Can upwelling regions be potential thermal refugia for marine fishes during climate warming?

Species are expected to migrate to higher latitudes as warming intensifies due to anthropogenic climate change since physiological mechanisms have been adapted to maximize fitness under specific temperatures. However, literature suggests that upwellings could act as thermal refugia under climate warming protecting marine ecosystem diversity. This research aimed to predict the effects of climate warming on commercial and non-commercial fish species reported in official Mexican documents (>200 species) based on their thermal niche to observe if upwellings can act as potential thermal refugia. Present (2000-2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (6.0 and 8.5) scenarios (2040-2050 and 2090-2100) have been considered for this work. Current and future suitability patterns, species distribution, richness, and turnover were calculated using the minimum volume ellipsoids as algorithm. The results in this study highlight that beyond migration to higher latitudes, upwelling regions could protect marine fishes, although the mechanism differed between the innate characteristics of upwellings. Most modeled species (primarily tropical fishes) found refuge in the tropical upwelling in Northern Yucatan. However, the highest warming scenario overwhelmed this region. In contrast, the Baja California region lies within the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. While the area experiences an increase in suitability, the northern regions have a higher upwelling intensity acting as environmental barriers for many tropical species. Conversely, in the southern regions where upwelling is weaker, species tend to congregate and persist even during elevated warming, according to the turnover analysis. These findings suggest that tropicalization in higher latitudes may not be as straightforward as previously assumed. Nevertheless, climate change affects numerous ecosystem features, such as trophic relationships, phenology, and other environmental variables not considered here. In addition, uncertainty still exists about the assumption of increasing intensity of upwelling systems.

Leaf functional traits and ecological niche of Fagus grandifolia and Oreomunnea mexicana in natural forests and plantings as a proxy of climate change.

PREMISE: Functional traits reflect species' responses to environmental variation and the breadth of their ecological niches. Fagus grandifolia and Oreomunnea mexicana have restricted distribution in upper montane cloud forests (1700-2000 m a.s.l.) in Mexico. These species were introduced into plantings at lower elevations (1200-1600 m a.s.l.) that have climates predicted for montane forests in 2050 and 2070. The aim was to relate morphological leaf traits to the ecological niche structure of each species. METHODS: Leaf functional traits (leaf area, specific leaf area [SLA], thickness, and toughness) were analyzed in forests and plantings. Atmospheric circulation models and representative concentration pathways (RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) were used to assess future climate conditions. Trait-niche relationships were analyzed by measuring the Mahalanobis distance (MD) from the forests and the plantings to the ecological niche centroid (ENC). RESULTS: For both species, leaf area and SLA were higher and toughness lower in plantings at lower elevation relative to those in higher-elevation forests, and thickness was similar. Leaf traits varied with distance from sites to the ENC. Forests and plantings have different environmental locations regarding the ENC, but forests are closer (MD 0.34-0.58) than plantings (MD 0.50-0.70) for both species. CONCLUSIONS: Elevation as a proxy for expected future climate conditions influenced the functional traits of both species, and trait patterns related to the structure of their ecological niches were consistent. The use of distances to the ENC is a promising approach to explore variability in species' functional traits and phenotypic responses in optimal versus marginal environmental conditions.

Predicting the dispersal and invasion dynamics of ambrosia beetles through demographic reconstruction and process-explicit modeling.

Evaluating potential routes of invasion of pathogens and vectors of sanitary importance is essential for planning and decision-making at multiple scales. An effective tool are process-explicit models that allow coupling environmental, demographic and dispersal information to evaluate population growth and range dynamics as a function of the abiotic conditions in a region. In this work we simulate multiple dispersal/invasion routes in Mexico that could be taken by ambrosia beetles and a specific symbiont, Harringtonia lauricola, responsible for a severe epiphytic of Lauraceae in North America. We used Xyleborus bispinatus Eichhoff 1868 as a study subject and estimated its demography in the laboratory in a temperature gradient (17, 20, 26, 29, 35 °C), which we then used to parameterize a process-based model to estimate its metapopulation dynamics. The maximum intrinsic growth rate of X. bispinatus is 0.13 with a thermal optimum of 26.2 °C. The models suggest important regions for the establishment and dispersal the states of Veracruz, Chiapas and Oaxaca (high host and secondary vectors diversity), the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (connectivity region), and Michoacán and Jalisco (important avocado plantations). The use of hybrid process-based models is a promising tool to refine the predictions applied to the study of biological invasions and species distributions.

Climatic and soil characteristics account for the genetic structure of the invasive cactus moth Cactoblastis cactorum, in its native range in Argentina.

Background: Knowledge of the physical and environmental conditions that may limit the migration of invasive species is crucial to assess the potential for expansion outside their native ranges. The cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum, is native to South America (Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Brazil) and has been introduced and invaded the Caribbean and southern United States, among other regions. In North America there is an ongoing process of range expansion threatening cacti biodiversity of the genus Opuntia and the commercial profits of domesticated Opuntia ficus-indica. Methods: To further understand what influences the distribution and genetic structure of this otherwise important threat to native and managed ecosystems, in the present study we combined ecological niche modeling and population genetic analyses to identify potential environmental barriers in the native region of Argentina. Samples were collected on the host with the wider distribution range, O. ficus-indica. Results: Significant genetic structure was detected using 10 nuclear microsatellites and 24 sampling sites. At least six genetic groups delimited by mountain ranges, salt flats and wetlands were mainly located to the west of the Dry Chaco ecoregion. Niche modeling supports that this region has high environmental suitability where the upper soil temperature and humidity, soil carbon content and precipitation were the main environmental factors that explain the presence of the moth. Environmental filters such as the upper soil layer may be critical for pupal survival and consequently for the establishment of populations in new habitats, whereas the presence of available hosts is a necessary conditions for insect survival, upper soil and climatic characteristics will determine the opportunities for a successful establishment.

Relationships among cost, citation, and access in journal publishing by an ecology and evolutionary biology department at a U.S. university.

Background: Optimizing access to high-quality scientific journals has become an important priority for academic departments, including the ability to read the scientific literature and the ability to afford to publish papers in those journals. In this contribution, we assess the question of whether institutional investment in scientific journals aligns with the journals where researchers send their papers for publication, and where they serve as unpaid reviewers and editors. Methods: We assembled a unique suite of information about the publishing habits of our Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, including summaries of 3,540 journal publications by 35 faculty members. These data include economic costs of journals to institutions and to authors, benefits to authors in terms of journal prestige and citation rates, and considerations of ease of reading access for individuals both inside and outside the university. This dataset included data on institutional costs, including subscription pricing (rarely visible to scholars), and "investment" by scholars in supporting journals, such as time spent as editors and reviewers. Results: Our results highlighted the complex set of relationships between these factors, and showed that institutional costs often do not match well with payoffs in terms of benefits to researchers (e.g., citation rate, prestige of journal, ease of access). Overall, we advocate for greater cost-benefit transparency to help compare different journals and different journal business models; such transparency would help both researchers and their institutions in investing wisely the limited resources available to academics.

An exhaustive evaluation of modeling ecological niches above species level to predict marine biological invasions.

Identifying the areas of the world with suitable environmental conditions for the establishment of invasive species represents a fundamental basis for preventing their impacts. One of the most widely used tools for this is ecological niche modeling. Nonetheless, this approach may underestimate the specie's physiological tolerances (it's potential niche) since wildlife populations of species usually do not occupy their entire environmental tolerance. Recently, it has been suggested that incorporating occurrences of phylogenetically related species improves the prediction of biological invasions. However, the reproducibility of this technique remains unclear. Here, we evaluated the generality of this protocol by assessing whether the construction of modeling units above species level improves the capacity of niche models to predict the distribution of 26 target marine invasive species. For each, we constructed supraspecific modeling units based on published phylogenies by grouping the native occurrence records of each invasive species with the records of its phylogenetically closest relative. We also considered units at species level, including only the presence of records in the native areas of the target species. We generated ecological niche models for each unit with three modeling methods (minimum volume ellipsoids - MVE, machine learning algorithms - Maxent and a presence-absence method - GLM). In addition, we grouped the 26 target species based on whether or not the species are in environmental pseudo-equilibrium (i.e., it occupies all habitats where it can disperse) and have any geographical or biological constraints. Our results suggest that the construction of supraspecific units improves the predictive capacity of correlative models to estimate the invasion area of our target species. This modeling approach consistently generated models with a higher predictive ability for species in non-environmental pseudo-equilibrium and with geographical constraints.

Complex genetic patterns and distribution limits mediated by native congeners of the worldwide invasive red-eared slider turtle.

Non-native (invasive) species offer a unique opportunity to study the geographical distribution and range limits of species, wherein the evolutionary change driven by interspecific interactions between native and non-native closely related species is a key component. The red-eared slider turtle, Trachemys scripta elegans (TSE), has been introduced and successfully established worldwide. It can coexist with its native congeners T. cataspila, T. venusta and T. taylori in Mexico. We performed comprehensive fieldwork, executed a battery of genetic analyses and applied a novel species distribution modelling approach to evaluate their historical lineage relationships and contemporary population genetic patterns. Our findings support the historical common ancestry between native TSE and non-native (TSEalien ), while also highlighting the genetic differentiation of the exotic lineage. Genetic patterns are associated with their range size/endemism gradient; the microendemic T. taylori showed significant reduced genetic diversity and high differentiation, whereas TSEalien showed the highest diversity and signals of population size expansion. Counter to our expectations, lower naturally occurring distribution overlap and little admixture patterns were found between TSE and its congeners, exhibiting reduced gene flow and clear genetic separation across neighbouring species despite having zones of contact. We demonstrate that these native Trachemys species have distinct climatic niche suitability, probably preventing establishment of and displacement by the TSEalien . Moreover, we found major niche overlap between TSEalien and native species worldwide, supporting our prediction that sites with closer ecological optima to the invasive species have higher establishment risk than those that are closer to the niche-centre of the native species.

Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of Lycoriella Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance.

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

Geographic potential of the world's largest hornet, Vespa mandarinia Smith (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), worldwide and particularly in North America.

The Asian giant hornet (AGH, Vespa mandarinia) is the world's largest hornet, occurring naturally in the Indomalayan region, where it is a voracious predator of pollinating insects including honey bees. In September 2019, a nest of Asian giant hornets was detected outside of Vancouver, British Columbia; multiple individuals were detected in British Columbia and Washington state in 2020; and another nest was found and eradicated in Washington state in November 2020, indicating that the AGH may have successfully wintered in North America. Because hornets tend to spread rapidly and become pests, reliable estimates of the potential invasive range of V. mandarinia in North America are needed to assess likely human and economic impacts, and to guide future eradication attempts. Here, we assess climatic suitability for AGH in North America, and suggest that, without control, this species could establish populations across the Pacific Northwest and much of eastern North America. Predicted suitable areas for AGH in North America overlap broadly with areas where honey production is highest, as well as with species-rich areas for native bumble bees and stingless bees of the genus Melipona in Mexico, highlighting the economic and environmental necessity of controlling this nascent invasion.

Geographic abundance patterns explained by niche centrality hypothesis in two Chagas disease vectors in Latin America.

Ecoepidemiological scenarios for Chagas disease transmission are complex, so vector control measures to decrease human-vector contact and prevent infection transmission are difficult to implement in all geographic contexts. This study assessed the geographic abundance patterns of two vector species of Chagas disease: Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848) and Rhodnius pallescens (Barber, 1932) in Latin America. We modeled their potential distribution using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and calculated distances to their niche centroid by fitting a minimum-volume ellipsoid. In addition, to determine which method would accurately explain geographic abundance patterns, we compared the correlation between population abundance and the distance to the ecological niche centroid (DNC) and between population abundance and Maxent environmental suitability. The potential distribution estimated for T. maculata showed that environmental suitability covers a large area, from Panama to Northern Brazil. R. pallescens showed a more restricted potential distribution, with environmental suitability covering mostly the coastal zone of Costa Rica and some areas in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico, northern Colombia, Acre, and Rondônia states in Brazil, as well as a small region of the western Brazilian Amazon. We found a negative slope in the relationship between population abundance and the DNC in both species. R. pallecens has a more extensive potential latitudinal range than previously reported, and the distribution model for T. maculata corroborates previous studies. In addition, population abundance increases according to the niche centroid proximity, indicating that population abundance is limited by the set of scenopoetic variables at coarser scales (non-interactive variables) used to determine the ecological niche. These findings might be used by public health agencies in Latin America to implement actions and support programs for disease prevention and vector control, identifying areas in which to expand entomological surveillance and maintain chemical control, in order to decrease human-vector contact.

Relationships between population densities and niche-centroid distances in North American birds.

Correlational ecological niche models have seen intensive use and exploration as a means of estimating the limits of actual and potential geographic distributions of species, yet their application to explaining geographic abundance patterns has been debated. We developed a detailed test of this latter possibility based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Correlations between abundances and niche-centroid distances were mostly negative, as per expectations of niche theory and the abundant niche-centre relationship. The negative relationships were not distributed randomly among species: terrestrial, non-migratory, small-bodied, small-niche-breadth and restricted-range species had the strongest negative associations. Distances to niche centroids as estimated from correlational analyses of presence-only data thus offer a unique means by which to infer geographic abundance patterns, which otherwise are enormously difficult to characterise.

Supraspecific units in correlative niche modeling improves the prediction of geographic potential of biological invasions.

BACKGROUND: Biological invasions rank among the most significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. Correlative ecological niche modeling is among the most frequently used tools with which to estimate potential distributions of invasive species. However, when areas accessible to the species across its native distribution do not represent the full spectrum of environmental conditions that the species can tolerate, correlative studies often underestimate fundamental niches. METHODS: Here, we explore the utility of supraspecific modeling units to improve the predictive ability of models focused on biological invasions. Taking into account phylogenetic relationships in correlative ecological niche models, we studied the invasion patterns of three species (Aedes aegypti, Pterois volitans and Oreochromis mossambicus). RESULTS: Use of supraspecific modeling units improved the predictive ability of correlative niche models in anticipating potential distributions of three invasive species. We demonstrated that integrating data on closely related species allowed a more complete characterization of fundamental niches. This approach could be used to model species with invasive potential but that have not yet invaded new regions.

kuenm: an R package for detailed development of ecological niche models using Maxent.

BACKGROUND: Ecological niche modeling is a set of analytical tools with applications in diverse disciplines, yet creating these models rigorously is now a challenging task. The calibration phase of these models is critical, but despite recent attempts at providing tools for performing this step, adequate detail is still missing. Here, we present the kuenm R package, a new set of tools for performing detailed development of ecological niche models using the platform Maxent in a reproducible way. RESULTS: This package takes advantage of the versatility of R and Maxent to enable detailed model calibration and selection, final model creation and evaluation, and extrapolation risk analysis. Best parameters for modeling are selected considering (1) statistical significance, (2) predictive power, and (3) model complexity. For final models, we enable multiple parameter sets and model transfers, making processing simpler. Users can also evaluate extrapolation risk in model transfers via mobility-oriented parity (MOP) metric. DISCUSSION: Use of this package allows robust processes of model calibration, facilitating creation of final models based on model significance, performance, and simplicity. Model transfers to multiple scenarios, also facilitated in this package, significantly reduce time invested in performing these tasks. Finally, efficient assessments of strict-extrapolation risks in model transfers via the MOP and MESS metrics help to prevent overinterpretation in model outcomes.

Assessing sustainability in North America's ecosystems using criticality and information theory.

Sustainability is a key concept in economic and policy debates. Nevertheless, it is usually treated only in a qualitative way and has eluded quantitative analysis. Here, we propose a sustainability index based on the premise that sustainable systems do not lose or gain Fisher Information over time. We test this approach using time series data from the AmeriFlux network that measures ecosystem respiration, water and energy fluxes in order to elucidate two key sustainability features: ecosystem health and stability. A novel definition of ecosystem health is developed based on the concept of criticality, which implies that if a system's fluctuations are scale invariant then the system is in a balance between robustness and adaptability. We define ecosystem stability by taking an information theory approach that measures its entropy and Fisher information. Analysis of the Ameriflux consortium big data set of ecosystem respiration time series is contrasted with land condition data. In general we find a good agreement between the sustainability index and land condition data. However, we acknowledge that the results are a preliminary test of the approach and further verification will require a multi-signal analysis. For example, high values of the sustainability index for some croplands are counter-intuitive and we interpret these results as ecosystems maintained in artificial health due to continuous human-induced inflows of matter and energy in the form of soil nutrients and control of competition, pests and disease.

Predictable invasion dynamics in North American populations of the Eurasian collared dove Streptopelia decaocto.

Species invasions represent a significant dimension of global change yet the dynamics of invasions remain poorly understood and are considered rather unpredictable. We explored interannual dynamics of the invasion process in the Eurasian collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto) and tested whether the advance of the invasion front of the species in North America relates to centrality (versus peripherality) within its estimated fundamental ecological niche. We used ecological niche modelling approaches to estimate the dimensions of the fundamental ecological niche on the Old World distribution of the species, and then transferred that model to the New World as measures of centrality versus peripherality within the niche for the species. Although our hypothesis was that the invasion front would advance faster over more favourable (i.e. more central) conditions, the reverse was the case: the invasion expanded faster in areas presenting less favourable (i.e. more peripheral) conditions for the species as it advanced across North America. This result offers a first view of a predictive approach to the dynamics of species' invasions, and thereby has relevant implications for the management of invasive species, as such a predictive understanding would allow better anticipation of coming steps and advances in the progress of invasions, important to designing and guiding effective remediation and mitigation efforts.

Complex groundwater flow systems as traveling agent models.

Analyzing field data from pumping tests, we show that as with many other natural phenomena, groundwater flow exhibits complex dynamics described by 1/f power spectrum. This result is theoretically studied within an agent perspective. Using a traveling agent model, we prove that this statistical behavior emerges when the medium is complex. Some heuristic reasoning is provided to justify both spatial and dynamic complexity, as the result of the superposition of an infinite number of stochastic processes. Even more, we show that this implies that non-Kolmogorovian probability is needed for its study, and provide a set of new partial differential equations for groundwater flow.