Coral guard crabs.

Adrian Stier and Craig Osenberg introduce Trapeziid crabs, which live in close symbiosis with corals.

A meta-evaluation of the quality of reporting and execution in ecological meta-analyses.

Quantitatively summarizing results from a collection of primary studies with meta-analysis can help answer ecological questions and identify knowledge gaps. The accuracy of the answers depends on the quality of the meta-analysis. We reviewed the literature assessing the quality of ecological meta-analyses to evaluate current practices and highlight areas that need improvement. From each of the 18 review papers that evaluated the quality of meta-analyses, we calculated the percentage of meta-analyses that met criteria related to specific steps taken in the meta-analysis process (i.e., execution) and the clarity with which those steps were articulated (i.e., reporting). We also re-evaluated all the meta-analyses available from Pappalardo et al. [1] to extract new information on ten additional criteria and to assess how the meta-analyses recognized and addressed non-independence. In general, we observed better performance for criteria related to reporting than for criteria related to execution; however, there was a wide variation among criteria and meta-analyses. Meta-analyses had low compliance with regard to correcting for phylogenetic non-independence, exploring temporal trends in effect sizes, and conducting a multifactorial analysis of moderators (i.e., explanatory variables). In addition, although most meta-analyses included multiple effect sizes per study, only 66% acknowledged some type of non-independence. The types of non-independence reported were most often related to the design of the original experiment (e.g., the use of a shared control) than to other sources (e.g., phylogeny). We suggest that providing specific training and encouraging authors to follow the PRISMA EcoEvo checklist recently developed by O'Dea et al. [2] can improve the quality of ecological meta-analyses.

Thermal Traits Vary with Mass and across Populations of the Marsh Periwinkle, Littoraria irrorata.

AbstractPhysiological processes influence how individuals perform in various environmental contexts. The basis of such processes, metabolism, scales allometrically with body mass and nonlinearly with temperature, as described by a thermal performance curve. Past studies of thermal performance curves tend to focus on effects of temperature on a single body size or population, rather than variation in the thermal performance curve across sizes and populations. Here, we estimate intraspecific variation in parameters of the thermal performance curve in the salt marsh gastropod Littoraria irrorata. First, we quantify the thermal performance curve for respiration rate as a function of both temperature and body size in Littoraria and evaluate whether the thermal parameters and body size scaling are interdependent. Next, we quantify how parameters in the thermal performance curve for feeding rate vary between three Littoraria populations that occur along a latitudinal gradient. Our work suggests that the thermal traits describing Littoraria respiration are dependent on body mass and that both the thermal traits and the mass scaling of feeding vary across sites. We found limited evidence to suggest that mass scaling of Littoraria feeding or respiration rates depends on temperature. Variation in the thermal performance curves interacts with the size structure of the Littoraria population to generate divergent population-level responses to temperature. These results highlight the importance of considering variation in population size structure and physiological allometry when attempting to predict how temperature change will affect physiological responses and consumer-resource interactions.

How moonlight shapes environments, life histories, and ecological interactions on coral reefs.

The lunar cycle drives variation in nocturnal brightness. For the epipelagic larvae of coral reef organisms, nocturnal illumination may have widespread and underappreciated consequences. At sea, the onset of darkness coincides with an influx of mesopelagic organisms to shallow water (i.e. 'diel vertical migrants') that include predators (e.g. lanternfishes) and prey (zooplankton) of zooplanktivorous coral reef larvae. Moonlight generally suppresses this influx, but lunar periodicity in the timing and intensity of nocturnal brightness may affect vertically migrating predators and prey differently. A major turnover of species occurs at sunset on the reef, with diurnal species seeking shelter and nocturnal species emerging to hunt. The hunting ability of nocturnal reef-based predators is aided by the light of the moon. Consequently, variation in nocturnal illumination is likely to shape the timing of reproduction, larval development, and settlement for many coral reef organisms. This synthesis underscores the potential importance of trophic linkages between coral reefs and adjacent pelagic ecosystems, facilitated by the diel migrations of mesopelagic organisms and the ontogenetic migrations of coral reef larvae. Research is needed to better understand the effects of lunar cycles on life-history strategies, and the potentially disruptive effects of light pollution, turbidity, and climate-driven changes to nocturnal cloud cover. These underappreciated threats may alter patterns of nocturnal illumination that have shaped the evolutionary history of many coral reef organisms, with consequences for larval survival and population replenishment that could rival or exceed other effects arising from climate change.

Local versus site-level effects of algae on coral microbial communities.

Microbes influence ecological processes, including the dynamics and health of macro-organisms and their interactions with other species. In coral reefs, microbes mediate negative effects of algae on corals when corals are in contact with algae. However, it is unknown whether these effects extend to larger spatial scales, such as at sites with high algal densities. We investigated how local algal contact and site-level macroalgal cover influenced coral microbial communities in a field study at two islands in French Polynesia, Mo'orea and Mangareva. At 5 sites at each island, we sampled prokaryotic microbial communities (microbiomes) associated with corals, macroalgae, turf algae and water, with coral samples taken from individuals that were isolated from or in contact with turf or macroalgae. Algal contact and macroalgal cover had antagonistic effects on coral microbiome alpha and beta diversity. Additionally, coral microbiomes shifted and became more similar to macroalgal microbiomes at sites with high macroalgal cover and with algal contact, although the microbial taxa that changed varied by island. Our results indicate that coral microbiomes can be affected by algae outside of the coral's immediate vicinity, and local- and site-level effects of algae can obscure each other's effects when both scales are not considered.

Lunar rhythms in growth of larval fish.

Growth and survival of larval fishes is highly variable and unpredictable. Our limited understanding of this variation constrains our ability to forecast population dynamics and effectively manage fisheries. Here we show that daily growth rates of a coral reef fish (the sixbar wrasse, Thalassoma hardwicke) are strongly lunar-periodic and predicted by the timing of nocturnal brightness: growth was maximized when the first half of the night was dark and the second half of the night was bright. Cloud cover that obscured moonlight facilitated a 'natural experiment', and confirmed the effect of moonlight on growth. We suggest that lunar-periodic growth may be attributable to light-mediated suppression of diel vertical migrations of predators and prey. Accounting for such effects will improve our capacity to predict the future dynamics of marine populations, especially in response to climate-driven changes in nocturnal cloud cover and intensification of artificial light, which could lead to population declines by reducing larval survival and growth.

An assessment of statistical methods for nonindependent data in ecological meta-analyses.

In ecological meta-analyses, nonindependence among observed effect sizes from the same source paper is common. If not accounted for, nonindependence can seriously undermine inferences. We compared the performance of four meta-analysis methods that attempt to address such nonindependence and the standard random-effect model that ignores nonindependence. We simulated data with various types of within-paper nonindependence, and assessed the standard deviation of the estimated mean effect size and Type I error rate of each method. Although all four methods performed substantially better than the standard random-effects model that assumes independence, there were differences in performance among the methods. A two-step method that first summarizes the multiple observed effect sizes per paper using a weighted mean and then analyzes the reduced data in a standard random-effects model, and a robust variance estimation method performed consistently well. A hierarchical model with both random paper and study effects gave precise estimates but had a higher Type I error rates, possibly reflecting limitations of currently available meta-analysis software. Overall, we advocate the use of the two-step method with a weighted paper mean and the robust variance estimation method as reliable ways to handle within-paper nonindependence in ecological meta-analyses.

Mobility and its sensitivity to fitness differences determine consumer-resource distributions.

An animal's movement rate (mobility) and its ability to perceive fitness gradients (fitness sensitivity) determine how well it can exploit resources. Previous models have examined mobility and fitness sensitivity separately and found that mobility, modelled as random movement, prevents animals from staying in high-quality patches, leading to a departure from an ideal free distribution (IFD). However, empirical work shows that animals with higher mobility can more effectively collect environmental information and better sense patch quality, especially when the environment is frequently changed by human activities. Here, we model, for the first time, this positive correlation between mobility and fitness sensitivity and measure its consequences for the populations of a consumer and its resource. In the absence of consumer demography, mobility alone had no effect on system equilibria, but a positive correlation between mobility and fitness sensitivity could produce an IFD. In the presence of consumer demography, lower levels of mobility prevented the system from approaching an IFD due to the mixing of consumers between patches. However, when positively correlated with fitness sensitivity, high mobility led to an IFD. Our study demonstrates that the expected covariation of animal movement attributes can drive broadly theorized consumer-resource patterns across space and time and could underlie the role of consumers in driving spatial heterogeneity in resource abundance.

Reproductive phenology across the lunar cycle: parental decisions, offspring responses, and consequences for reef fish.

Most organisms reproduce in a dynamic environment, and life-history theory predicts that this can favor the evolution of strategies that capitalize on good times and avoid bad times. When offspring experience these environmental changes, fitness can depend strongly upon environmental conditions at birth and at later life stages. Consequently, fitness will be influenced by the reproductive decisions of parents (i.e., birth date effects) and developmental decisions (e.g., adaptive plasticity) of their offspring. We explored the consequences of these decisions using a highly iteroparous coral reef fish (the sixbar wrasse, Thalassoma hardwicke) and in a system where both parental and offspring environments vary with the lunar cycle. We tested the hypotheses that (1) reproductive patterns and offspring survival vary across the lunar cycle and (2) offspring exhibit adaptive plasticity in development time. We evaluated temporal variation in egg production from February to June 2017, and corresponding larval developmental histories (inferred from otolith microstructure) of successful settlers and surviving juveniles that were spawned during that same period. We documented lunar-cyclic variation in egg production (most eggs were spawned at the new moon). This pattern was at odds with the distribution of birth dates of settlers and surviving juveniles-most individuals that successfully survived to settlement and older stages were born during the full moon. Consequently, the probability of survival across the larval stage was greatest for offspring born close to the full moon, when egg production was at its lowest. Offspring also exhibited plasticity in developmental duration, adjusting their age at settlement to settle during darker portions of the lunar cycle than expected given their birth date. Offspring born near the new moon tended to be older and larger at settlement, and these traits conveyed a strong fitness advantage (i.e., a carryover effect) through to adulthood. We speculate that these effects (1) are shaped by a dynamic landscape of risk and reward determined by moonlight, which differentially influences adults and offspring, and (2) can explain the evolution of extreme iteroparity in sixbars.

Spatial aggregation of aquatic habitats affects oviposition patterns in Aedes mosquitoes.

Colonization, including oviposition, is an important driver of population and community dynamics both within and across habitat patches. Most research has focused on the roles of habitat availability or quality on colonization and its outcomes. However, the spatial distribution of habitats also likely affects these processes. We conducted field experiments in Georgia, USA, using clustered and dispersed arrays of equal numbers of oviposition patches to investigate how patch aggregation influenced oviposition by Aedes mosquitoes. We tested the effects of aggregation on: (1) the total number of eggs an array received, (2) the proportion of patches within an array that received eggs, and (3) the number of eggs per colonized patch. We compared results to predictions from three models (Field of Dreams, Propagule Redirection, and Excess Attraction), which vary in the degree to which arrays attract colonists and apportion those colonists among patches. Clustered arrays received 22% more eggs than dispersed arrays, with clustered patches significantly more likely to receive eggs. At the species level, A. albopictus responded more to clustering than did A. triseriatus. These results are inconsistent with Propagule Redirection, but support the Excess Attraction and Field of Dreams models. Although clustered arrays occupied a relatively small area, they attracted at least as many ovipositing mosquitoes as did dispersed arrays. However, the number of eggs per colonized patch did not differ between clustered and dispersed arrays. Therefore, density dependence among larvae, and hence the production of adult mosquitoes on a per-patch basis, should be similar in dispersed and clustered landscapes.

Habitat-dependent movement rate can determine the efficacy of marine protected areas.

Theoretical studies of marine protected areas (MPAs) suggest that more mobile species should exhibit reduced local effects (defined as the ratio of the density inside vs. outside of the MPA). However, empirical studies have not supported the expected negative relationship between the local effect and mobility. We propose that differential, habitat-dependent movement (i.e., a higher movement rate in the fishing grounds than in the MPA) might explain the disparity between theoretical expectations and empirical results. We evaluate this hypothesis by building two-patch box and stepping-stone models and show that increasing disparity in the habitat-specific movement rates shifts the relationship between the local effect and mobility from negative (the previous theoretical results) to neutral or positive (the empirical pattern). This shift from negative to positive occurs when differential movement offsets recruitment and mortality differences between the two habitats. Thus, local effects of MPAs might be caused by behavioral responses via differential movement rather than by, or in addition to, reductions in mortality. In addition, the benefits of MPAs, in terms of regional abundance and fishing yields, can be altered by the magnitude of differential movement. Thus, our study points to a need for empirical investigations that disentangle the interactions among mobility, differential movement, and protection.

Faster turnover of new soil carbon inputs under increased atmospheric CO2.

Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 frequently stimulate plant inputs to soil, but the consequences of these changes for soil carbon (C) dynamics are poorly understood. Plant-derived inputs can accumulate in the soil and become part of the soil C pool ("new soil C"), or accelerate losses of pre-existing ("old") soil C. The dynamics of the new and old pools will likely differ and alter the long-term fate of soil C, but these separate pools, which can be distinguished through isotopic labeling, have not been considered in past syntheses. Using meta-analysis, we found that while elevated CO2 (ranging from 550 to 800 parts per million by volume) stimulates the accumulation of new soil C in the short term (<1 year), these effects do not persist in the longer term (1-4 years). Elevated CO2 does not affect the decomposition or the size of the old soil C pool over either temporal scale. Our results are inconsistent with predictions of conventional soil C models and suggest that elevated CO2 might increase turnover rates of new soil C. Because increased turnover rates of new soil C limit the potential for additional soil C sequestration, the capacity of land ecosystems to slow the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may be smaller than previously assumed.

When environmental factors become stressors: interactive effects of vermetid gastropods and sedimentation on corals.

Environmental stressors often interact, but most studies of multiple stressors have focused on combinations of abiotic stressors. Here we examined the potential interaction between a biotic stressor, the vermetid snail Ceraesignum maximum, and an abiotic stressor, high sedimentation, on the growth of reef-building corals. In a field experiment, we subjected juvenile massive Porites corals to four treatments: (i) neither stressor, (ii) sedimentation, (iii) vermetids or (iv) both stressors. Unexpectedly, we found no effect of either stressor in isolation, but a significant decrease in coral growth in the presence of both stressors. Additionally, seven times more sediment remained on corals in the presence (versus absence) of vermetids, likely owing to adhesion of sediments to corals via vermetid mucus. Thus, vermetid snails and high sedimentation can interact to drive deleterious effects on reef-building corals. More generally, our study illustrates that environmental factors can combine to have negative interactive effects even when individual effects are not detectable. Such 'ecological surprises' may be easily overlooked, leading to environmental degradation that cannot be anticipated through the study of isolated factors.

Enrichment scale determines herbivore control of primary producers.

Anthropogenic nutrient enrichment stimulates primary production and threatens natural communities worldwide. Herbivores may counteract deleterious effects of enrichment by increasing their consumption of primary producers. However, field tests of herbivore control are often done by adding nutrients at small (e.g., sub-meter) scales, while enrichment in real systems often occurs at much larger scales (e.g., kilometers). Therefore, experimental results may be driven by processes that are not relevant at larger scales. Using a mathematical model, we show that herbivores can control primary producer biomass in experiments by concentrating their foraging in small enriched plots; however, at larger, realistic scales, the same mechanism may not lead to herbivore control of primary producers. Instead, other demographic mechanisms are required, but these are not examined in most field studies (and may not operate in many systems). This mismatch between experiments and natural processes suggests that many ecosystems may be less resilient to degradation via enrichment than previously believed.

Application of a two-pool model to soil carbon dynamics under elevated CO2.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase plant productivity and affect soil microbial communities, with possible consequences for the turnover rate of soil carbon (C) pools and feedbacks to the atmosphere. In a previous analysis (Van Groenigen et al., 2014), we used experimental data to inform a one-pool model and showed that elevated CO2 increases the decomposition rate of soil organic C, negating the storage potential of soil. However, a two-pool soil model can potentially explain patterns of soil C dynamics without invoking effects of CO2 on decomposition rates. To address this issue, we refit our data to a two-pool soil C model. We found that CO2 enrichment increases decomposition rates of both fast and slow C pools. In addition, elevated CO2 decreased the carbon use efficiency of soil microbes (CUE), thereby further reducing soil C storage. These findings are consistent with numerous empirical studies and corroborate the results from our previous analysis. To facilitate understanding of C dynamics, we suggest that empirical and theoretical studies incorporate multiple soil C pools with potentially variable decomposition rates.

Spatial heterogeneity, host movement and mosquito-borne disease transmission.

Mosquito-borne diseases are a global health priority disproportionately affecting low-income populations in tropical and sub-tropical countries. These pathogens live in mosquitoes and hosts that interact in spatially heterogeneous environments where hosts move between regions of varying transmission intensity. Although there is increasing interest in the implications of spatial processes for mosquito-borne disease dynamics, most of our understanding derives from models that assume spatially homogeneous transmission. Spatial variation in contact rates can influence transmission and the risk of epidemics, yet the interaction between spatial heterogeneity and movement of hosts remains relatively unexplored. Here we explore, analytically and through numerical simulations, how human mobility connects spatially heterogeneous mosquito populations, thereby influencing disease persistence (determined by the basic reproduction number R0), prevalence and their relationship. We show that, when local transmission rates are highly heterogeneous, R0 declines asymptotically as human mobility increases, but infection prevalence peaks at low to intermediate rates of movement and decreases asymptotically after this peak. Movement can reduce heterogeneity in exposure to mosquito biting. As a result, if biting intensity is high but uneven, infection prevalence increases with mobility despite reductions in R0. This increase in prevalence decreases with further increase in mobility because individuals do not spend enough time in high transmission patches, hence decreasing the number of new infections and overall prevalence. These results provide a better basis for understanding the interplay between spatial transmission heterogeneity and human mobility, and their combined influence on prevalence and R0.

Optimal sampling strategies for detecting zoonotic disease epidemics.

The early detection of disease epidemics reduces the chance of successful introductions into new locales, minimizes the number of infections, and reduces the financial impact. We develop a framework to determine the optimal sampling strategy for disease detection in zoonotic host-vector epidemiological systems when a disease goes from below detectable levels to an epidemic. We find that if the time of disease introduction is known then the optimal sampling strategy can switch abruptly between sampling only from the vector population to sampling only from the host population. We also construct time-independent optimal sampling strategies when conducting periodic sampling that can involve sampling both the host and the vector populations simultaneously. Both time-dependent and -independent solutions can be useful for sampling design, depending on whether the time of introduction of the disease is known or not. We illustrate the approach with West Nile virus, a globally-spreading zoonotic arbovirus. Though our analytical results are based on a linearization of the dynamical systems, the sampling rules appear robust over a wide range of parameter space when compared to nonlinear simulation models. Our results suggest some simple rules that can be used by practitioners when developing surveillance programs. These rules require knowledge of transition rates between epidemiological compartments, which population was initially infected, and of the cost per sample for serological tests.

Faster decomposition under increased atmospheric CO2 limits soil carbon storage.

Soils contain the largest pool of terrestrial organic carbon (C) and are a major source of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Thus, they may play a key role in modulating climate change. Rising atmospheric CO2 is expected to stimulate plant growth and soil C input but may also alter microbial decomposition. The combined effect of these responses on long-term C storage is unclear. Combining meta-analysis with data assimilation, we show that atmospheric CO2 enrichment stimulates both the input (+19.8%) and the turnover of C in soil (+16.5%). The increase in soil C turnover with rising CO2 leads to lower equilibrium soil C stocks than expected from the rise in soil C input alone, indicating that it is a general mechanism limiting C accumulation in soil.