del nicho del maíz y las densidades poblacionales en dos subregiones desde 1.140 a 1.180 años d.C. y desde 1.225 a 1.260 años d.C. Proponemos que, comenzando a mediados del 1.200 d.C., las respuestas humanas en estas subregiones contribuyeron a la violencia y al colapso social a través de toda la sociedad. Nuestros hallazgos son relevantes para las discusiones acerca de cómo el cambio climático afectará a las sociedades contemporáneas.

Settlement scaling and increasing returns in an ancient society.

A key property of modern cities is increasing returns to scale-the finding that many socioeconomic outputs increase more rapidly than their population size. Recent theoretical work proposes that this phenomenon is the result of general network effects typical of human social networks embedded in space and, thus, is not necessarily limited to modern settlements. We examine the extent to which increasing returns are apparent in archaeological settlement data from the pre-Hispanic Basin of Mexico. We review previous work on the quantitative relationship between population size and average settled area in this society and then present a general analysis of their patterns of monument construction and house sizes. Estimated scaling parameter values and residual statistics support the hypothesis that increasing returns to scale characterized various forms of socioeconomic production available in the archaeological record and are found to be consistent with key expectations from settlement scaling theory. As a consequence, these results provide evidence that the essential processes that lead to increasing returns in contemporary cities may have characterized human settlements throughout history, and demonstrate that increasing returns do not require modern forms of political or economic organization.

DNA analysis of ancient dogs of the Americas: identifying possible founding haplotypes and reconstructing population histories.

As dogs have traveled with humans to every continent, they can potentially serve as an excellent proxy when studying human migration history. Past genetic studies into the origins of Native American dogs have used portions of the hypervariable region (HVR) of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) to indicate that prior to European contact the dogs of Native Americans originated in Eurasia. In this study, we summarize past DNA studies of both humans and dogs to discuss their population histories in the Americas. We then sequenced a portion of the mtDNA HVR of 42 pre-Columbian dogs from three sites located in Illinois, coastal British Columbia, and Colorado, and identify four novel dog mtDNA haplotypes. Next, we analyzed a dataset comprised of all available ancient dog sequences from the Americas to infer the pre-Columbian population history of dogs in the Americas. Interestingly, we found low levels of genetic diversity for some populations consistent with the possibility of deliberate breeding practices. Furthermore, we identified multiple putative founding haplotypes in addition to dog haplotypes that closely resemble those of wolves, suggesting admixture with North American wolves or perhaps a second domestication of canids in the Americas. Notably, initial effective population size estimates suggest at least 1000 female dogs likely existed in the Americas at the time of the first known canid burial, and that population size increased gradually over time before stabilizing roughly 1200 years before present.

The pre-history of urban scaling.

Cities are increasingly the fundamental socio-economic units of human societies worldwide, but we still lack a unified characterization of urbanization that captures the social processes realized by cities across time and space. This is especially important for understanding the role of cities in the history of human civilization and for determining whether studies of ancient cities are relevant for contemporary science and policy. As a step in this direction, we develop a theory of settlement scaling in archaeology, deriving the relationship between population and settled area from a consideration of the interplay between social and infrastructural networks. We then test these models on settlement data from the Pre-Hispanic Basin of Mexico to show that this ancient settlement system displays spatial scaling properties analogous to those observed in modern cities. Our data derive from over 1,500 settlements occupied over two millennia and spanning four major cultural periods characterized by different levels of agricultural productivity, political centralization and market development. We show that, in agreement with theory, total settlement area increases with population size, on average, according to a scale invariant relation with an exponent in the range [Formula: see text]. As a consequence, we are able to infer aggregate socio-economic properties of ancient societies from archaeological measures of settlement organization. Our findings, from an urban settlement system that evolved independently from its old-world counterparts, suggest that principles of settlement organization are very general and may apply to the entire range of human history.