Modeling prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic using Bayesian belief networks and protection motivation theory.

Prevention behaviors are important in mitigating the transmission of COVID-19. The protection motivation theory (PMT) links perceptions of risk and coping ability with the act of adopting prevention behaviors. The goal of this research is to test the application of the PMT in predicting adoption of prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Two research objectives are achieved to explore motivating factors for adopting prevention behaviors. (1) The first objective is to identify variables that are strong predictors of prevention behavior adoption. A data-driven approach is used to train Bayesian belief network (BBN) models using results of a survey of N = 7797 $N=7797$ participants reporting risk perceptions and prevention behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. A large set of models are generated and analyzed to identify significant variables. (2) The second objective is to develop models based on the PMT to predict prevention behaviors. BBN models that predict prevention behaviors were developed using two approaches. In the first approach, a data-driven methodology trains models using survey data alone. In the second approach, expert knowledge is used to develop the structure of the BBN using PMT constructs. Results demonstrate that trust and experience with COVID-19 were important predictors for prevention measure adoption. Models that were developed using the PMT confirm relationships between coping appraisal, threat appraisal, and protective behaviors. Data-driven and PMT-based models perform similarly well, confirming the use of PMT in this context. Predicting adoption of social distancing behaviors provides insight for developing policies during pandemics.

Pressure management in water distribution systems through PRVs optimal placement and settings.

Optimal pressure management is a standard strategy for water loss minimization in water distribution systems (WDS). A pragmatic solution to regulating water pressures and leakage is introducing pressure-reducing valves (PRVs). This paper presents a valve positioning algorithm for optimally deciding the positions and setpoints of PRVs in a WDS. The algorithm derives the hydraulic solution of a WDS as a directed graph, established on the flow directions, using EPANET 2.2 and develops the downstream network supplied by water flowing out of every pipe in the network by applying the depth-first search method. The algorithm later recognizes the pipes leading to the most extended downstream networks, with pressures above the minimum required service pressure, and prioritizes them as the ideal locations for PRV placement. In this way, the proposed algorithm overcomes the limitations of the state-of-the-art in realistically conceptualizing the leakage reduction for optimally positioning the PRVs in WDS. Four studies with varying complexities were selected to demonstrate the algorithm's applicability for deriving pressure management solutions. The solution time for PRV positioning was in seconds for the first three networks and several minutes for the extensive fourth case study. The results corroborate the algorithm's ability to pinpoint the critical nodes with the most increased potential for downstream pressure control and for maintaining the pressure at the least required service pressure level through optimally allocating the PRVs, with acceptable setpoint values, within the pipe network.

Flexible decision-making framework for developing operation protocol for water distribution systems.

Past water distribution systems (WDS) management studies derived operation protocols to maximize WDS reliability by using residual chlorine as the sole surrogate parameter for water quality reliability. Albeit the advancement in mechanistic modeling to examine the WDS water quality, emerging water quality parameters of concern are not yet involved in solving WDS management problems. This paper attempts to overcome this limitation by developing a flexible decision-making framework -integrating EPANET-C, a mechanistic modeling tool for WDS water quality, with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multi-criteria decision-making method - to rank the possible water quality parameter-based operating alternatives (organic matter and residual chlorine levels at the source points) for WDS. The uncertainty analysis was incorporated into the mechanistic modeling using the Monte Carlo method to realize insufficient knowledge about the complex biological and physicochemical interactions inside WDS. Six cases, each ranking the alternatives diversely, were applied to reflect the expert judgment impressions on the AHP outcomes. The consistency of the proposed decision-making framework was verified by deriving the operation protocol for two test networks by making trade-offs between the multiple and conflicting microbiological, chemical, and organoleptic quality criteria. The disinfection by-products formation control and taste and odor problems control emerged as the most critical water quality criteria determining the WDS performance under the operating alternatives examined. Altogether, the obtained results suggested the practicality of adopting a flexible operation protocol to maintain the water quality benchmarks over various plausible WDS performance scenarios, ranging from worst to best.

Making waves: Applying systems biology principles in water distribution systems engineering.

The complexity of modeling water quality variations in water distribution systems (WDS), studied for decades, stems from multiple constraints and variables involved and the complexity of the system behavior. The conventional macroscale-based WDS water quality models are founded on continuum mechanics. In attempts to provide a broad picture of the multi-species interactions, these models overlook the stochasticity corresponding to the reaction mechanisms within the WDS domain. Furthermore, owing to the black-box type modeling adopted in simulating the multi-species interactions, the existing state-of-the-art models have limitations in representing intermediates and/or by-products formation. Accordingly, they remain ineffective in describing the water chemistry-stoichiometric interactions within the WDS domain. Only a radically new modeling approach could overcome the limitations of the macroscale-based approaches and enables analyzing the stochastic WDS mechanisms by keeping the true nature of the system behavior. Stimulated by the metabolic network modeling principles in systems biology, this article outlines the prospect of developing an innovative 'water'bolic network modeling approach to provide a new outlook to the existing WDS water quality modeling research.

Model-based investigation of the formation, transmission, and health risk of perfluorooctanoic acid, a member of PFASs group, in drinking water distribution systems.

Recent studies identified fluoroalkyl amides (FAs) transformation to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) during disinfection as an indirect source of PFASs contamination of drinking water. This paper discerns the position of water disinfection systems (WDSs) as a PFOA exposure pathway. A new mechanistic model incorporating the derived knowledge about the zwitterionic/cationic FAs transformation to PFOA with the unsteady-state hydraulic characteristics of WDSs was developed. The simulation outputs from model application to a WDS from the USA established the significant role of delivery via distribution network in the PFOA formation in drinking water. PFOA exposure risk assessment studies predicted >95% of the system nodes to be at high risk when the existing stringent health-based guideline values are adopted. The 1 to 3 years and 4 to 8 years old age groups were found susceptible to PFOA exposure through drinking water beyond the tolerable limit of 3 ng/kg/day. The model predicted that reducing the chlorine dose from 2±0.2 to 1±0.1 mg/L at the treatment units drops the share of 1 to 3 years old and 4 to 8 years old consumers falling to PFOA exposure from 4.32 to 0.45% and 0.32 to <0.01%, respectively. Besides, 24.9% more, including ∼x223C10% of the consumers of 1 to 3 years old age group, were found exposed to PFOA risks when the organic loading of water was reduced by 60%.

Water quality modeling in sewer networks: Review and future research directions.

Urban sewer networks (SNs) are increasingly facing water quality issues as a result of many challenges, such as population growth, urbanization and climate change. A promising way to addressing these issues is by developing and using water quality models. Many of these models have been developed in recent years to facilitate the management of SNs. Given the proliferation of different water quality models and the promise they have shown, it is timely to assess the state-of-the-art in this field, to identify potential challenges and suggest future research directions. In this review, model types, modeled quality parameters, modeling purpose, data availability, type of case studies and model performance evaluation are critically analyzed and discussed based on a review of 110 papers published between 2010 and 2019. The review identified that applications of empirical and kinetic models dominate those of data-driven models for addressing water quality issues. The majority of models are developed for prediction and process understanding using experimental or field sampled data. While many models have been applied to real problems, the corresponding prediction accuracies are overall moderate or, in some cases, low, especially when dealing with larger SNs. The review also identified the most common issues associated with water quality modeling of SNs and based on these proposed several future research directions. These include the identification of appropriate data resolutions for the development of different SN models, the need and opportunity to develop hybrid SN models and the improvement of SN model transferability.

A framework for real-time disinfection plan assembling for a contamination event in water distribution systems.

Water distribution system contamination events caused by intentional, negligent, or accidental intrusion of biological, chemical, or radioactive contaminants have significant impacts on the health of the populations that it services. Therefore, it is important to have an effective plan that can be readily implemented to minimize the impact of these contamination events. However, limited research has been focused on strategic planning of the decontamination process of the contaminated infrastructure. This paper proposed a framework for assembling a disinfection plan in real-time by (1) partitioning a WDS into a number of district metered areas (DMAs), (2) generating a solution region for each of the DMAs, and (3) assemble an effective decontamination plan using solution region generated. This framework has been applied to three contamination events. The results show that, when planning for the decontamination stage of a contamination event, the use of the proposed framework can (1) significantly reduce the response time, (2) improve the quality of the decontamination plan, and (3) provide a model for optimizing the resource allocation.

A versatile and low-cost open source pipetting robot for automation of toxicological and ecotoxicological bioassays.

In the past decades, bioassays and whole-organism bioassay have become important tools not only in compliance testing of industrial chemicals and plant protection products, but also in the monitoring of environmental quality. With few exceptions, such test systems are discontinuous. They require exposure of the biological test material in small units, such as multiwell plates, during prolonged incubation periods, and do not allow online read-outs. It is mostly due to these shortcomings that applications in continuous monitoring of, e.g., drinking or surface water quality are largely missing. We propose the use of pipetting robots that can be used to automatically exchange samples in multiwell plates with fresh samples in a semi-static manner, as a potential solution to overcome these limitations. In this study, we developed a simple and low-cost, versatile pipetting robot constructed partly using open-source hardware that has a small footprint and can be used for online monitoring of water quality by means of an automated whole-organism bioassay. We tested its precision in automated 2-fold dilution series and used it for exposure of zebrafish embryos (Danio rerio)-a common model species in ecotoxicology-to cadmium chloride and permethrin. We found that, compared to conventional static or semi-static exposure scenarios, effects of the two chemicals in zebrafish embryos generally occurred at lower concentrations, and analytically verified that the increased frequency of media exchange resulted in a greater availability of the chemical. In combination with advanced detection systems this custom-made pipetting robot has the potential to become a valuable tool in future monitoring strategies for drinking and surface water.

A sensitive biomarker for the detection of aquatic contamination based on behavioral assays using zebrafish larvae.

An effective biological early warning system for the detection of water contamination should employ undemanding species that rapidly react to the presence of contaminants in their environment. The demonstrated reaction should be comprehensible and unambiguously evidential of the contamination event. This study utilized 96h post fertilization zebrafish larvae and tested their behavioral response to acute exposure to low concentrations of cadmium chloride (CdCl2) (5.0, 2.5, 1.25, 0.625mg/L) and permethrin (0.05, 0.029, 0.017, 0.01µg/L). We hypothesize that the number of larvae that show advanced trajectories in a group corresponds with water contamination, as the latter triggers avoidance behavior in the organisms. The proportion of advanced trajectories in the control and treated groups during the first minute of darkness was designated as a segregation parameter. It was parametrized and a threshold value was set using one CdCl2 trial and then applied to the remaining CdCl2 and permethrin replicates. For all cases, the method allowed distinguishing between the control and treated groups within two cycles of light: dark. The calculated parameter was statistically significantly different between the treated and control groups, except for the lowest CdCl2 concentration (0.625mg/L) in one replicate. This proof-of-concept study shows the potential of the proposed methodology for utilization as part of a multispecies biomonitoring system.

Network hydraulics inclusion in water quality event detection using multiple sensor stations data.

Event detection is one of the current most challenging topics in water distribution systems analysis: how regular on-line hydraulic (e.g., pressure, flow) and water quality (e.g., pH, residual chlorine, turbidity) measurements at different network locations can be efficiently utilized to detect water quality contamination events. This study describes an integrated event detection model which combines multiple sensor stations data with network hydraulics. To date event detection modelling is likely limited to single sensor station location and dataset. Single sensor station models are detached from network hydraulics insights and as a result might be significantly exposed to false positive alarms. This work is aimed at decreasing this limitation through integrating local and spatial hydraulic data understanding into an event detection model. The spatial analysis complements the local event detection effort through discovering events with lower signatures by exploring the sensors mutual hydraulic influences. The unique contribution of this study is in incorporating hydraulic simulation information into the overall event detection process of spatially distributed sensors. The methodology is demonstrated on two example applications using base runs and sensitivity analyses. Results show a clear advantage of the suggested model over single-sensor event detection schemes.

An integrated logit model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

The problem of contamination event detection in water distribution systems has become one of the most challenging research topics in water distribution systems analysis. Current attempts for event detection utilize a variety of approaches including statistical, heuristics, machine learning, and optimization methods. Several existing event detection systems share a common feature in which alarms are obtained separately for each of the water quality indicators. Unifying those single alarms from different indicators is usually performed by means of simple heuristics. A salient feature of the current developed approach is using a statistically oriented model for discrete choice prediction which is estimated using the maximum likelihood method for integrating the single alarms. The discrete choice model is jointly calibrated with other components of the event detection system framework in a training data set using genetic algorithms. The fusing process of each indicator probabilities, which is left out of focus in many existing event detection system models, is confirmed to be a crucial part of the system which could be modelled by exploiting a discrete choice model for improving its performance. The developed methodology is tested on real water quality data, showing improved performances in decreasing the number of false positive alarms and in its ability to detect events with higher probabilities, compared to previous studies.

Optimal sensor placement for detecting organophosphate intrusions into water distribution systems.

Placement of water quality sensors in a water distribution system is a common approach for minimizing contamination intrusion risks. This study incorporates detailed chemistry of organophosphate contaminations into the problem of sensor placement and links quantitative measures of the affected population as a result of such intrusions. The suggested methodology utilizes the stoichiometry and kinetics of the reactions between organophosphate contaminants and free chlorine for predicting the number of affected consumers. This is accomplished through linking a multi-species water quality model and a statistical dose-response model. Three organophosphates (chlorpyrifos, malathion, and parathion) are tested as possible contaminants. Their corresponding by-products were modeled and accounted for in the affected consumers impact calculations. The methodology incorporates a series of randomly generated intrusion events linked to a genetic algorithm for minimizing the contaminants impact through a sensors system. Three example applications are explored for demonstrating the model capabilities through base runs and sensitivity analyses.

Integrated hydraulic and organophosphate pesticide injection simulations for enhancing event detection in water distribution systems.

As a complementary step towards solving the general event detection problem of water distribution systems, injection of the organophosphate pesticides, chlorpyrifos (CP) and parathion (PA), were simulated at various locations within example networks and hydraulic parameters were calculated over 24-h duration. The uniqueness of this study is that the chemical reactions and byproducts of the contaminants' oxidation were also simulated, as well as other indicative water quality parameters such as alkalinity, acidity, pH and the total concentration of free chlorine species. The information on the change in water quality parameters induced by the contaminant injection may facilitate on-line detection of an actual event involving this specific substance and pave the way to development of a generic methodology for detecting events involving introduction of pesticides into water distribution systems. Simulation of the contaminant injection was performed at several nodes within two different networks. For each injection, concentrations of the relevant contaminants' mother and daughter species, free chlorine species and water quality parameters, were simulated at nodes downstream of the injection location. The results indicate that injection of these substances can be detected at certain conditions by a very rapid drop in Cl2, functioning as the indicative parameter, as well as a drop in alkalinity concentration and a small decrease in pH, both functioning as supporting parameters, whose usage may reduce false positive alarms.

A hybrid evolutionary data driven model for river water quality early warning.

China's fast pace industrialization and growing population has led to several accidental surface water pollution events in the last decades. The government of China, after the 2005 Songhua River incident, has pushed for the development of early warning systems (EWS) for drinking water source protection. However, there are still many weaknesses in EWS in China such as the lack of pollution monitoring and advanced water quality prediction models. The application of Data Driven Models (DDM) such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) has acquired recent attention as an alternative to physical models. For a case study in a south industrial city in China, a DDM based on genetic algorithm (GA) and ANN was tested to increase the response time of the city's EWS. The GA-ANN model was used to predict NH3-N, CODmn and TOC variables at station B 2 h ahead of time while showing the most sensitive input variables available at station A, 12 km upstream. For NH3-N, the most sensitive input variables were TOC, CODmn, TP, NH3-N and Turbidity with model performance giving a mean square error (MSE) of 0.0033, mean percent error (MPE) of 6% and regression (R) of 92%. For COD, the most sensitive input variables were Turbidity and CODmn with model performance giving a MSE of 0.201, MPE of 5% and R of 0.87. For TOC, the most sensitive input variables were Turbidity and CODmn with model performance giving a MSE of 0.101, MPE of 2% and R of 0.94. In addition, the GA-ANN model performed better for 8 h ahead of time. For future studies, the use of a GA-ANN modelling technique can be very useful for water quality prediction in Chinese monitoring stations which already measure and have immediately available water quality data.

Optimal design and operation of booster chlorination stations layout in water distribution systems.

This study describes a new methodology for the disinfection booster design, placement, and operation problem in water distribution systems. Disinfectant residuals, which are in most cases chlorine residuals, are assumed to be sufficient to prevent growth of pathogenic bacteria, yet low enough to avoid taste and odor problems. Commonly, large quantities of disinfectants are released at the sources outlets for preserving minimum residual disinfectant concentrations throughout the network. Such an approach can cause taste and odor problems near the disinfectant injection locations, but more important hazardous excessive disinfectant by-product formations (DBPs) at the far network ends, of which some may be carcinogenic. To cope with these deficiencies booster chlorination stations were suggested to be placed at the distribution system itself and not just at the sources, motivating considerable research in recent years on placement, design, and operation of booster chlorination stations in water distribution systems. The model formulated and solved herein is aimed at setting the required chlorination dose of the boosters for delivering water at acceptable residual chlorine and TTHM concentrations for minimizing the overall cost of booster placement, construction, and operation under extended period hydraulic simulation conditions through utilizing a multi-species approach. The developed methodology links a genetic algorithm with EPANET-MSX, and is demonstrated through base runs and sensitivity analyses on a network example application. Two approaches are suggested for dealing with water quality initial conditions and species periodicity: (1) repetitive cyclical simulation (RCS), and (2) cyclical constrained species (CCS). RCS was found to be more robust but with longer computational time.

A coupled classification - evolutionary optimization model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

This study describes a decision support system, alerts for contamination events in water distribution systems. The developed model comprises a weighted support vector machine (SVM) for the detection of outliers, and a following sequence analysis for the classification of contamination events. The contribution of this study is an improvement of contamination events detection ability and a multi-dimensional analysis of the data, differing from the parallel one-dimensional analysis conducted so far. The multivariate analysis examines the relationships between water quality parameters and detects changes in their mutual patterns. The weights of the SVM model accomplish two goals: blurring the difference between sizes of the two classes' data sets (as there are much more normal/regular than event time measurements), and adhering the time factor attribute by a time decay coefficient, ascribing higher importance to recent observations when classifying a time step measurement. All model parameters were determined by data driven optimization so the calibration of the model was completely autonomic. The model was trained and tested on a real water distribution system (WDS) data set with randomly simulated events superimposed on the original measurements. The model is prominent in its ability to detect events that were only partly expressed in the data (i.e., affecting only some of the measured parameters). The model showed high accuracy and better detection ability as compared to previous modeling attempts of contamination event detection.

Multi-objective evolutionary optimization for greywater reuse in municipal sewer systems.

Sustainable design and implementation of greywater reuse (GWR) has to achieve an optimum compromise between costs and potable water demand reduction. Studies show that GWR is an efficient tool for reducing potable water demand. This study presents a multi-objective optimization model for estimating the optimal distribution of different types of GWR homes in an existing municipal sewer system. Six types of GWR homes were examined. The model constrains the momentary wastewater (WW) velocity in the sewer pipes (which is responsible for solids movement). The objective functions in the optimization model are the total WW flow at the outlet of the neighborhoods sewer system and the cost of the on-site GWR treatment system. The optimization routing was achieved by an evolutionary multi-objective optimization coupled with hydrodynamic simulations of a representative sewer system of a neighborhood located at the coast of Israel. The two non-dominated best solutions selected were the ones having either the smallest WW flow discharged at the outlet of the neighborhood sewer system or the lowest daily cost. In both solutions most of the GWR types chosen were the types resulting with the smallest water usage. This lead to only a small difference between the two best solutions, regarding the diurnal patterns of the WW flows at the outlet of the neighborhood sewer system. However, in the upstream link a substantial difference was depicted between the diurnal patterns. This difference occurred since to the upstream links only few homes, implementing the same type of GWR, discharge their WW, and in each solution a different type of GWR was implemented in these upstream homes. To the best of our knowledge this is the first multi-objective optimization model aimed at quantitatively trading off the cost of local/onsite GW spatially distributed reuse treatments, and the total amount of WW flow discharged into the municipal sewer system under unsteady flow conditions.

Operation of remote mobile sensors for security of drinking water distribution systems.

The deployment of fixed online water quality sensors in water distribution systems has been recognized as one of the key components of contamination warning systems for securing public health. This study proposes to explore how the inclusion of mobile sensors for inline monitoring of various water quality parameters (e.g., residual chlorine, pH) can enhance water distribution system security. Mobile sensors equipped with sampling, sensing, data acquisition, wireless transmission and power generation systems are being designed, fabricated, and tested, and prototypes are expected to be released in the very near future. This study initiates the development of a theoretical framework for modeling mobile sensor movement in water distribution systems and integrating the sensory data collected from stationary and non-stationary sensor nodes to increase system security. The methodology is applied and demonstrated on two benchmark networks. Performance of different sensor network designs are compared for fixed and combined fixed and mobile sensor networks. Results indicate that complementing online sensor networks with inline monitoring can increase detection likelihood and decrease mean time to detection.

A dynamic thresholds scheme for contaminant event detection in water distribution systems.

In this study, a dynamic thresholds scheme is developed and demonstrated for contamination event detection in water distribution systems. The developed methodology is based on a recently published article of the authors (Perelman et al., 2012). Event detection in water supply systems is aimed at disclosing abnormal hydraulic or water quality events by exploring the time series behavior of routine hydraulic (e.g., flow, pressure) and water quality measurements (e.g., residual chlorine, pH, turbidity). While event detection raises alerts to the possibility of an event occurrence, it does not relate to origins, thus an event may be hydraulically-driven, as a consequence of problems like sudden leakages or pump/pipe malfunctions. Most events, however, are related to deliberate, accidental, or natural contamination intrusions. The developed methodology herein is based on off-line and on-line stages. During the off-line stage, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized for tuning five decision variables: positive and negative filters, positive and negative dynamic thresholds, and window size. During the on-line stage, a recursively Bayes' rule is invoked, employing the five decision variables, for real time on-line event detection. Using the same database, the proposed methodology is compared to Perelman et al. (2012), showing considerably improved detection ability. Metadata and the computer code are provided as Supplementary material.

Multi-objective optimization of water quality, pumps operation, and storage sizing of water distribution systems.

A multi-objective methodology utilizing the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm (SPEA2) linked to EPANET for trading-off pumping costs, water quality, and tanks sizing of water distribution systems is developed and demonstrated. The model integrates variable speed pumps for modeling the pumps operation, two water quality objectives (one based on chlorine disinfectant concentrations and one on water age), and tanks sizing cost which are assumed to vary with location and diameter. The water distribution system is subject to extended period simulations, variable energy tariffs, Kirchhoff's laws 1 and 2 for continuity of flow and pressure, tanks water level closure constraints, and storage-reliability requirements. EPANET Example 3 is employed for demonstrating the methodology on two multi-objective models, which differ in the imposed water quality objective (i.e., either with disinfectant or water age considerations). Three-fold Pareto optimal fronts are presented. Sensitivity analysis on the storage-reliability constraint, its influence on pumping cost, water quality, and tank sizing are explored. The contribution of this study is in tailoring design (tank sizing), pumps operational costs, water quality of two types, and reliability through residual storage requirements, in a single multi-objective framework. The model was found to be stable in generating multi-objective three-fold Pareto fronts, while producing explainable engineering outcomes. The model can be used as a decision tool for both pumps operation, water quality, required storage for reliability considerations, and tank sizing decision-making.