ABSTRACT
BackgroundVaccines developed between 2020 - 2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to diminish the severity and prevent deaths due to COVID-19. However, estimates of the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in achieving these goals remain a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalisations averted by vaccination of older adults (above 60 years old) in Brazil. MethodsWe fit a linear model to predict the number of deaths and hospitalisations of older adults as a function of vaccination coverage in this group and casualties in younger adults. We used this model in a counterfactual analysis, simulating alternative scenarios without vaccination or with faster vaccination roll-out. We estimated the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination by computing the difference between hypothetical and realised scenarios. FindingsWe estimated that more than 165,000 individuals above 60 years of age were not hospitalised due to COVID-19 in the first seven months of the vaccination campaign. An additional contingent of 104,000 hospitalisations could have been averted if vaccination had started earlier. We also estimated that more than 58 thousand lives were saved by vaccinations in the period analysed for the same age group and that an additional 47 thousand lives could have been saved had the Brazilian government started the vaccination programme earlier. InterpretationOur estimates provided a lower bound for vaccination impacts in Brazil, demonstrating the importance of preventing the suffering and loss of older Brazilian adults. Once vaccines were approved, an early vaccination roll-out could have saved many more lives, especially when facing a pandemic. FundingThe Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior - Brazil (Finance Code 001 to FMDM and LSF), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico - Brazil (grant number: 315854/2020-0 to MEB, 141698/2018-7 to RLPS, 313055/2020-3 to PIP, 311832/2017-2 to RAK), Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo - Brazil (contract number: 2016/01343-7 to RAK), Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro - Brazil (grant number: E-26/201.277/2021 to LSB) and Inova Fiocruz/Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz - Brazil (grant number: 48401485034116) to LSB, OGC and MGFC. The funding agencies had no role in the conceptualization of the study.