Emerging role of quantitative imaging (radiomics) and artificial intelligence in precision oncology.

Cancer is a fatal disease and the second most cause of death worldwide. Treatment of cancer is a complex process and requires a multi-modality-based approach. Cancer detection and treatment starts with screening/diagnosis and continues till the patient is alive. Screening/diagnosis of the disease is the beginning of cancer management and continued with the staging of the disease, planning and delivery of treatment, treatment monitoring, and ongoing monitoring and follow-up. Imaging plays an important role in all stages of cancer management. Conventional oncology practice considers that all patients are similar in a disease type, whereas biomarkers subgroup the patients in a disease type which leads to the development of precision oncology. The utilization of the radiomic process has facilitated the advancement of diverse imaging biomarkers that find application in precision oncology. The role of imaging biomarkers and artificial intelligence (AI) in oncology has been investigated by many researchers in the past. The existing literature is suggestive of the increasing role of imaging biomarkers and AI in oncology. However, the stability of radiomic features has also been questioned. The radiomic community has recognized that the instability of radiomic features poses a danger to the global generalization of radiomic-based prediction models. In order to establish radiomic-based imaging biomarkers in oncology, the robustness of radiomic features needs to be established on a priority basis. This is because radiomic models developed in one institution frequently perform poorly in other institutions, most likely due to radiomic feature instability. To generalize radiomic-based prediction models in oncology, a number of initiatives, including Quantitative Imaging Network (QIN), Quantitative Imaging Biomarkers Alliance (QIBA), and Image Biomarker Standardisation Initiative (IBSI), have been launched to stabilize the radiomic features.

A comparison of machine learning models for predicting urinary incontinence in men with localized prostate cancer.

Introduction: Urinary incontinence (UI) is a common side effect of prostate cancer treatment, but in clinical practice, it is difficult to predict. Machine learning (ML) models have shown promising results in predicting outcomes, yet the lack of transparency in complex models known as "black-box" has made clinicians wary of relying on them in sensitive decisions. Therefore, finding a balance between accuracy and explainability is crucial for the implementation of ML models. The aim of this study was to employ three different ML classifiers to predict the probability of experiencing UI in men with localized prostate cancer 1-year and 2-year after treatment and compare their accuracy and explainability. Methods: We used the ProZIB dataset from the Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (Integraal Kankercentrum Nederland; IKNL) which contained clinical, demographic, and PROM data of 964 patients from 65 Dutch hospitals. Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms were applied to predict (in)continence after prostate cancer treatment. Results: All models have been externally validated according to the TRIPOD Type 3 guidelines and their performance was assessed by accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC. While all three models demonstrated similar performance, LR showed slightly better accuracy than RF and SVM in predicting the risk of UI one year after prostate cancer treatment, achieving an accuracy of 0.75, a sensitivity of 0.82, and an AUC of 0.79. All models for the 2-year outcome performed poorly in the validation set, with an accuracy of 0.6 for LR, 0.65 for RF, and 0.54 for SVM. Conclusion: The outcomes of our study demonstrate the promise of using non-black box models, such as LR, to assist clinicians in recognizing high-risk patients and making informed treatment choices. The coefficients of the LR model show the importance of each feature in predicting results, and the generated nomogram provides an accessible illustration of how each feature impacts the predicted outcome. Additionally, the model's simplicity and interpretability make it a more appropriate option in scenarios where comprehending the model's predictions is essential.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction models used in cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is one of the most common cancers in women with an incidence of around 6.5 % of all the cancer in women worldwide. Early detection and adequate treatment according to staging improve the patient's life expectancy. Outcome prediction models might aid treatment decisions, but a systematic review on prediction models for cervical cancer patients is not available. DESIGN: We performed a systematic review for prediction models in cervical cancer following PRISMA guidelines. Key features that were used for model training and validation, the endpoints were extracted from the article and data were analyzed. Selected articles were grouped based on prediction endpoints i.e. Group1: Overall survival, Group2: progression-free survival; Group3: recurrence or distant metastasis; Group4: treatment response; Group5: toxicity or quality of life. We developed a scoring system to evaluate the manuscript. As per our criteria, studies were divided into four groups based on scores obtained in our scoring system, the Most significant study (Score > 60 %); Significant study (60 % > Score > 50 %); Moderately Significant study (50 % > Score > 40 %); least significant study (score < 40 %). A meta-analysis was performed for all the groups separately. RESULTS: The first line of search selected 1358 articles and finally 39 articles were selected as eligible for inclusion in the review. As per our assessment criteria, 16, 13 and 10 studies were found to be the most significant, significant and moderately significant respectively. The intra-group pooled correlation coefficient for Group1, Group2, Group3, Group4, and Group5 were 0.76 [0.72, 0.79], 0.80 [0.73, 0.86], 0.87 [0.83, 0.90], 0.85 [0.77, 0.90], 0.88 [0.85, 0.90] respectively. All the models were found to be good (prediction accuracy [c-index/AUC/R2] >0.7) in endpoint prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction models of cervical cancer toxicity, local or distant recurrence and survival prediction show promising results with reasonable prediction accuracy [c-index/AUC/R2 > 0.7]. These models should also be validated on external data and evaluated in prospective clinical studies.

Development and external validation of multivariate prediction models for erectile dysfunction in men with localized prostate cancer.

While the 10-year survival rate for localized prostate cancer patients is very good (>98%), side effects of treatment may limit quality of life significantly. Erectile dysfunction (ED) is a common burden associated with increasing age as well as prostate cancer treatment. Although many studies have investigated the factors affecting erectile dysfunction (ED) after prostate cancer treatment, only limited studies have investigated whether ED can be predicted before the start of treatment. The advent of machine learning (ML) based prediction tools in oncology offers a promising approach to improve the accuracy of prediction and quality of care. Predicting ED may help aid shared decision-making by making the advantages and disadvantages of certain treatments clear, so that a tailored treatment for an individual patient can be chosen. This study aimed to predict ED at 1-year and 2-year post-diagnosis based on patient demographics, clinical data and patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) measured at diagnosis. We used a subset of the ProZIB dataset collected by the Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (Integraal Kankercentrum Nederland; IKNL) that contained information on 964 localized prostate cancer cases from 69 Dutch hospitals for model training and external validation. Two models were generated using a logistic regression algorithm coupled with Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE). The first predicted ED 1 year post-diagnosis and required 10 pre-treatment variables; the second predicted ED 2 years post-diagnosis with 9 pre-treatment variables. The validation AUCs were 0.84 and 0.81 for 1 year and 2 years post-diagnosis respectively. To immediately allow patients and clinicians to use these models in the clinical decision-making process, nomograms were generated. In conclusion, we successfully developed and validated two models that predicted ED in patients with localized prostate cancer. These models will allow physicians and patients alike to make informed evidence-based decisions about the most suitable treatment with quality of life in mind.

Prediction of Radiotherapy Compliance in Elderly Cancer Patients Using an Internally Validated Decision Tree.

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the available variables and treatment compliance in elderly cancer patients treated with radiotherapy and to establish a decision tree model to guide caregivers in their decision-making process. For this purpose, 456 patients over 74 years of age who received radiotherapy between 2005 and 2017 were included in this retrospective analysis. The outcome of interest was radiotherapy compliance, determined by whether patients completed their scheduled radiotherapy treatment (compliance means they completed their treatment and noncompliance means they did not). A bootstrap (B = 400) technique was implemented to select the best tuning parameters to establish the decision tree. The developed decision tree uses patient status, the Charlson comorbidity index, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance scale, age, sex, cancer type, health insurance status, radiotherapy aim, and fractionation type (conventional fractionation versus hypofractionation) to distinguish between compliant and noncompliant patients. The decision tree's mean area under the curve and 95% confidence interval was 0.71 (0.66-0.77). Although external validation is needed to determine the decision tree's clinical usefulness, its discriminating ability was moderate and it could serve as an aid for caregivers to select the optimal treatment for elderly cancer patients.

Bayesian network structure for predicting local tumor recurrence in rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by surgery.

Background and Purpose: Tumor recurrence, a characteristic of malignant tumors, is the biggest concern for rectal cancer survivors. The epidemiology of the disease calls for a pressing need to improve healthcare quality and patient outcomes. Prediction models such as Bayesian networks, which can probabilistically reason under uncertainty, could assist caregivers with patient management. However, some concerns are associated with the standard approaches to developing these structures in medicine. Therefore, this study aims to compare Bayesian network structures that stem from these two techniques. Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 6754 locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients enrolled in 14 international clinical trials. Local tumor recurrence at 2, 3, and 5-years was defined as the endpoints of interest. Five rectal cancer treating physicians from three countries elicited the expert structure. The algorithmic structure was inferred from the data with the hill-climbing algorithm. Structural performance was assessed with calibration plots and area under the curve values. Results: The area under the curve for the expert structure on the training and validation data was above 0.9 and 0.8, respectively, for all the time points. However, the algorithmic structure had superior predictive performance over the expert structure for all time points of interest. Conclusion: We have developed and internally validated a Bayesian networks structure from experts' opinions, which can predict the risk of a LARC patient developing a tumor recurrence at 2, 3, and 5 years. Our result shows that the algorithmic-based structures are more performant and less interpretable than expert-based structures.

Overall survival nomogram for patients with spinal bone metastases (SBM).

•Demographic features are essential for a more personalize survival prediction of spinal bone metastasis (SBM).•Women have a relatively better survival chance than men before 75 years, while men have better survival after this age.•SBM survival is not dependent on the number of spinal metastases.

Exploring Associations of Preoperative Physical Performance With Postoperative Outcomes After Lumbar Spinal Fusion: A Machine Learning Approach.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the association between preoperative physical performance with short- and long-term postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing lumbar spinal fusion (LSF). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING: University hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Seventy-seven patients (N=77) undergoing elective LSF were preoperatively screened on patient demographics, patient-reported outcome measures, and physical performance measures (movement control, back muscle endurance strength and extensor strength, aerobic capacity, flexibility). INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Associations between preoperative variables and inpatient functional recovery, hospital length of stay (LOS), and 1- to 2-year postoperative pain reduction were explored using random forest analyses assessing the relative influence of the variable on the outcome. RESULTS: Aerobic capacity was associated with fast functional recovery <4 days and prolonged functional recovery >5 days (median z scores=7.1 and 12.0). Flexibility (median z score=4.3) and back muscle endurance strength (median z score=7.8) were associated with fast functional recovery <4 days. Maximum back extensor strength was associated with prolonged functional recovery >5 days (median z score=8.6). Flexibility (median z score=5.1) and back muscle endurance strength (median z score=13.5) were associated with short LOS <5 days. Aerobic capacity (median z score=8.7) was associated with prolonged LOS >7 days. Maximum back extensor strength (median z score=3.8) was associated with 1- to 2-year postoperative pain reduction and aerobic capacity (median z score=2.8) was tentative. CONCLUSIONS: Physical performance measures were associated with both short- and long-term outcomes after LSF. Adding these measures to prediction models predicting outcomes after LSF may increase their accuracy.

From multisource data to clinical decision aids in radiation oncology: The need for a clinical data science community.

Big data are no longer an obstacle; now, by using artificial intelligence (AI), previously undiscovered knowledge can be found in massive data collections. The radiation oncology clinic daily produces a large amount of multisource data and metadata during its routine clinical and research activities. These data involve multiple stakeholders and users. Because of a lack of interoperability, most of these data remain unused, and powerful insights that could improve patient care are lost. Changing the paradigm by introducing powerful AI analytics and a common vision for empowering big data in radiation oncology is imperative. However, this can only be achieved by creating a clinical data science community in radiation oncology. In this work, we present why such a community is needed to translate multisource data into clinical decision aids.

Prediction scoring system based on clinicohematologic parameters for cervical cancer patients undergoing chemoradiation.

OBJECTIVE: A scoring system based on clinicohematologic parameters in cervical cancer patients receiving chemoradiation has not been reported to date. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of clinicohematologic parameters in patients with cervical cancer undergoing chemoradiation and to develop a prediction scoring system based on these results. METHODS: A total of 107 patients who received definitive chemoradiation for cervical cancer were enrolled in this study. The clinical data and hematologic parameters were retrospectively reviewed, and their prognostic value in predicting survival was analyzed. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) and the changes in these hematologic parameters (ΔNLR, ΔPLR, and ΔLMR) between pre- and post-treatment were calculated to determine the specific value of these parameters for predicting patient survival. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 39.9 (range 2.7-114.6) months. The 3-year overall survival rate and progression-free survival rate were 80.9% (95% CI 72.7 to 90.0) and 53.4% (95% CI 44.1 to 64.8), respectively. The median progression-free survival was 67.5 months and the median overall survival was not reached. According to multivariable analysis, a ΔNLR≥0 was significantly associated with decreased progression-free survival (HR=2.91, 95% CI 1.43 to 5.94) and overall survival (HR=3.13, 95% CI 1.18 to 8.27). In addition, age (age <58.5 years; progression-free survival: HR=2.55, 95% CI 1.38 to 4.70; overall survival: HR=4.49, 95% CI 1.78 to 11.33) and the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage (Ⅲ-Ⅳ; progression-free survival: HR=2.49, 95% CI 1.40 to 4.43; overall survival: HR=3.02, 95% CI 1.32 to 6.90) were identified as predictors of poor survival. CONCLUSIONS: Both the age and FIGO stage, as clinical parameters, and the ΔNLR, as a hematologic parameter, were independent prognostic factors for survival for cervical cancer patients treated with chemoradiation. Based on these results, we developed a risk score-based classification system for predicting survival.