Incidence, prevalence and mortality of autoimmune hepatitis in England 1997-2015. A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There are few population-based studies of the incidence and mortality of autoimmune hepatitis. The burden of the disease and how it has changed over time have not been fully explored. We conducted a population-based cohort study on the incidence and mortality of autoimmune hepatitis in England, 1997-2015. METHODS: From the Clinical Practice Research Datalink we included 882 patients diagnosed with autoimmune hepatitis in England, 1997-2015. The patients were followed through 2015, and we calculated the sex- and age-standardized incidence and prevalence of autoimmune hepatitis. We examined variation in incidence by sex, age, calendar year, geographical region and socioeconomic status, and incidence rate ratios were calculated with Poisson regression. We calculated all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: The overall standardized incidence rate of autoimmune hepatitis was 2.08 (95% confidence interval 1.94-2.22) per 100,000 population per year, higher in women, higher in older age and independent of region and socioeconomic status. From 1997 to 2015 the incidence doubled from 1.27 (95% confidence interval 0.51-2.02) to 2.56 (95% confidence interval 1.79-3.33) per 100,000 population per year. The 10-year cumulative all-cause mortality was 31.9% (95% confidence interval 27.6-36.5), and the 10-year cumulative liver-related mortality, including hepatocellular carcinoma was ~10.5%. CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study showed that the incidence of autoimmune hepatitis doubled over an eighteen-year period. The incidence was particularly high in older women and was similar across all regions of England and independent of socioeconomic status. Patients with autoimmune hepatitis had a high mortality.

GP incentives to design hypertension and atrial fibrillation local quality-improvement schemes: a controlled before-after study in UK primary care.

BACKGROUND: Financial incentives in the UK such as the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) reward GP surgeries for achievement of nationally defined targets. These have shown mixed results, with weak evidence for some measures, but also possible unintended negative effects. AIM: To look at the effects of a local intervention for atrial fibrillation (AF) and hypertension, with surgeries rewarded financially for work, including appointing designated practice leads, attendance at peer review workshops, and producing their own protocols. DESIGN AND SETTING: A controlled before-after study comparing surgery performance measures in UK primary care. METHOD: This study used published QOF data to analyse changes from baseline in mean scores per surgery relating to AF and hypertension prevalence and management at T1 (12 months) and T2 (24 months) for the intervention group, which consisted of all 58 surgeries in East Lancashire Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG), compared to the control group, which consisted of all other surgeries in north-west England. RESULTS: There was a small acceleration between T0 (baseline) and T2 in recorded prevalence of hypertension in the intervention group compared to the controls, difference 0.29% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.05 to 0.53), P = 0.017, but AF prevalence did not increase more in the intervention group. Improvement in quality of management of AF was significantly better in the intervention group, difference 3.24% (95% CI = 1.37 to 5.12), P = 0.001. CONCLUSION: This intervention improved diagnosis rates of hypertension but not AF, though it did improve quality of AF management. It indicates that funded time to develop quality-improvement measures targeted at a local population and involving peer support can engage staff and have the potential to improve quality.

Healthcare Utilisation, Morbidities and Alcohol Use Monitoring Prior to Alcoholic Psychosis Diagnosis.

AIMS: The aim of this study was to describe healthcare utilisation, morbidities and monitoring of alcohol use in patients prior to a diagnosis of alcoholic psychosis in order to inform the early identification of patients at risk. METHODS: Using linked general practice and hospitalisation data in England (April 1997 to June 2014), we identified 1731 individuals (≥18 years) with a clinical recorded diagnosis of alcoholic psychosis and 17,310 matched controls without the disorder, we examined all prior general practitioner (family doctor) visits, hospitalisations, medically recorded morbidities and alcohol assessment/interventions records. Poisson regression models were used to compare rates of healthcare utilisation in people with alcoholic psychosis to those without. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between alcoholic psychosis and prior morbidities. RESULTS: Patients with alcoholic psychosis showed increased levels of healthcare utilisation at least 5 years prior to their diagnosis. The most common reasons for prior healthcare visits were seizures and injuries and there was >4-fold higher rate of seizures, unintentional injuries and self-harm incidents among these patients up to 10 years prior to diagnosis, compared to the control population. A high proportion (78%) of patients had their alcohol consumption recorded, 50% had a record of heavy drinking but only one in five had any evidence of receiving an alcohol-related intervention. CONCLUSION: Patients present more often with seizures and injuries than the general population several years prior to a diagnosis of alcoholic psychosis. These visits represent opportunities for preventive action and imply that we may be missing opportunities to intervene.

Hip fracture risk in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis: A population-based study using English and Danish data.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cirrhosis, the prevalence of which is increasing, is a risk factor for osteoporosis and fractures. However, little is known of the actual risk of hip fractures in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Using linked primary and secondary care data from the English and Danish nationwide registries, we quantified the hip fracture risk in two national cohorts of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. METHODS: We followed 3,706 English and 17,779 Danish patients with a diagnosis of alcoholic cirrhosis, and we identified matched controls from the general populations. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) of hip fracture for patients vs. controls, adjusted for age, sex and comorbidity. RESULTS: The five-year hip fracture risk was raised both in England (2.9% vs. 0.8% for controls) and Denmark (4.6% vs. 0.9% for controls). With confounder adjustment, patients with cirrhosis had fivefold (adjusted HR 5.5; 95% CI 4.3-6.9), and 8.5-fold (adjusted HR 8.5; 95% CI 7.8-9.3) increased rates of hip fracture, in England and Denmark, respectively. This association between alcoholic cirrhosis and risk of hip fracture showed significant interaction with age (p <0.001), being stronger in younger age groups (under 45 years, HR 17.9 and 16.6 for English and Danish patients, respectively) than in patients over 75 years (HR 2.1 and 2.9, respectively). In patients with alcoholic cirrhosis, 30-day mortality following a hip fracture was 11.1% in England and 10.0% in Denmark, giving age-adjusted post-fracture mortality rate ratios of 2.8(95% CI 1.9-3.9) and 2.0(95% CI 1.5-2.7), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with alcoholic cirrhosis have a markedly increased risk of hip fracture and post-hip fracture mortality compared with the general population. These findings support the need for more effort towards fracture prevention in this population, to benefit individuals and reduce the societal burden. LAY SUMMARY: Alcoholic cirrhosis creates a large public health burden and is a risk factor for bone fractures. Based on data from England and Denmark, we found that hip fractures occur more than five times more frequently in people with alcoholic cirrhosis than in people without the disease. Additionally, the aftermath of the hip fracture is severe, such that up to 11% of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis die within 30 days after their hip fracture. These results suggest that efforts directed towards fracture prevention in people with alcoholic cirrhosis could be beneficial.

Alcohol-attributable healthcare attendances up to 10 years prior to diagnosis of alcoholic cirrhosis: a population based case-control study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cirrhosis because of alcohol could be avoided if drinking behaviour could be altered earlier in the disease course. Our aim was to quantify the burden of morbidities in patients prior to alcoholic cirrhosis diagnosis, as this may inform the earlier identification of people at high risk for targeted interventions. METHODS: We carried out a case-control study using 2479 incident cases of alcoholic cirrhosis and 24 790 controls identified from 357 primary and secondary care centres in England. We assessed the prevalence of morbidities that are partly attributable to alcohol (namely malignant neoplasms, diabetes, epilepsy, injuries, cardiovascular and digestive diseases) prior to alcoholic cirrhosis diagnosis. We compared prevalence in cases to the control population and used logistic regression to derive odds ratios (95% CI). RESULTS: Fifty-eight per cent of cases compared to 29% of controls had had at least one alcohol-attributable condition before cirrhosis diagnosis. The most frequent conditions (proportion in cases vs. controls) were intentional injuries (35.9% vs. 11.9%) and cardiovascular diseases (23.2% vs. 15.6%), followed by diabetes (12.8% vs. 5.3%), digestive diseases (6.1% vs. 1.2%) and epilepsy (5.0% vs. 1.1%). The strongest association with alcoholic cirrhosis was found for digestive diseases [OR 5.4 (4.4-6.7)], epilepsy [OR: 4.4 (3.5-5.5)] and injuries [OR: 4.0 (3.7-4.4)] particularly among those aged 18-44 years. CONCLUSION: These data highlight the high burden of other alcohol-attributable conditions in patients prior to alcoholic cirrhosis diagnosis. Reviewing those consistently presenting with any of these conditions more closely could help practitioners reduce/avoid the long-term consequences of development of alcoholic liver disease.

Sex and age differences in the early identification and treatment of alcohol use: a population-based study of patients with alcoholic cirrhosis.

AIM: To estimate sex differences in health-care utilization among harmful/hazardous drinkers in the period before alcoholic cirrhosis diagnosis, and estimate sex differences in the extent to which alcohol use and brief alcohol interventions were documented for these individuals compared with a control cohort. DESIGN: Retrospective study using linked general practice and hospital admissions data in England. SETTING: Three hundred and fifty-seven general practitioner (GP) practices in England. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2479 individuals with alcoholic cirrhosis (mean age at diagnosis=56 years), of whom 67% were men; and 24,790 controls without the disease. MEASUREMENTS: Rates of primary care visits and hospital admissions prior to the diagnosis of alcoholic cirrhosis for men and women, and the proportion of men and women with alcohol consumption and/or alcohol brief intervention documented in their medical record. FINDINGS: Compared with the general population, patients with alcoholic cirrhosis used primary and secondary health-care services more frequently in the years leading up to their diagnosis. In the years prior to diagnosis, men used primary and secondary health-care services more than did women (P for sex interaction P<0.0001). Men were more likely than women to have their alcohol use recorded [odds ratio (OR) men=1.96, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.7-2.3; women=1.63, 95% CI=1.4-1.8, P for sex interaction P<0.0017]. By contrast, alcohol interventions were recorded more commonly among women (OR men=4.3, 95% CI=3.7-4.9; women=5.8, 95% CI=4.7-6.9, P for sex interaction=0.07), although less common with increasing age (P for age interaction=0.009). CONCLUSIONS: In the United Kingdom, prior to alcoholic cirrhosis diagnosis, excess health-care utilization is higher in men than women and men are more likely than women to have their alcohol use recorded. However, women appear to be more likely than men to receive alcohol brief interventions.

Use of neuraminidase inhibitors for rapid containment of influenza: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual and household transmission studies.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for use in rapid containment of influenza. METHOD: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis in accordance with the PRISMA statement. Healthcare databases and sources of grey literature were searched up to 2012 and records screened against protocol eligibility criteria. Data extraction and risk of bias assessments were performed using a piloted form. Results were synthesised narratively and we undertook meta-analyses to calculate pooled estimates of effect, statistical heterogeneity and assessed publication bias. FINDINGS: Nine randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and eight observational studies met the inclusion criteria. Neuraminidase inhibitors provided 67 to 89% protection for individuals following prophylaxis. Meta-analysis of individual protection showed a significantly lower pooled odds of laboratory confirmed seasonal or influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection following oseltamivir usage compared to placebo or no therapy (n = 8 studies; odds ratio (OR) = 0.11; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.06 to 0.20; p<0.001; I2 = 58.7%). This result was comparable to the pooled odds ratio for individual protection with zanamivir (OR = 0.23; 95% CI 0.16 to 0.35). Similar point estimates were obtained with widely overlapping 95% CIs for household protection with oseltamivir or zanamivir. We found no studies of neuraminidase inhibitors to prevent population-wide community transmission of influenza. CONCLUSION: Oseltamivir and zanamivir are effective for prophylaxis of individuals and households irrespective of treatment of the index case. There are no data which directly support an effect on wider community transmission. PROTOCOL REGISTRY: PROSPERO registration number: CRD42013003880.

Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of internal and international travel restrictions in the rapid containment of influenza. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review according to the requirements of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Health-care databases and grey literature were searched and screened for records published before May 2014. Data extraction and assessments of risk of bias were undertaken by two researchers independently. Results were synthesized in a narrative form. FINDINGS: The overall risk of bias in the 23 included studies was low to moderate. Internal travel restrictions and international border restrictions delayed the spread of influenza epidemics by one week and two months, respectively. International travel restrictions delayed the spread and peak of epidemics by periods varying between a few days and four months. Travel restrictions reduced the incidence of new cases by less than 3%. Impact was reduced when restrictions were implemented more than six weeks after the notification of epidemics or when the level of transmissibility was high. Travel restrictions would have minimal impact in urban centres with dense populations and travel networks. We found no evidence that travel restrictions would contain influenza within a defined geographical area. CONCLUSION: Extensive travel restrictions may delay the dissemination of influenza but cannot prevent it. The evidence does not support travel restrictions as an isolated intervention for the rapid containment of influenza. Travel restrictions would make an extremely limited contribution to any policy for rapid containment of influenza at source during the first emergence of a pandemic virus.