Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response.

In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so-called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque health managers and Government during the COVID-19 responses. BMTF is a modelling team, working on different approaches, including stochastic processes, statistical methods and artificial intelligence. Here we describe the efforts and challenges to develop a flexible modeling framework able to describe the dynamics observed for the tested positive cases, including the modelling development steps. The results obtained by a new stochastic SHARUCD model framework are presented. Our models differentiate mild and asymptomatic from severe infections prone to be hospitalized and were able to predict the course of the epidemic, providing important projections on the national health system's necessities during the increased population demand on hospital admissions. Short and longer-term predictions were tested with good results adjusted to the available epidemiological data. We have shown that the partial lockdown measures were effective and enough to slow down disease transmission in the Basque Country. The growth rate [Formula: see text] was calculated from the model and from the data and the implications for the reproduction ratio r are shown. The analysis of the growth rates from the data led to improved model versions describing after the exponential phase also the new information obtained during the phase of response to the control measures. This framework is now being used to monitor disease transmission while the country lockdown was gradually lifted, with insights to specific programs for a general policy of "social distancing" and home quarantining.

[Outbreak of viral parotiditis in a school in Bizkaia, Spain, in 2006]. / Brote de parotiditis vírica en un colegio de Bizkaia en 2006.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of parotiditis have recently been recorded in Spain and in other developed countries. The possible reasons currently under consideration are the low degree of immunization coverage among the populations involved and/or the low degree of effectiveness of the vaccine strains employed. This study describes one outbreak of parotiditis having occurred in Bizkaia and assesses, the effectiveness of the vaccine strains and the usefulness of the diagnostic tests currently used. METHODS: Those cases having compatible clinical symptoms and an epidemiological link within the period under study (February-May 2006) were labeled as cases. Blood samples were taken to study IgM and IgG and saliva for genotype and RNA detection. The immunization status and the strain used were found through the vaccine distribution records. A univariate analysis was conducted on the data and relative risks calculated according to the vaccine strains used. RESULTS: A total of 63 cases were detected, 52 being students from one school. Fifty percent were 9-13 years of age. A total of 88.5% of the cases detected at the school had been properly immunized. The IgM sensitivity was 9%, PCR sensitivity being 37%. The relative risk of those students immunized with an initial dose of Rubini strain as compared to those immunized with Jeryl-Lynn strain was 3.8 (95% CI:2.27-6.49). CONCLUSIONS: The high degree of immunization coverage does not prevent outbreaks from occurring in places having a high degree of exposure. The IgM reveals itself to be sensitive to a very small degree for the diagnosis of parotiditis. It seems necessary that the current immunization strategies and diagnostic methods be reconsidered.