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1.
J Dairy Sci ; 107(5): 3207-3218, 2024 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38101736

ABSTRACT

Heat stress compromises dairy production by decreasing feed intake and milk yield, and it may also alter milk composition and feed efficiency. However, little information is available for evaluating such effects across different levels of heat stress and cows enrolled in heat stress studies. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of heat stress on dry matter intake (DMI), energy-corrected milk (ECM), milk composition, and feed efficiency (kg ECM/kg DMI) and to investigate the relationship between such effects and heat stress intervention and animal characteristics by using meta-analytical approaches. Data from 31 studies (34 trials) fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were used for analysis. Results showed that heat stress decreased DMI, ECM, and milk protein concentration, but did not alter milk fat concentration or feed efficiency. Meta-regression confirmed that such reductions in DMI and ECM were significantly associated with increasing temperature-humidity index (THI). Over the period of heat stress, for each unit increase in THI, DMI and ECM decreased by 4.13% and 3.25%, respectively, in mid-lactation cows. Regression models further revealed the existence of a strong interaction between THI and lactation stage, which partially explained the large heterogeneity in effect sizes of DMI and ECM. The results indicated a need for more research on the relationship between the effect of heat stress and animal characteristics. This study calls for the implementation of mitigation strategies in heat-stressed herds due to the substantial decrease in productivity.


Subject(s)
Cattle Diseases , Heat Stress Disorders , Animals , Cattle , Female , Animal Feed/analysis , Cattle Diseases/metabolism , Diet/veterinary , Eating , Energy Intake , Heat Stress Disorders/metabolism , Heat Stress Disorders/veterinary , Lactation , Milk/metabolism
2.
J Dairy Sci ; 104(7): 8062-8075, 2021 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33814139

ABSTRACT

The development of breeding tools, such as genomic selection and sexed semen, has progressed rapidly in dairy cattle breeding during the past decades. In combination with beef semen, these tools are adopted increasingly at herd level. Dairy crossbreeding is emerging, but the economic and genetic consequences of combining it with the other breeding tools are relatively unknown. We investigated 5 different sexed semen schemes where 0, 50, and 90% of the heifers; 50% of the heifers + 25% of the first-parity cows; and 90% of the heifers + 45% of the first-parity cows were bred to sexed semen. The 5 schemes were combined in scenarios managing pure-breeding or terminal crossbreeding, including genomic testing of all newborn heifers or no testing, and keeping Swedish Red or Swedish Holstein as an initial breed. Thus, 40 scenarios were simulated, combining 2 stochastic simulation models: SimHerd Crossbred (operational returns) and ADAM (genetic returns). The sum of operational and genetic returns equaled the total economic return. Beef semen was used in all scenarios to limit the surplus of replacement heifers. Terminal crossbreeding implied having a nucleus of purebred females, where some were inseminated with semen of the opposite breed. The F1 crossbred females were inseminated with beef semen. The reproductive performance played a role in improving the benefit of any of the tools. The most considerable total economic returns were achieved when all 4 breeding tools were combined. For Swedish Holstein, the highest total economic return compared with a pure-breeding scenario, without sexed semen and genomic test, was achieved when 90% sexed semen was used in heifers and 45% sexed semen was used for first-parity cows combined with genomic test and crossbreeding (+€58, 33% crossbreds in the herd). The highest total economic return for Swedish Red compared with a pure-breeding scenario, without sexed semen and genomic test, was achieved when 90% sexed semen was used in heifers combined with genomic test and crossbreeding (+€94, 46% crossbreds in the herd). Terminal crossbreeding resulted in lower genetic returns across the herd compared with the corresponding pure-breeding scenarios but was compensated by a higher operational return.


Subject(s)
Dairying , Semen , Animals , Cattle/genetics , Female , Genomics , Hybridization, Genetic , Insemination, Artificial/veterinary , Pregnancy , Sex Preselection/veterinary , Sweden
3.
J Dairy Sci ; 104(6): 7195-7209, 2021 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33714586

ABSTRACT

The objective of the study was to evaluate the effect of hygiene measures in automatic milking units on the transmission of 3 mastitis pathogens considered to be mainly or partly transmitted from cow to cow during milking events. Two studies were conducted as within-herd experimental trials in 2 Danish commercial dairy herds (A and B) with automatic milking systems. Interventions to enhance hygiene were implemented on the automatic milking units. The 2 studies evaluated separate interventions. In herd A, the hygiene interventions were manual wash with the Lely foam unit and adjustments on the brush-mediated teat cleaning procedure. In herd B, the hygiene intervention included automatic disinfection spray on the upper surface of the brush motor and daily change of brushes. Composite milk samples were collected longitudinally at 3- or 4-wk intervals from all lactating cows. Additional milk samples were taken from cows entering or leaving the study groups. Milk samples were analyzed with quantitative PCR. A hidden Markov model implemented within a Bayesian framework was used to estimate the transmission probability. For analysis, 701 samples from 156 cows were used for herd A, and 1,349 samples from 390 cows were used for herd B. In the intervention group in herd B, transmission of Streptococcus agalactiae was reduced to 19% (95% posterior credibility interval: 0.00-64%) of the transmission in the control group, whereas transmission of Streptococcus dysgalactiae was reduced to 17% (95% posterior credibility interval: 0.00-85%) of transmission in the control group. This suggests that automatic spray on the upper surface of the brush motor with disinfectant along with daily change of brushes collectively reduced transmission of Strep. agalactiae and Strep. dysgalactiae. Results on Staphylococcus aureus in herd B and results on manual foam cleaning and brush-mediated teat cleaning adjustments in herd A were inconclusive.


Subject(s)
Cattle Diseases , Mastitis, Bovine , Animals , Bayes Theorem , Cattle , Dairying , Female , Hygiene , Lactation , Mastitis, Bovine/prevention & control , Milk , Staphylococcus aureus , Streptococcus , Streptococcus agalactiae
4.
J Dairy Sci ; 104(5): 5988-5997, 2021 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33612214

ABSTRACT

The aim of this observational retrospective cohort study was to identify management procedures that are associated with herd-level eradication of Streptococcus agalactiae in dairy herds. The objective was to compare herds that recovered from Strep. agalactiae with herds that remained infected with Strep. agalactiae on the basis of specific management procedures. Data from the Danish surveillance program for Strep. agalactiae, where all milk delivering dairy herds are tested yearly, were used to identify study herds. One hundred ninety-six herds that were classified in the program as infected with Strep. agalactiae, in both January 2013 and January 2014, were identified as study herds. These were followed until January 2017. One hundred forty-four herds remained infected every year until January 2017. Forty-six herds recovered from Strep. agalactiae after January 2014 (were tested negative continuously after January 2015, January 2016, or January 2017 and remained noninfected in the program from recovery until January 2017). Herd characteristics and management procedures were obtained through the Danish Cattle Database. Herd characteristics included herd size, yield, milking system, and bulk milk somatic cell count (SCC). Management procedures included the proportion of cows culled within 100 d after calving due to mastitis, the extent of diagnoses relative to the extent of mastitis treatments, the proportion of cows treated for mastitis during lactation, the proportion of cows treated for mastitis early in lactation, the proportion of cows treated at dry-off, and the median length of the dry period for cows receiving dry cow treatment. All variables were calculated on herd level. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the association between herd infection status and management procedures. A higher proportion of culling due to mastitis within 100 d from calving was associated with a higher probability of herd-level recovery from Strep. agalactiae in herds with conventional milking system. For example, herds with conventional milking, a bulk milk SCC of 260,000 cells/mL, and 10% early culling due to mastitis had a recovery probability of 0.13, whereas similar herds with 20% early culling due to mastitis had a recovery probability of 0.15. A higher proportion of mastitis treatments within 250 d postcalving was associated with a higher probability of herd-level recovery for herds with a relatively high bulk milk SCC. For example, herds with conventional milking, a bulk milk SCC of 260,000 cells/mL, and 10% lactational mastitis treatments had a recovery probability of 0.12, whereas similar herds with 20% lactational mastitis treatments had a recovery probability of 0.15. Herds with a low bulk milk SCC (<220,000 cells/mL) combined with a low proportion of lactational treatments (<0.2) had a relatively high probability of herd-level recovery (>0.2). Additional variables, including the proportion of dry cow treatments, were not associated with herd-level recovery from Strep. agalactiae.


Subject(s)
Cattle Diseases , Mastitis, Bovine , Animals , Cattle , Cattle Diseases/epidemiology , Cell Count/veterinary , Dairying , Denmark/epidemiology , Female , Lactation , Mastitis, Bovine/epidemiology , Milk , Retrospective Studies , Streptococcus agalactiae
5.
Animal ; 15(1): 100023, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33515989

ABSTRACT

Improved animal health can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity in livestock systems while increasing productivity. Integrated modelling of disease impacts on farm-scale emissions is important in identifying effective health strategies to reduce emissions. However, it requires that modellers understand the pathways linking animal health to emissions and how these might be incorporated into models. A key barrier to meeting this need has been the lack of a framework to facilitate effective exchange of knowledge and data between animal health experts and emissions modellers. Here, these two communities engaged in workshops, online exchanges and a survey to i) identify a comprehensive list of disease-related model parameters and ii) test its application to evaluating models. Fifty-six parameters were identified and proved effective in assessing the potential of farm-scale models to characterise livestock disease impacts on GHG emissions. Easy wins for the emissions models surveyed include characterising disease impacts related to feeding.


Subject(s)
Greenhouse Gases , Animals , Farms , Greenhouse Effect , Greenhouse Gases/analysis , Livestock
8.
Acta Psychiatr Scand ; 141(4): 316-326, 2020 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31977066

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Treatment with thyroid hormones is occasionally used in the management of treatment-resistant depression. However, the evidence supporting this treatment is not fully established. The aim of this study was to systematically review the literature on the effect of adjunctive thyroid hormone in the management of treatment-resistant unipolar depression and to provide a pooled estimate of its efficacy. METHODS: The study is registered with PROSPERO (reg. no. CRD42018108088) and followed the PRISMA guidelines. Searches were carried out on June 24, 2019, in PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO. Each record was screened independently by at least two reviewers. In instances of discrepancies, consensus was reached upon discussion. Pooled efficacy estimates were calculated based on response rates (decrease of ≥50% on the primary outcome measure) using random effect statistics. RESULTS: The search yielded 1355 records. Based on the screening of these records, we identified 10 studies that met the inclusion criteria (total number of patients = 663). The comparison of response to thyroid hormones vs. placebo resulted in an odds ratio of 1.56 (95% CI: 0.50-4.84). Similarly, the comparison of response to thyroid hormones vs. lithium resulted in an odds ratio of 1.91 (95% CI: 0.85-4.26). Thus, adjunctive therapy with thyroid hormones was not superior to placebo or lithium in the management of treatment-resistant unipolar depression. CONCLUSION: According to this review and meta-analysis, there is not sufficient evidence to support the use of adjunctive thyroid hormones for treatment-resistant unipolar depression.


Subject(s)
Depressive Disorder, Major/drug therapy , Depressive Disorder, Treatment-Resistant/drug therapy , Thyroid Hormones/therapeutic use , Antidepressive Agents/therapeutic use , Drug Therapy, Combination , Humans , Lithium Compounds/therapeutic use
10.
J Dairy Sci ; 103(1): 514-528, 2020 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31733860

ABSTRACT

This study simulated the consequences of crossbreeding between Swedish Holstein and Swedish Red on herd dynamics and herd profitability under Swedish conditions. Two base herds were simulated using a stochastic herd simulation model, SimHerd Crossbred. The herds reflected average Swedish conventional and organic herds having purebred Swedish Holstein. For each base herd, 3 breeding strategies were simulated: pure-breeding, 2-breed terminal crossbreeding, and 2-breed rotational crossbreeding. The terminal crossbreeding strategy implied having a nucleus of Swedish Holstein and a proportion of F1 Swedish Red × Swedish Holstein crossbred cows within the same herd. The crossbreds in this herd did not produce replacement heifers but exclusively beef × dairy cross calves. Beef semen was also used in the pure-breeding (10-20% in cows) and the rotational crossbreeding (40% in cows) strategies to retain a limited surplus of replacement heifers. To ensure an adequate number of crossbreds in the terminal crossbreeding strategy, X-sorted sexed semen was used for insemination in all the purebred heifers. The outcome was 67% purebred and 31% F1 crossbreds in the herd. In addition, 31% heterosis was expressed compared with 67% heterosis expressed using a 2-breed rotational crossbreeding strategy. Compared with the pure-breeding strategy, crossbreeding increased the annual contribution margin per cow by €20 to €59, with the rotational crossbreeding strategy creating the largest profitability. The increased profitability was mainly due to improved functional traits, especially fertility. For the conventional production system, the replacement rate was 39.3% in the pure-breeding strategy and decreased to 35.8 and 30.1% in the terminal and rotational crossbreeding strategy, respectively. Similar changes happened in the organic production system. Additionally, the crossbreeding strategies earned €22 to €42 more annually per cow from selling live calves for slaughter due to the extended use of beef semen. Milk production was similar between pure-breeding and terminal crossbreeding, and only decreased 1 to 2% in rotational crossbreeding. These results show that crossbreeding between Swedish Holstein and Swedish Red can be profitable in both conventional and organic Swedish herds using the strategies we have simulated. However, some aspects remain to be investigated, such as the economically optimal breeding strategy, genetic improvement, and transition strategies.


Subject(s)
Cattle , Dairying , Hybridization, Genetic , Animals , Computer Simulation , Dairying/economics , Dairying/methods , Female , Lactation , Male , Models, Biological , Phenotype , Sweden
11.
J Dairy Sci ; 103(2): 1831-1842, 2020 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31864731

ABSTRACT

The main objective of this study was to test the efficiency of a management system combining metabolic clustering of cows based on Fourier-transform mid-infrared (FT-MIR) spectra of milk and targeted treatment of metabolically imbalanced cows with propylene glycol drench. We hypothesized that cows identified in a metabolically imbalanced status during early lactation were associated with subsequent impaired health, reproduction, and production, and that treatment with propylene glycol treatment would improve health, reproduction, and production relatively more in these cows than in control cows. We completed a prospective, randomized controlled trial with 356 early-lactation cows in 2 private dairy herds in Denmark from December 2017 to April 2018. Milk samples of cows were collected before treatment, from 4 to 9 d in milk, and after treatment, from 22 to 27 d in milk. Milk samples were analyzed using FT-MIR spectroscopy. We also measured 4 milk metabolites (ß-hydroxybutyrate, isocitrate, malate, and glutamate) and fat and protein contents. Based on FT-MIR spectra and cluster analyses, cows were clustered into groups of metabolically imbalanced and healthy cows. Within each group, cows were allocated randomly to treatment with propylene glycol (500 mL for 5 d) or no treatment. We analyzed the effect of the treatment on cow-level variables: metabolic cluster, milk metabolites, fat and protein contents, and fat-to-protein ratio at a milk sampling after the treatment. Furthermore, we analyzed daily milk yield, calving to first service interval, and disease occurrence. Results showed only a few effects of propylene glycol treatment and few interactions between treatment and metabolic clusters. We found no significant main effects of propylene glycol treatment in any of these analyses. A negative effect of the imbalanced metabolic cluster was found for the outcome of calving to first service interval for multiparous cows. In conclusion, we found a longer calving to first service interval in metabolically imbalanced cows, but we were not able to demonstrate overall benefits from the applied detection of cows in imbalanced metabolic status in early lactation and follow-up by treatment with propylene glycol.


Subject(s)
Cattle/physiology , Milk/chemistry , Propylene Glycol/pharmacology , Reproduction/drug effects , 3-Hydroxybutyric Acid/analysis , Animals , Denmark , Female , Glutamic Acid/analysis , Isocitrates/analysis , Lactation , Malates/analysis , Milk Proteins/analysis , Prospective Studies , Spectroscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared/veterinary
12.
Acta Psychiatr Scand ; 140(2): 147-157, 2019 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31209866

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Mechanical restraint (MR) is used to prevent patients from harming themselves or others during inpatient treatment. The objective of this study was to investigate whether incident MR occurring in the first 3 days following admission could be predicted based on analysis of electronic health data available after the first hour of admission. METHODS: The dataset consisted of clinical notes from electronic health records from the Central Denmark Region and data from the Danish Health Registers from patients admitted to a psychiatric department in the period from 2011 to 2015. Supervised machine learning algorithms were trained on a randomly selected subset of the data and validated using an independent test dataset. RESULTS: A total of 5050 patients with 8869 admissions were included in the study. One hundred patients were mechanically restrained in the period between one hour and 3 days after the admission. A Random Forest algorithm predicted MR with an area under the curve of 0.87 (95% CI 0.79-0.93). At 94% specificity, the sensitivity was 56%. Among the ten strongest predictors, nine were derived from the clinical notes. CONCLUSIONS: These findings open for the development of an early warning system that may guide interventions to reduce the use of MR.


Subject(s)
Inpatients/psychology , Machine Learning/standards , Mental Disorders/psychology , Restraint, Physical/adverse effects , Case-Control Studies , Denmark/epidemiology , Early Warning Score , Electronic Health Records , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Machine Learning/statistics & numerical data , Male , Mental Disorders/epidemiology , Predictive Value of Tests , Restraint, Physical/methods , Restraint, Physical/statistics & numerical data , Self-Injurious Behavior/prevention & control , Sensitivity and Specificity , Time Factors
13.
Acta Psychiatr Scand ; 139(6): 493-507, 2019 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30937904

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Several studies have investigated whether in utero exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) is associated with increased risk of developing mental or behavioural disorders. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis based on this literature. METHODS: A systematic search of eligible literature in PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO and subsequent meta-analysis was conducted in adherence with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guideline. RESULTS: A total of 20 studies were included in the review, and results from 18 of these were meta-analyzed. We found a statistically significant positive association between in utero exposure to SSRIs and mental or behavioural disorders such as autism spectrum disorder (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.27; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.10-1.47), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (HR = 1.33; 95% CI = 1.06-1.66) and mental retardation (HR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.03-1.91). Confounding by indication was identified in five of seven studies investigating this aspect. CONCLUSION: Exposure to SSRIs in utero is associated with increased risk of developing mental or behavioural disorders. However, these associations do not necessarily reflect a causal relationship since the results included in this meta-analysis are likely affected by residual confounding by indication, which is likely to account for some (or all) of the positive association.


Subject(s)
Attention Deficit Disorder with Hyperactivity/chemically induced , Autism Spectrum Disorder/chemically induced , Prenatal Exposure Delayed Effects/chemically induced , Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors/adverse effects , Depressive Disorder/drug therapy , Evidence-Based Medicine , Female , Humans , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Complications/drug therapy
16.
Equine Vet J ; 51(2): 261-265, 2019 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30071153

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown proximal diffusion of injected drugs in perineural blocks; such diffusion may affect specificity of the nerve block. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effect of a compression bandage applied to the pastern region on proximal diffusion of contrast medium injected over the palmar digital nerves. STUDY DESIGN: Experimental study, randomised cross-over design. METHODS: Radiodense contrast medium was injected over the lateral and medial palmar digital nerves of the left front limb of nine mature horses. Each horse was injected on two separate occasions, once with a 5 cm wide compression bandage applied proximal to the injection site and once without. The order of the two treatments was randomised with a wash-out period between treatments of at least 7 days. Radiographs were obtained at 5, 10, 20 and 30 min and distribution of the contrast column assessed. RESULTS: Proximal distribution of the contrast medium was significantly reduced (P<0.01) with compression bandage. Furthermore, the compression bandage inhibited lymphatic drainage of the injected contrast medium. MAIN LIMITATIONS: Clinical effect of the differences in diffusion length was not assessed. CONCLUSIONS: The compression bandage reduced proximal diffusion and lymphatic drainage of contrast material causing it to stay localised around the injection site. Use of compression bandages could thus result in increased specificity of the nerve block and potentially prolong its effect.


Subject(s)
Compression Bandages/veterinary , Contrast Media/pharmacokinetics , Horses , Iopamidol/analogs & derivatives , Nerve Block/veterinary , Animals , Cross-Over Studies , Female , Forelimb/innervation , Injections/veterinary , Iopamidol/pharmacokinetics , Random Allocation
17.
Vet J ; 240: 37-39, 2018 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30268331

ABSTRACT

Antimicrobial use is a commonly applied proxy for animal health and welfare impairment related to disease status in dairy herds. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between antimicrobial use and the results of systematic clinical examinations for metritis and mastitis. Data was collected from 109 Danish dairy herds over a 5-year period. Statistical analysis demonstrated that the results of vaginal examinations and California mastitis tests on fresh cows were poor predictors of antimicrobial use at the herd level and 52% of the variance in the clinical data could be explained by herd-level factors. The results could be explained by the concept of a treatment threshold within each herd. We suggest that antimicrobial use should be categorised as a decision made by the herd manager rather than an approximation of disease status in the herd.


Subject(s)
Anti-Infective Agents/therapeutic use , Diagnostic Tests, Routine/veterinary , Gynecological Examination/veterinary , Mastitis, Bovine/diagnosis , Animals , California , Cattle , Dairying , Female
18.
Acta Psychiatr Scand ; 138(5): 420-431, 2018 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30168131

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To test the validity and sensitivity of the six-item version (PANSS-6) of the 30-item Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS-30) in treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS). METHOD: Using data from the clozapine phase (2E) of the Clinical Antipsychotic Trials of Intervention Effectiveness (CATIE) study, we investigated the following: (i) The scalability of PANSS-6 and PANSS-30; (ii) The correlation between PANSS-6 and PANSS-30 total scores; (iii) Whether PANSS-6 could identify cross-sectional symptom remission; and (iv) The efficacy of clozapine, olanzapine, risperidone and quetiapine in TRS using the 'speed of change' on PANSS-6 and PANSS-30 (change in total score per week) as outcome measures. RESULTS: We found that (i) only PANSS-6 and not PANSS-30 was scalable; (ii) The correlation between PANSS-6 and PANSS-30 total scores was high (Spearman coefficient: 0.85), (iii) PANSS-6 accurately identified cross-sectional symptom remission as defined by the Andreasen et al. criteria; and (iv) The only antipsychotic that caused improvement (speed of change significantly lower than 0 during the first three months of treatment) was clozapine, both when using PANSS-6 (speed of change: -0.50 points/week; 95%CI: -0.84, -0.17) and PANSS-30 (speed of change: -1.41 points/week; 95%CI: -2.80, -0.02) as outcome measures. CONCLUSION: PANSS-6 validly measures severity, remission and antipsychotic efficacy in TRS.


Subject(s)
Antipsychotic Agents/pharmacology , Clozapine/pharmacology , Outcome Assessment, Health Care/standards , Psychiatric Status Rating Scales/standards , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Olanzapine/pharmacology , Quetiapine Fumarate/pharmacology , Reproducibility of Results , Risperidone/pharmacology , Schizophrenia , Sensitivity and Specificity
20.
Acta Psychiatr Scand ; 137(5): 422-432, 2018 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29498031

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Conversion from unipolar depression (UD) to bipolar disorder (BD) is a clinically important event that should lead to treatment modifications. Unfortunately, recognition of this transition is often delayed. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify predictors of diagnostic conversion from UD to BD. METHOD: Historical prospective cohort study based on 91 587 individuals diagnosed with UD in Danish hospital psychiatry between 1995 and 2016. The association between a series of potential predictors and the conversion from UD to BD during follow-up (702 710 person-years) was estimated by means of Cox regression with death as competing risk. RESULTS: During follow-up, 3910 individuals with UD developed BD. The cumulative incidence of conversion was slightly higher in females (8.7%, 95% CI: 8.2-9.3) compared to males (7.7%, 95% CI: 7.0-8.4). The strongest predictor of conversion from UD to BD was parental history of BD (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 2.60, 95% CI: 2.20-3.07)). Other predictors included psychotic depression at the index UD episode (aHR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.48-2.02), a prior/concomitant non-affective psychosis (aHR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.51-1.99), and in-patient treatment at the index episode (aHR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.63-1.91). CONCLUSION: Diagnostic conversion from UD to BD is predicted by severe depression requiring in-patient treatment, psychotic symptomatology, and parental history of BD.


Subject(s)
Bipolar Disorder/epidemiology , Depressive Disorder/epidemiology , Disease Progression , Disease Susceptibility/epidemiology , Psychotic Disorders/epidemiology , Registries/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Alcoholism/epidemiology , Child , Denmark/epidemiology , Female , Follow-Up Studies , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Recurrence , Risk Factors , Severity of Illness Index , Sex Factors , Young Adult
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